nickgogerty

http://www.gogerty.com
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209 Comments

    • Tue Oct 28th 09:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ultimate Economic Showdown: China vs. the U.S.
      I agree with the articles premise about attribution theory and the potential for some dangerous policy both domestic and abroad from Chinese and US positions going forward. In times of crisis people tend to organize arond others and group think sets in. These are dangerous times with policy and power vacuums building in many parts of the world.
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    • Tue Oct 28th 09:18 AM | Rating: 0 -1
      Commented on:
      Another Buffett Prediction, Japan Edition
      Iscar is Israeli not Japanese.
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    • Tue Oct 28th 09:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Best of Minds, The Worst of Minds: Buffett and Greenspan
      If you live on a Flood Plain for the average of 78 years, there is a 78% chance of the 1:100 year flood occurring during your lifetime, so where is the surprise? The recency bias and "luck" attribution bias are dangerous cognitive failures. I recommend a reading of Charlie Munger's Poor Charlie's Almanack as a great way to learn about risk.
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    • Fri Oct 17th 12:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Examining the Credit Agencies: The More They Compete, the Higher Their Ratings
      good article. the credit agencies are part of the systemic reason behind the current "normal accident" eliminating the credit agency monopoly status via the NRSRO regulatory regime would counterintuitively lead to a more robust system.

      when flying a plane, the only thing more dangerous than having no instruments is overly relying on a fualty one.
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    • Wed Oct 15th 09:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Bad Are Housing Price Declines Worldwide?
      I appreciate the global breadth of the information. Thanks for the post.
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    • Fri Oct 10th 11:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Settlement Auction for Lehman CDS: Surprises Ahead?
      very helpful article. the settlement risk associated with scarce physicals is disconcerting.
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    • Thu Oct 9th 10:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Home Ownership: The Ideal That Refuses to Die
      Home ownership saw govt. intervention on the way up and will see it on the way down....please mr. govt. stop helping the invisible hand.
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    • Mon Oct 6th 10:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Relax Basel II's Bank Capital Adequacy Requirements
      Basel 2 is extremely dangerous as a model based risk approach it will create gaming of the model. 5-7 years from now after full implementation it will be considered a structural element leading to systemic failures.
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    • Thu Oct 2nd 15:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      2 Conclusions on Asset Allocation with Housing
      The case schiller index has incredibly high serial autocorrelation.
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    • Wed Oct 1st 09:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Topsoil Crisis: Dirt Isn't Cheap Anymore
      If true, the Ukraine is a very strategic asset, the truth is large amounts of arable land is unused. 23m hectares in various Ex-soviet Countries. www.finfacts.com/irish...
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    • Wed Oct 1st 09:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Flash Seems to Be Coming to Apple's iPhone - But Is That a Good Thing?
      flash has support for VOIP. nice way to tunnel through the international dialling rates. Carriers won't like it, but it is inevitable.
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    • Fri Sep 26th 10:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Google's Vision for a Wireless World
      Watch this space: 802.22 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
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    • Thu Sep 25th 09:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dell To Put LEDs in All Its Laptops
      Aixtron's position is interesting with its roughly 80% share in MOCVD technology which is the equivalent of the LED easy bake oven. the other portion is mostly supported by VEECO which has a few other bits on the side AFMs etc.
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    • Thu Sep 25th 09:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Google Phone Be Good for Carriers?
      The carriers offer a walled garden called Voice. this will disappear in 5-10 years and with it the premium they charge. A combination of VOIP, SIP trunking and inteligent Unified communication will end run the garden. The Carriers will then offer a commodity IP dialtone at reasonable rates, there will of course be the expected impact on margins and equity values of those carriers. IP uber alles: Music companies, TV & Cable, phone companies...
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    • Thu Sep 25th 08:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bear Market? Numbers Don't Add Up
      Equities yield roughly 4.5% on a PE basis. Historical average from 1930 for the US is 6.8%. Historical equity risk premium over 10yr US TSY is 3-4%. The market is either expecting 30%+ earnings growth or it may be in for the surprise you mention. I bet on the surprise being more likely which would be a 20-30% decline. Dow 8,500.
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