David Segelov

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    • Tue Apr 8th 12:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Red Flags at Basin Water
      This is really awful research.

      These 2 customers are finance companies that aggregate the customer's purchases.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 22nd 10:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      VeriSign's News Corp. Deal Signifies Renewed Focus - But Big Challenges Remain
      Nov 22 announcement of a $250M charge to earnings is amazing.

      On a pro-forma basis it means about 40% of the Net Income never existed.

      On a non-pro forma basis (excluding all the acquisitions which were factored in ex-post facto) the number is close to 60% of Net Income never existed.

      Staggering.

      Wall Street keeps treating these announcements as one off write-offs. Amazing
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 16th 10:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      SunPower's Powerlight Acquisition: Both Companies Win
      Amazing how little analysis has been done on the effect on SPWR's business model.

      The cheer-leading is deafening but the reality remains that SPWR has bought into an area way out of their manufacturing, low cost expertise and into a lower margin distribution and installation longer cycle business. How do you integrate the two models?

      Doesnt SPWR set up more channel conflict - its PowerLight division is now competing against its customers.

      Premium valuation for what?
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 14th 21:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Uranium: Supply < Demand
      I like a few of the Australia Uranium companies such as:

      Deep Yellow (DYL.AX)
      U308 Corp (UTO.AX)
      Giralia (GIR.AX)
      Uranium Equities (UEQ.AX)


      Also Equinox (EQN in Canada and Australia) mine comes on line in q1 2008 with copper and uranium and looks undervalued.

      I tend to favor the companies with near term or actual production. Alot of the smaller companies in Australia are very early stage exploration companies (although alot of data exists from mining in the early 1970's before the prices collapsed).

      Additionally, there are export restrictions which need to be lifted at the State level for some of these smaller companies to be successful.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 14th 14:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      VeriSign's News Corp. Deal Signifies Renewed Focus - But Big Challenges Remain
      Nice payoff if you can get it. What cant Mr Irvin say that might be of interest?

      This was filed in an 8-k on Nov 8 2006


      On October 31, 2006, VeriSign, Inc. (“VeriSign”) entered into a Severance and General Release Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Vernon Irvin, Executive Vice President of VeriSign Communications Services.

      In consideration of Mr. Irvin’s service with the Company and in exchange for Mr. Irvin’s release of claims and covenant not to sue, the Company will pay Mr. Irvin a severance payment in the total amount of $683,520.00, 67% of which will be paid within one month of the date Mr. Irvin executes the Agreement and the other 33% of which will be paid on the one year anniversary of the termination of his employment, subject to Mr. Irvin’s compliance with non-solicitation and non-competition provisions. The Company will also pay Mr. Irvin up to approximately $215,000, representing 84% of his 2006 target bonus based on the performance of both the Company and VeriSign Communications Services. The payment of the 2006 bonus will be made at the time that VeriSign issues annual bonuses to its employees, which typically occurs in March. The Company will also make payments to Mr. Irvin for his COBRA and life insurance premiums, and will also provide certain administrative and other support as set forth in the Agreement.

      Upon termination of Mr. Irvin’s employment with VeriSign and subject to compliance with applicable law and any stock option exercise limitation imposed by the Board of Directors, VeriSign will accelerate vesting of twenty-five percent (25%) of Mr. Irvin’s then unvested stock options to purchase shares of VeriSign common stock for which the fair market value is greater than the exercise price of his employment on the termination date. Also upon termination of Mr. Irvin’s employment, and subject to compliance with applicable law, VeriSign will accelerate vesting of twenty-five percent (25%) of his then unvested restricted stock units of VeriSign common stock.

      The foregoing is a summary of the terms and conditions of the Agreement and does not purport to be complete. The foregoing is qualified in its entirety by reference to the Agreement, a copy of which is filed as Exhibit 99.01 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.

      Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits.
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 12th 18:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Psivida Shares Drop 20% -- Should Recover Soon (PSDV)
      Another bad deal for PSDV shareholders as the company uses its leading product as a SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) to raise more funds.

      After the Sandell deal and the SPV it is unclear that the ordinary shareholders have any claim on anything of value.

      This is a sell.
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 12th 12:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Uranium's Hot, But This One's Not: The Short Case On USEC (USU)
      I am really bullish on uranium. The sole US stock USU is not the play b/c of the huge investment they need to make and the competition they face. No doubt their inventory is valuable and getting more valuable but it will all be used to fund the new equipment.

      The better pure plays are all in Canada and Australia.

      I own alot of them. There are very ew with near term revenue potential and these will likely become very valuable stocks.

      I like Paladin(PDN), Giralia (GIR.AX), U308 Corp (UTO.AX), Equniox (EQN.AX) (listed both Australia and Canada), and DYL.AX. Also BHP and RIO have large exposures admist there huge resources holdings.

      Equinox is a new favorite of mine - copper mixed with uranium but the economics are appealing.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 7th 13:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solar Stocks Don't Necessary Rebound With Oil: The Short Case on SunPower
      Aleo Solar (A German public company) released 3Q figures three weeks early on November 7, and reduced full-year guidance significantly as a result of slower sales, higher input costs and lower selling prices.

      Goldman Sachs cut estimates on the revenue line by 20%+.

      German demand is soft, input prices from the poly mean that margins are being significant affected.


      David Segelov CFA
      646 924 8205 *
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 7th 13:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Long Case for Solar Powered SunPower
      Aleo Solar (A German public company) released 3Q figures three weeks early on November 7, and reduced
      full-year guidance significantly as a result of slower sales, higher input costs and lower selling prices
      AS1Gn.DE is the ticker.

      German demand is soft, input prices from the poly mean that margins are being significant affected.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 25th 09:44 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Long Case for Solar Powered SunPower
      Good summary of the conference call that only stated the positive.

      Your article doesnt talk about the small problem going on in the German market, which is not only the largest market by a multiple but also had been the fastest growing market.

      Problems in the German solar market were confirmed in an October 20 pre-announcement by Reinecke + Pohl Sun Energy - a well known integrator. They cited "lower than expected dometic demand for crystalline modules."

      Oh yes, SPWR acknowledged the slowdown but they would be untouched due to their superior technology (if they were so superior why did Sharp win the Google account?) and superior customers.

      Fact remains that the large solar farm projects were built by financial outfits in 2004 and 2005. Now in 2006 there is no positive IRR for these projects.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 12th 11:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The H-P Affair: What Stockholders Need to Know
      HPW's announcment to make the CEO Hurd also the Chairman reverses the trend of the past five years where every investor wanted the roles split.

      Did the investment community learn anything from Enron and other corporate debacles?
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 25th 10:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Psivida Shares Drop 20% -- Should Recover Soon (PSDV)
      My view is that they did a "toxic convert" - see WSJ 25th August 2006 for examples of how damaging that can be for a company.

      I like the PSDV technology but the Sandell Asset Mangement and its related Cayman entities effectively owns the company and not the shareholders. Shareholders of common equity in this sort of risky venture stand a great chance of being wiped out totally.

      Management basically trashed the loyal shareholders. Worse than that the shareholders in the US cannot see the convert deal that PSDV entered into. I asked management a number of times to get a look at the deal so I could make an assessment. They were not forthcoming. Under the rules of a 20-F Filing shareholders dont seem to be entitled to view such a document. The Australian Exchange rules are even weaker.

      This convert deal was terrfific for the hedge funds and lousy for the ordinary shareholder. Another example of how the little guy loses his money.
      View article »
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