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Captain Pike

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  • American Eagle Energy: Shares Could Be Buoyed By Another Brutal Winter [View article]
    I just read it, I learned a little, slickwater seems promising, $6 mill or so for each new well, their hedging in place;

    "We currently have crude oil hedges in place for fourth quarter 2014 at an average price of $90.40 per barrel for 1,600 barrels per day, hedges for the first half of 2015 at an average price of $89.72 per barrel for 1,200 barrels per day and hedges for the second half of 2015 at an average price of $89.21 per barrel for 800 barrels per day."

    But that still tells me nothing, as far as the big picture of what shape they will be in if oil stays @$60 next year. They seem to be a bit too optimistic with their talk of modeling everything @$90 oil. I think I will wait for someone to do a comprehensive model @60.

    I did know this from the CEO of ETP and now from one of his subordinates as related in another SA article;

    "To answer the million-dollar [6] breakeven oil price question, Hennigan noted that the breakeven price for oil sands and offshore deepwater production has been increasing since 2010, whereas the breakeven price for shale oil has been decreasing to $65 per barrel from $80 over that same time period. In short: Permian production won't be slowing down anytime soon."

    IF the saudi's are determined to keep oil @60 to break US shale oil drillers, it will not only hurt the E&P guys but hurt the general economy as the demand for steel and other items by the oil industry was what was making the economy go. The low energy cost will help the consumer though. What we need to do is get off oil and onto home grown Solar and BEV's. I had once thought it it would be 5 years for this to happen but the saudi's seem bent on cutting off their nose's.
    Dec 10, 2014. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Declining Oil Prices Convey A Bearish Outlook For Guggenheim Solar ETF [View article]
    You are aware that it was GW's program that gave Tesla it's $500 mil funding to enable it to become a real company, right? And that Obungler has done nothing to further/nurture BEV's like grants to build along interstate highways? Also Obungler has done nothing to help companies like Semprius Solar to succeed. In fact Obungler's hatred of coal has done a lot to stop progress of clean coal tech.

    Neither party has a good track record of forward thinking on energy. We have no energy policy. We are lucky we had some republican businessmen pursuing riches in some out of the way places to save the economy with shale oil.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Eagle Energy: Shares Could Be Buoyed By Another Brutal Winter [View article]
    Wow, this stock and thread has to be one of the more devastating since the dot com meltdown, but if they can tread water or oil and survive until oil stabilizes next year, then maybe could be a good deal at these prices.

    Does anyone have the links to definitive statements by management as to the hedging exact figures, the expenses they must meet, and what total income will be under most likely scenario including hedging and non-hedged streams?

    I know bilow did a knapkin calculation above, but something a little more definintive. And what is the cost of production of a barrel for them today? If they did no capex and just sat on their hands pumping what they are pumping today, what is the total cost of a barrel right now, that includes all expenses (interest, overhead, current production)/ total daily barrels? What is their REAL cost to get a barrel out of the ground vs. the market price?
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Expect WTI To Go Back To $100 [View article]
    TA says; "Back in 2008, the argument was made, people just keep burning oil regardless of price, $4 gasoline was nothing. Something gave, pretty quick, it was the US consumer."

    That is one of the more silly things I have read here. Who in their right mind was saying that? A few 1%'s at some country club?

    The majority of the public back then were getting squeezed by gas prices to the point that very many had to choose between getting to work and paying the mortgage on the house they couldn't afford. In the long run oil will stay around $80 imo as it slowly gets replaced as BEV's and hopefully rail/natgas fleets pervail.
    Dec 4, 2014. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty settles lawsuit with RCS over Cole [View news story]
    whatever shorty
    Dec 4, 2014. 09:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of TV As We Know It [View article]
    well it is the only one I have ever seen and even though I don't frequent MF it was kinda compelling mixed with the fact that I always like to learn. Anyway it was very similar to your article. The interesting part was about google buying up all the internet backbone that it could years ago.
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar stocks continue plunging; oil at $68/barrel [View news story]
    I agree, Solar is the real deal for the long run just as BEV's are, humps and bumps down the oil road will not have much effect. People are so easily conditioned, WOW $2.50 gasoline is such a deal, NOT. With the cost of solar coming down and efficiency going up, a home system will make lighting/heating/driving almost free while oil/gas will still give pain at the pump and meter.

    People need to stop looking so short term, solar/thorium/fusion are the future and near future.
    Dec 1, 2014. 04:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of TV As We Know It [View article]
    this was just like that motley fool presentation I watched.
    Dec 1, 2014. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: The Majority Of Oasis' Acreage Isn't Economic At Today's Oil Price [View article]
    Some temporary pain for some companies, but kind of a cut your nose off to spite your face move by the oil industry generally. This oil will not disappear and the tech for recovering will continue to improve and get cheaper, so all this does is provide an insurance policy to consumers to keep prices low. -- Which is great! ---- But the Saudi's and friends will be pumping at levels that will not sustain their state budgets and will not be able to return to higher pricing.

    Oil itself is now just a bridge fuel anyways. I just wish we had some real leadership that would go all in on tech and infrastructure to move us into the next era with solar/thorium/fusion.
    Dec 1, 2014. 11:14 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paradox Of Cheap Oil [View article]
    I see it differently, as long as oil is VERY cheap and not the $140/barrel stuff, then let them exchange their valuable 1 use resource for our worthless paper anyday. Fiat Money is worthless, so is gold for the most part, just a means of oiling the barter system within US boundaries, not a store of value. It is also a low labor product. The TV on the other hand represents jobs and factories, value-added.

    Plus the goal of the economy should be to get off oil/gas and onto solar as fast as possible for truly low cost, energy independence, that will allow the economy to recover itself back to the days pre-1973 oil embargo. Once that happens, we will not have to trade with anyone on anything but our own terms thanks to our resources, which will allow a much higher standard of living.
    Dec 1, 2014. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paradox Of Cheap Oil [View article]
    So much logic FAIL here. BTW all you folks had to do was read my comments from the last few years to know what was coming. Anyway, Brian the Fed doesn't raise rates for the sake of raising rates, or at least it shouldn't. High rates are NO GOOD. Learn your economic history, look at the period of 1947-1967, look at the strength/health/stability of that period economically. Oil price never grew by more than 2% pr annum, rates averaged very low and the economy boomed.

    Oil controls the economy and inflation, always has, in the future, that will change to energy controls the economy.

    High cost of OIL being produced? Really? Don't you mean high cost of new wells? It would have to get a bit cheaper I think to make existing wells uneconomic, this is more about delaying any new production, until these clever guys figure out how to do it cheaper.
    Nov 28, 2014. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties' Dividend: What We Know, What We Might Know, And What We Can't Know [View article]
    You have a LOT TO LEARN and not just about stocks. The other Reit I mentioned is up 30% this year, DOES NOT COVER it's dividend from FFO and uses the drip money and sales of other companies stock it holds to fund it operations/divvy as it grows to a point where it will cover its divvy from FFO. That is not all that uncommon with reits. And not bad as long as the company is well managed and on a path of intelligent growth.

    The other point is that as was hinted at it seems in this page, that NS somehow has the power of the FORCE to manipulate all around to fleece everyone for his own ends and everything ARCP does is below boards. The BOD, the same BOD that let the acct. cat out of the bag and hired all the investigators, made the public offering happen, not NS and the exec's that some want to say are pulling a fast one.
    Nov 25, 2014. 10:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties' Dividend: What We Know, What We Might Know, And What We Can't Know [View article]
    I spend too much time on SA hunting down things that I KNOW, just to get the exact quote, and this particular subject has come up in past articles. IT WAS the BOD that made the decision to do the equity raise in the spring.

    Another thing, I did not read every line of your article closely, did you include the drip funds in there somewhere, I know of one very well regarded reit that uses the cash conserved by the drip to good effect.
    Nov 25, 2014. 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties' Dividend: What We Know, What We Might Know, And What We Can't Know [View article]
    Yeah I agree with grox, real info better than armchair guesser's.

    "We have simplified the business by not only selling our multi-tenant division, netting $1.4 billion last week that we received,................ Our knowledge of the transaction was obviously not of the information that we received late on Friday as we received $1.4 billion last week and paid down our line with it."

    Oct. 29 conf call^^

    As to their financing, even though I have seen all the stuff more than once I tend to forget the minutia, my guess is they have tried to pay off high interest stuff, in favor of lower rate stuff.

    Another point, you say management wanted the $12 equity raise, I don't know who YOU mean by management, but MY understanding is that it was the BOD that made that decision, which includes Ed Rendell. I have said it before and will say it again, if that had been a lie, Ed would not have let it go, and Ed is on record SINCE the blow-up as saying this is basically making mountains out of molehills.

    Wait for official word,
    Nov 25, 2014. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gundlach: Boxed-in Fed has to hike rates in 2015 [View news story]
    rates are going nowhere
    Nov 24, 2014. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment