Now……Lets Talk Charts!

Amsurg Corp (AMSG)

Talk about consistency, Amsurg a healthcare facilities stock has always reported a positive inline earnings report for the past 3 years (’08,’09’10) and I can bet that they will report inline or perhaps beat on their next earnings call…meaning….we do not need to worry about the fundamentals of this company.  The company is doing just fine….which leaves us with the pleasure of analyzing the technicals.  AMSG is right on the breakout how it got there was by investors pouring in lots of volume to the upside.  This chart is in a classic breakout formation.  AMSG is definitely going higher!

Resistance: 22.01

Support: 21.00
 

AngioDynamics Inc (ANGO)

This Medical Equipment and Supplies maker beat analyst expectations on Jan 4^th, but the stock has since pulled back after investors got excited the company beat its earnings.  Since the stock pulled back near its support line investors have piled in ANGO.  I think they are piling in to drive this stock once again higher!

Resistance: 17.75

Support: 16.01
 

G&K Services Inc (GKSR)

Having just reported and beaten analyst expectations in its earnings on Feb-1^st, GKSR has been constantly trending higher; I see no reason to jump ship, especially since investors think the same.  On Friday record volume to the upside sent this stock slightly to the breakout, get in before it’s too late, GKSR is going higher!

Resistance: None the breakout will continue until a new resistance level is formed

Support: 32.07

Olin Corp (OLN)

Our interest in this chemical manufacturing company is purely technical.  This stock has been in a sideways channel for the past 9months, I think the stock will bounce off 18.66 and rally up to 20.50.  The stock also has a catalyst: It beat its earnings expectations on Jan-31 by over 400%!

Resistance: 20.89

Support: 18.66

Steelcase Inc (SCS)

After beating its earnings expectations by over 30% on Dec-16, the stock has gone higher.  However,  Steelcase Inc has seen recent slight pullback allowing investors to reenter near the 9.95-10.00 range I don’t think a recent bottom justifies what’s going on; investors are excited that the company has been doing well, and they want its upward trend to continue.  Given the heavy volume to the upside Friday and its positive price action, SCS is going back up to the breakout.

Resistance: 11.27

Support: 9.95

Lets Talk Charst 7 Review
Wow we did very well this week, we made a popular 24.60% in one week monstly thanks to the rally in INFN.  Results are based on buying the equity on the closing price of Jan-28th and selling on close of Friday Feb-4th




Wow protests in Egypt spark a buying opportunity in Eygpt and made the sell off on Friday more dramatic!  

Lets Talk Charts: (Note: All Charts provide are compliments of StockCharts.com)

H & R Block (HRB)

We’re in tax season what better time to pick this stock!  HRB has had a pretty rough past 6 months.  Despite 10,000 shares and over 130,000 call options being awarded to its insiders since September (marking an 80% increase in y/y insider transactions), investors have seized to take notice and have continued to sell the stock making it under perform the market.  The stock has not been able to do anything since September.  However, since September H&B block has slowly formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders formation which coupled with an upgrade from Northland securities on jan-27^th makes this stock look very attractive.  Northland securities prices H&R Block with a $20 price target. 

Support: $12.35

Resistance: $14.05

Abington Bancorp (ABBC)

After beating its earnings by 12.5% (0.09 over 0.08) on Jan-26^th ABBC broke out on on Jan-27^th on heavy volume.  The day after the breakout (Jan-28^th), profit taking was light and more buyers came into the stock (Note: ABBC was down only 0.56% when the NASDAQ closed down 2.48% on Jan-28th).  This stock has positive operating margins of 20%+ clearly beating its closest competitor Beneficial Mutual Bancorp who has negative 10% operating margins over the past 12 months.  ABBC is going higher!

Support: $11.90

Resistance: None the breakout implies there is no current overhead

Infinera Corp. (INFN)

This stock got slammed on Friday after it BEAT earnings by over 70%, yet its guidance was not confidence inspiring.  Additionally, the stock got triple downgrades between $7-$8 price targets on Friday.  The stock was already 35% below 52 week high prior to its earnings release.  After the earnings release the stock got slammed for another 18% drop.  INFN is now 41% below it September high, needless to say market has oversold the stock.  The pullback has been very technical, and the next direction the stock goes will also be very technical.  INFN is currently trading at its previous August breakout level of $7.4, thus the stock may be trading at support right now, in which case it should rally to fill the gap to at least $8.00

Support: $7.4

Resistance: $8.00  

Suncor Energy (SU)

Suncor Energy just broke out from an upward wedge formation on great volume.  Apart from a technically bullish perspective, Dennis Gartman on CNBC’s Fast Money mentioned that due to the political unrest in Egypt the Suez Canal may be closed for due time, causing the US to increase its demand of oil from Canada, meaning SU would sell more oil and make more money = Stock goes up!

Support: $39.65

Resistance: None

Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL)

This South West regional bank holding company ha been on the rise over the past few months, the stock did not even fall on Friday when the market booked a heavy sell off.  Instead WAL has been getting loaded with buyers eager to breakout the stock!!!  The chart shows investors had bid it up intraday on Jan-27^th but it could not close above the breakout giving us an opportunity to get in. 

Support: $7.40

Resistance: $7.70

Ah yes, another financial newsletter website thinking it can draw subscribers using the allure of great stock picking capabilities.  Fortunately, TheOxenGroup.com is a very successful site run by David Ristau who makes over 200 stock trades a year, and is correct over 70% of the time.  His secret?  His brain.  David does not use algorithms or computer generated back testing to choose his stocks.  Instead, David combines his knowledge of fundamental and technical analysis to search through stocks that fit his criteria of overbought or oversold and to base his recommendations.  After reviewing the website I was skeptical, but after seeing the trading results I found that it was actually possible to make a decent living by following this trades.

                In 2010 David made 199 trades in his buy pick portfolio

Lets look at Davids 2010 Buy Pick Portfolio results:

Note: You will see some trades with black boxes around them; this indicates that David was in 2 or more trades, in which case the investor would have to borrow. 

So did everyone see over 70% green in the returns column?  I wasn’t sure, so I counted.  I found that David had been wrong on 55 Buy Pick Trades in 2010…and I’m including the trades that made 0%.  This means that David was correct on 135 trades. 

Lets do the math: 135/190 total trades = 71% (Indeed, David was over 70% accurate!)

Now let’s put some money to work.  Let’s assume we had a margin account (with up to 4 to 1 margin) and $10,000 to spend on every trade David recommends.  Yet every time we make a gain or loss we do not raise or lower the investment amount.  We always invest $10,000 in each trade.  You will notice in December David was in four trades on the same day.  This would mean someone with a margin account would need $40,000 to invest because we would need to invest 10,000 in each position.  Have no fear because as you will see by December one would not need to borrow much money, because the stock pile of profits would be so rich. 

To make sure you’re following correctly: we start off losing 2% in the first trade on Jan-5^th using SRS, so we lose $200.  But if you add up the monthly percentages, we come out with a gain of 19.83% ($1,983) in the first month!  As you scroll down and see the percentages of each months total gains you see in that The Oxen Group never has never had a losing month.  Even as the market corrected in May due to the Greek Crisis, and August David’s trades still prevailed.  By the end of the year we had a 396.44% gain.

Lets do the math again (396.44%*10000) + 10000 initial investment = 49644

Wow a yearly gain of 39644 is quite a lot of money….it’s more than I get paid at my work. 

But not so fast…….I never added commissions nor margin interest rates. 

Lets see…..lets assume one were to use Scott Trade = $7 trade.

199 trades*$14($7 to buy + $7 to sell) = $2,786 commissions

So $39,644 profit – $2,786 commissions = $36,858

Now lets assume a horrible margin interest rate of 8%.  I counted 41 times that we would possibly need to borrow money.  That’s only 41 days a year at 8% on 10,000.  Lets see 8%*10,000 = 800

41days using margin/365days a year = .1123

.1123*800 = $89.84 (only $89.84 to for total margin fees)

$36,858 – $89.84 = $36,786.16

Now we must deduct the dreaded 28% short term capital gains tax!

.72 * $36,786.16 = $26,486.03

Thus our grand total of profits = $26,486.03

In conclusion, one can either work for $12.73/hour (40 hours a week), or join www.TheOxenGroup.com and pay their simple $60 a month subscription fee for their Buy Side Picks and get started on making some money.  Or, you can also pay their $130 a month Premium subscription which entitles you to Short Sales Picks which were over 80% accurate in ’10 and David’s Long Term Ratings Portfolio geared towards a less active long term investor. 

I have used The Oxen Group for a total of 14 trading days and I’m already up 11.55%