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14215342

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  • Update: Luna Gold's Q2 Production Falls Due To Heavy Rain, Partner Sandstorm Gold Suffers As Well [View article]
    David...your assuming the normal situation is the processing of higher grade ore...is that the historical case ? Ton for ton... the mine has more lower grade then high grade ore, so the normal case would be processing lower grade ore would it not ?

    In any case ...grammatical or investment, Luna needs a higher gold price to produce more profit, if as those who predict $3,000.00 gold are right the stock will climb, and the company will book excellent profit, indeed the balancing act is to repay all of Sandstrom's due, at lower selling price for gold, and retain higher value gold ( when/if it hits $3,000.00 ) in order to return more value to Luna shareholders. This of course needs to be done with a resonable cash flow to cover expenses and not have to borrow money to operate the mine as a losing propostion as Sandstrom is paid off.
    Jul 29 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Luna Gold's Q2 Production Falls Due To Heavy Rain, Partner Sandstorm Gold Suffers As Well [View article]
    I am concerned that the engineering preparadness for the mine, has overlooked the fact it rains... a lot in the Coastal areas of Maranhao. The annual rainfall can be up to 3000 mm with April getting 18 inches of rain.

    So drainage from the mine pit ... apparently cannot handle the volumes of rain making the processing activity rely on stockpiled material, the question being why stockpile is of low grade ore versus high grade ?

    On an ongoing basis it must be clear mine management has to improve drainage issues to be able to produce at a regularized rate in every month dry season or wet, or to have an appropriate mine and store program to regularize processing in the mine mill.

    NI 43-101 Technical report indicated design of the mine pit took into account heavy periods of rain with a production schedule to not have ( one assumes ) reports that indicate production drops because of rain in the Amazon.

    What affect does the lowered production have on labour cost ?

    If the contractors doing work are standing around when it rains, and are being paid to stand around it increases production costs, and Brasil's general labour cost has been rising in the past two years so you wonder what the squeeze is in terms of cost per ounze produced and available for sale.

    At $1,350 oz selling price, and 20% labour cost to extract and process, a ten percent labour cost increase represents $27.00 ounze extra costing, a twenty percend labour cost increase pushes it to $54.00 per oz extra for labour.

    Today 28/07/2014 gold is at $1301.00....

    So drop in gold price and presumed increase in labour cost due to rain... hits bottom line badly, it is important mine management ensure the production flow is steady and not based on quarterly up's and down's at the whim of rain patterns.
    Jul 28 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Petrobras: Why This $10 Oil Stock Bargain Could Once Again Be Trading For $50 In 6 Years [View article]
    BRL to CDN ( my currency )
    07-04-2013 BRL equals .51 CDN
    07-04-2013 BRL equals .4939 CDN

    I will take my nine percent growth ...thanks, perhaps the lesson here is it depends on where your looking from and to, Investors outside the USD economy have differing views on return on capital.

    The US dollar functions as strong currency in times of trouble, but many other currencys retain the relative value against each other, i.e. the USD floats up but everyone stays the same.

    That creates oppourtunity or allows for differing decisions.
    Apr 8 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Petrobras: Why This $10 Oil Stock Bargain Could Once Again Be Trading For $50 In 6 Years [View article]
    Current price $10.91, earnings in 2014 $1.81 payout 38 cents, government influenced golden shares which hold back the payout of dividends, that will flow out as USD, so no real appetite on the part of Petrobras to up the payout, why would I buy if I am looking for a solid dividend paying stock ?

    I can invest my money in a Poupanca account in a Brasilian Bank ( Banco do Brasil ) or in HSBC Brasil and earn upwards of 10% with less risk.
    Mar 20 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlantic Power Corp declares C$0.033 dividend [View news story]
    So if I had bought at $2.11 today I would earn .033 cents per month ... ( X 12 one hopes ) or 39.6 cents a share over the year i would be earning 18.76 percent.

    If I bought at $5.80 today i would earn .033 per month or 39.6 cents a share, over the year I would earn 6.8% on my investment.

    If I go to my bank today they pay me.02% maybe, so is the return all that bad ?

    Yes this is a stock that tanked in 2013, and your correct management may be incompetent, but there has to be some reality to the payout and the underlying value of the assets, for someone looking anew ... the risk vs return might well be fine, if it drops to 1.41 and pays out .0165 cents per share I would earn .066% on a share I bought at 2.82 today.
    Mar 14 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Reasons Why I Am Bullish On Vale S.A. [View article]
    1/31/2014

    Vale proposes US$ 4.2 billion for 2014 minimum dividend


    Page Content
    Vale announces that its Executive Board has approved and will submit to the Board of Directors a proposal for the distribution of a minimum dividend of US$ 4.2 billion in 2014, equivalent to US$ 0.814999890 per share for both common and preferred shares outstanding, to be distributed in two installments, on April 30 and October 31, 2014.

    The Board of Directors will evaluate the proposal submitted by the senior management in the meetings scheduled for April 14 and October 16, 2014.

    If the proposal is approved by our Board of Directors, the payment of each installment will be made in Brazilian reais, calculated on the basis of the Brazilian real/US dollar exchange rate (Ptax - option 5) published by the Central Bank of Brazil on the business day prior to the Board of Directors meeting that approves the dividend proposal.

    The proposed minimum dividend is consistent with Vale's financial policy, which aims to provide a strong support to the exploitation of profitable growth opportunities alongside the preservation of a sound balance sheet.



    Feb 12 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Reasons Why I Am Bullish On Vale S.A. [View article]
    The issue with Vale as has been pointed out by others is the major shareholder is the Government of Brasil and they can manipulate Vale decisions and investements to meet internal Brasilian poliltical needs.

    The chump share holder gets little of what should be dividend producing company at this stage of its life.

    BHP pays 3.70% on a 63.36 valuation or $2.34

    Vale pays .008 on a 13.96 valuation or 11 cents

    4.5 Vale shares equals one BHP and yeilds 44 cents.

    So Vale is only a buy for those speculating in a capital gain, i.e. betting Vale will rise but how much does it need to rise ... to make the investment.

    4.5 Vale shares = 63.36 on a one year hold hoping to gain a payback equal to an investment in BHP... we need a .0375% increase in Vale shares to match what investing in BHP earns us, then we need to sell the Vale shares to put the money in our pocket.

    So each value share has to grow by 52 cents or go to 14.42 per share.

    As of today ... Morgan Stanley say.... Vale (VALE +2.6%) has underperformed other major miners in the past year and now trades at a 30% discount to Australian competitor Rio Tinto in forward P/E - too cheap, according to Morgan Stanley analysts who upgrade shares to Buy with a $17.50 price target.

    So they are claiming a increase that will make Vale trade at the same ratio as Rio Tinto... i.e. about a 25% rise in Vale.

    So if the minds at Morgan Stanley are right a 13.96 share becomes a 17.50 share with a capital gain of $3.54 ( and if we times it by the 4.5 to BHP ) 14.16 realizable on a investment of 63.36 and poor old BHP is only going to pay out 2.34, giving the Vale Play a 11.82 upside...

    Now what is 11.82 as payout on 66.86 is 17%.

    Looks good if you think Vale is going up 25% in the next year and you want to sell out at $17.00 to 17.50 and look for a new place to invest.

    But if I keep my BHP investment its paying me 2.34 a year and in four years it matches the payout on Vale ... with considerable lower risk factors.

    The same issues with China are face with BHP, but they do not have any one to answer to but the share holders, Vale is not in that position.

    So I would rather invest in BHP ... at 66.86 with a upside to 80.00 and that nice cash payout of 2.34 per share.
    Feb 5 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Small Cap Gold Miner That Could Provide Outsized Returns In 2014 [View article]
    Luna Gold's operation in the Maranhao are going to be affected by the need of the State Government to invest in new Prison construction to alleviate the issues at Pedrinhas prison.

    Locals near the mine will use its shut down of production as an ongoing tactic to get the attention of the Sarney family who run the state.

    There will need to be greater expenses for security, remember this mine has been robbed once with no apparent success in finding out who robbed them of the gold.... many would suspect it was a job done by those in the Police who may well be corrupted by low pay and little incentive to improve state security.

    All that said Luna looks attractive at its near yearly low for the year.
    Jan 28 05:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target's Credit/Debit Data Breach Not Catastrophic [View article]
    So Target even at the current today quote of $58.58 is not yet an attractive buy given your valuation system till its hits $52.00 another $6.58 of bad news to make it an attractive stock to pick up, or expressed in percentage with 58.58 representing 100% a 11% further decline in capital value for a stock that pays out a current yield of 2.90% or $1.69 per share.

    So even if the percentage dividend return increases real dollar payout unless earnings change will remain at $1.69 per share.

    The question remains for the dividend investor, is this the stock you want to be in today for long term or to purchase in the belief real dollar per share earnings will increase ?
    Jan 23 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale raises $150M by selling stakes in logistics, chemicals companies [View news story]
    Is this a fire sale ?
    Dec 27 03:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investor Warning: Vale Will Lose Its Tax Fight With Brazil [View article]
    Published today....25 -11 2013

    http://bit.ly/1b2kGJu

    A Civil Action filed by the Ministry of Labor in Maranhão ( MPT - MA ) resulted in the conviction of miner Vale R $ 18.9 million for collective moral damages . The company breached various provisions of the environment and safety , culminating in the death of five employees in the capital of Maranhão .

    The value of the collective moral damages equivalent to 0.05 % of the net profit earned by Vale in 2011 - U.S. $ 37.8 billion . Beyond this amount , Vale may pay a daily fine of R $ 200 thousand ( up to a limit of U.S. $ 20 million ) if not fulfilled obligations to 31 within 60 days. The measure aims to ensure the physical integrity of workers in the mining and service providers .

    " This sentence should serve as a pedagogical character so that other companies do not neglect the compliance. Some of the irregularities contributed to the fatal accident occurred in the area of the Valley , "said the chief prosecutor of the MPT - MA , Anya Gadea Diogenes .

    In Maranhão , MPT investigates the Valley since 2007 . Throughout this period , the institution opened six civil investigations to ascertain serious accusations of negligence standards of health, environment and safety .

    One of the worst episodes perpetrated by Vale occurred in April 2010 , when seven workers who provided services at Pier 3 of the Port of Ponta da Madeira terminal in St. Louis , was hit by a rail carrier of ore . Two of them were killed by head crushing and asphyxiation ( Hercules Nogueria Cross and Ronilson da Silva ) and five others injured .

    The other three fatalities were Clement Rodrigues Neto , who suffered a fall of almost 15 feet high ; Lusivan Pires Ribeiro and Nilton Freitas Born - these two belonged to the subcontractors by the mining company - and they had died in the operating area of ​​the Valley .

    Besides fulfilling the obligations to make the mining shall ensure that subcontractors also abide by the court decision . Among the measures to be adopted are : Deployment Program for Prevention of Environmental Risks and Measures for the prevention of occupational accidents and diseases ; provision of appropriate personal protective equipment , installation of resistant physical barriers in areas with risk of people falling and equipment at sea , providing clean , filtered water and fresh for workers , among other determinations .

    The judgment was signed by the judge of the 7th Labor Court of São Luís , Francisco Tarcisio Almeida Araujo .

    The decision may be appealed .

    A Civil Action against Vale mining company is the No. 0153600-86.2012.5.16.0022
    Nov 26 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Buy Of The Month: Target Corporation [View article]
    I agree with you Seth..and heading into what may well be a very weak sales wind for Christmas 2013, Target may be discounting prices well in advance of the last minute Xmas shoppers who have to buy something, and that means gross margins get squeezed over the most important season.

    Retail choice purchases will suffer this XMAS in the Canadian Retail market, cutting back on gift buying and giving kids cash will increase, that means kids will buy tech and clothes but only for the Boxing day sales in Canada.

    When I look at locations for Target Stores they are in underperforming malls ( at least in my area ), and Target has not been around long enough to change that pattern in one of the best retail markets in Canada.
    Nov 18 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nike, Inc. Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    So adidas is not a peer ? http://bit.ly/Hx8EAu
    Oct 31 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target: An Undervalued Dividend-Growth Star [View article]
    Target with 120 stores in Canada...will be between 6 and 10% of Target outlets, Target has already admitted it cannot use the US pricing points in Canada and initial consumer reaction is that prices are no different then Canadian existing stores.

    So will Canadian stores be drain on profit ? Will Target get a bloodied nose going into Canada to be the price leader and finding out if they are not the consumer will drive 100km to a US based store ?

    <<While Target's current sub 3.00% yield may appear low, its dividend growth rate certainly is not. Over the past 10 years, Target's annual dividend increases have averaged nearly 20%. This past June, Target rewarded it shareholders with a 19% increase in its dividend to $0.43 per share from $0.36 per share.>>
    Quarterly Dividends if 20% increase rate is held up

    2012 - .36
    2013 - .43
    2014 - .51
    2015 - .61


    At the current stock price 01-10-2013 of 63.87 holds and dividend is $2.44 on 63.87 invested, return is 3.8% if the stock price climbs to its current 52 week high of 73.50 return is 3.3 % ....

    If the Canadian stores return no profit ( and remember Canadian dollars are being pressed down to a .86 cent target by the Central Bank, so any Canadian dollar profits are smaller ) the 3.3% yield could be very hard to maintain.
    Oct 1 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale sells $1.2B in cargo stakes, lines up further sales [View news story]
    Would be good to see Brookfield get involved and encourage development of full rail connect through the Darrien Gap to Canada to allow shipping of Canadian Manufactured goods to Columbia and other Canadian Free Trade zones in South America with return of agricultural goods.
    Sep 19 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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