nickgogerty

http://www.gogerty.com
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209 Comments

    • Fri May 16th 08:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't believe Paulson: S&L 2.0, the Bank Failure Redux
      Reggie you have done some good research putting this altogether. I agree, that things are still quite dangerous. Spreads have come down, but the Fed and BOE are still active and advocating for banks to strengthen their balance sheets. One can't fault Pualson for "talking his book". It is part of the job.

      My own concern is CDS netting in the event of a few failures or a midsize counterparty failure. The relative illiquidity and slowish netting facilities means that a few days delay on a "EOD" agreement could send some pretty large shocks through various netting nodes on the CDS network of relationships.

      Herstatt type risk cascades rapidly through a tightly coupled system. One could argue that the relative lack of liquidity and thin balance sheets increases the "coupling" in the system.
      View article »
    • Thu May 15th 09:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wind: The Powerful Anti-Commodity
      The PTC (production tax credit) is an important point to consider in regards to US wind. there are another pure play called broadwind energy, formerly towertech, that people may be interested in researching.
      View article »
    • Thu May 15th 09:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      WisdomTree and Dreyfus Team Up to Launch Currency ETFs
      I want one for norway.
      View article »
    • Thu May 15th 09:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Beginning of the End of the Credit Crisis?
      eye of the hurricane. To use the over used metaphor, prepare for more headwinds. The fed isn't pumping in liquidity so actively becuase it feels happy about the situation.
      View article »
    • Tue May 13th 10:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Cisco TelePresence Nears its Tipping Point
      Once you use a HALO system you are hooked, video conferencing using ISDN etc. is another product all together. Telepresence is just a matter of time.
      View article »
    • Tue May 13th 10:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Coming Soon: Global Corn-for-Sale Signs
      Plantings in the US were a little late in spring due to rain. It will be interesting to see the USDA actual plantings report, compared to estimated acreage allocations from the early spring.

      For everyone's sake lets hope for a great growing season and huge harvest.
      View article »
    • Tue May 13th 10:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GeoEye Looking Up: Confirms Launch Date and Releases Q1 Earnings
      nice write up. they do have a good management team. hope the bird finally gets up in august.
      View article »
    • Thu May 8th 10:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China: How Long Will the Inflation Respite Last?
      The "iron rice bowl" social contract with the 750m peasants in the countryside may be broken. This could have major ramifications in the next 8-12 months.
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 09:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Updated Year-End S&P 500 Price Targets from Wall Street Strategists
      Ken Fisher's approach to plot a distribution of projections and then bet on the gaps is interesting. His Great humiliator thesis, "i.e. the market humilates the must number of people". more data would be great to see on this approach.
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 09:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Study Secondary Market Sheds Light on Hedge Fund Buyers
      Hey Christopher, most investors underperform their investments. IE they buy high and sell low, thus underperforming the funds they are in. Any research on hedge funds lately, private vs. institutional etc. I did a study in 1997 that showed this.
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 09:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Shocking Reality of High Gas Prices
      Gas is $10/gallon in the UK and has been for awhile.
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 09:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Easy-Money Days of Dollar Shorting May Be Over
      Discussions of Debt:GDP and Debt+underfunded legal obligations to GDP would make this a more interesting debate.
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 09:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Housing Crisis is NOT Over
      median household income to house prices is here. 3x is closer 4x is why we are in trouble nickgogerty.typepad.co...
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 09:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Global Dividend Yield Trends
      dividends are subject to corporate policy. it would be interesting to see free cash flow or even earnings over time in this study.
      View article »
    • Tue May 6th 09:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What If Microsoft Is Pursuing the Wrong Business?
      Ballmer has never struck me personally as the correct leader for a software company, much less one trying to woo a consumer who isn't locked into choice based on prior behaviour and tacit knowledge. The markets MSFT seeks to enter are based on consumer choice and are greenfield. The brownfield business franchises will be milked for years to come, but the growth story isn't there and the inspiration for it won't come from Ballmer. MSFT should hope Ray Ozzie is cooking up something somewhere in the labs. The Xbox was the last interesting greenfield innovation to show up. The margins on that business are probably very different from the rest of MSFT.
      View article »
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