nickgogerty

http://www.gogerty.com

164 Comments

    • Another Depression? [view article]
      The Depression had many quantitative aspects. The use of the word is a bit over the top unless the user expects impacts that are of the same magnitude. 25% unemployment. 25% GDP contraction. nickgogerty.typepad.co... Aug 27 09:31 AM
    • Solar Generation Costs on Track to Achieve Grid Parity [view article]
      last year Solar grew 40-50% in production with roughly 4gw produced. Global nameplate electric capacity is roughly 4,000gw=4Tw. solar produces at roughly 30% of nameplate meaning the world produced 1.33gw of comparative capacity. the effective price of solar varies as a function of insolation (sun/sq/meter/yr). There is more than enough head room for even a solar "niche" of a few 100GW, which at a fully levellized parity cost would be a $900-1,000b/year market. Aug 27 09:22 AM
    • Russia's Strategic Intent To Use Energy as a Weapon Has Increased [view article]
      History will will most likely not view Russia's incursion into Georgia as productive for the human condition there. Aug 22 10:45 AM
    • Managing Wealth During Bear Markets [view article]
      For fun you may want to include comparisons with the GSCI, Mar Hedge and some of the spot rolling approaches indeces. Active CTAs have indeces to beat as well. The safest bet is a quasi passive extractaction of the inherent auto-correlation of most contracts. Aug 21 09:36 AM
    • 15 Value Hedge Funds - Portfolio Update [view article]
      Meb is a pretty bright guy and synthesis of other concepts can be very useful. Aug 21 09:29 AM
    • The Great Consumer Crash of 2009 [view article]
      The film IOUSA comes out on Aug 21st. Should be interesting. www.agorafinancial.com... Aug 14 10:59 AM
    • A Million Bucks Ain't What It Used to Be [view article]
      this could explain it. nickgogerty.typepad.co...

      a good video on the CPI and GDP deflator calculations...       Aug 13 10:11 AM
    • Russia: Beware the Bear [view article]
      I think the analysis is spot on. Dangers are lurking in a fragile and corrupt regime. The easy money will wash out and nationalism in economic and political form will take over. the next 3 years are dangerous especially for former satelites. Aug 13 09:59 AM
    • iPhone App Developers Find Weaknesses in AT&T's Fake Walls [view article]
      Most telco's are closed systems by design and now by business model requirement. Does anyone really believe that overpriced PSTN service won't be bumped by IP based services. $0.15 txt messages etc. are the dinasours diet. The Telco's are in a commodity business, they just don't know it yet. The future is going to see telcos eeking out smaller margins as they really only supply pipes. Bits is bits. IP uber alles. Aug 12 09:11 AM
    • Using Futures To Hedge Your House [view article]
      It should be noted, that variance in the underlying future will require significant capital (for most people) available for margin calls, say 10% of the underlying. Aug 12 08:59 AM
    • Wind Turbines: The New Renewable Bull Market [view article]
      bearings and hobbing machines are also in short supply and constraining demand. Aug 08 01:12 PM
    • The Stealth Depression [view article]
      here is a Reuters video highlighting the problem with New York Cities foodbank. uk.reuters.com/news/vi...

      It is estimated under the new metrics for poverty used by Mayor Bloomberg that 23% of New Yorkers live below the poverty line.       Aug 08 12:54 PM
    • Credit Crisis: How Could So Many Be So Wrong? [view article]
      Free Money is sometimes called the beautiful lie. We all wanted to believe. Aug 07 01:59 PM
    • Credit Crisis: How Could So Many Be So Wrong? [view article]
      Free money is the beautiful lie. Kindelberger mentions it. We all wanted to believe. Aug 07 01:58 PM
    • The Great Bubble of China: Next to Pop? [view article]
      nickgogerty.typepad.co...

      totally agree. I put 60% a chance of regime change within 15 months.       Aug 07 01:56 PM
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