David Trainer's $240 Apple Price Target Analysis Just Doesn't Add Up [View article]
Yes, this looks like the equivalent of fat thumb error. Someone's got PBKAD (problem between keyboard and display), or as my late father said, the best of cars is worthless if there's a loose nut behind the wheel.
The man forfeits all credibility with such a silly number. He's a pro? Sure. And I'm the queen.
An Inconvenient Truth - Rotten Apples Bringing Down The Whole Smartphone Tree [View article]
Can you please stop with the juvenile "Rotten Apple" crap? It's just so ridiculous. It really does not recommend your article, which I intentionally did not read. If you can't even do a decent title, I'm not paying attention to your content. Marketing 101, buster. Pay attention.
A Sane Response To Some Of Apple's Insane Criticisms [View article]
I have toyed with the idea of taking on a dozen of these outrageous themes that i have heard/read in the last year. It isn't insanity IMO as much as perhaps bad judgment. Thanks for a good article.
I suspect there is a hidden and important stratification in shareholders. Not sure what the composition looks like, but the motivations of perma-longs who have sat on unrealized gains for a long time is a lot different than speculative recently-joined folks who got in at 650-700. One of us is quiet and stable. The other is losing its collective mind. Meanwhile, analysts waver back and forth between extremes of optimism and panic sometimes only weeks apart. Many issue predictions that later prove way off and don't own up or follow up later. Some state hope and opinion as fact.... in the 'the reason that x is so is that y is so" way, and the unwary will assume that x is so without critical examination. "The reason Apple is doomed is because Samsung made a profit" presumes Apple is doomed. Nevermind that Samsung remote controlled bidets and diswashers were involved in Sammy's profits. Apple doesn't make a bidet, as you know.
I appreciate and have pre-echoed the innovation reason more times than i can count. Apple engineers aren't napping. As the old horror movies used to say "It's quiet..... too quiet". Perma-long I am and perma-long I'll stay until my investment objectives have been met. Till then, the panic in the herd doesn't scare me. Let them eat bitcoins. Or Googles. Or Amazons.
The Bigger Picture Apple Investors Are Missing [View article]
Apple designs products, services, facilities that have changed the world we live in. It also killed some giants (RIM, Nokia, Sony, Dell, HP.)
I think it's naive to think that Apple is doing NOTHING in Asia. May not be fast enough for you or your preferred approach, but they've got a measurable track record that is impressive enough to make them top dog in the corporate world.
Whatever they are doing 'wrong', I want them to keep doing it. It's wrong enough to net $145,000,000,000 in cash in a pile. I won't bore you with the other things they are doing 'wrong', but it appears that the marketplace is punishing them well by buying whatever they want to sell.
Now That Apple Has Bottomed, What Is It Worth? [View article]
Nice illustration. Good idea to leave AMZN out, too. That is one inexplicable outlier and sooner or later, a lot of market value will evaporate, fast enough to make Apple look stable.
I keep looking for a real underlying reason that this stock behaves as it has recently, and have come to no conclusion. From long observation, though, it seems a pile of desperate and perhaps inexperienced money (of the sort in IRAs, etc.) gets piled onto the flavor of the day..... Apple, gold, bitcoins, whatever, and distorts the underlying sane valuations that might make a more predictable market. Now that the economy is picking up steam, there is also no longer the "Only Apple is doing well" theme to drive the frothy investors over to the stock, and they are all off putting their money is other 'peaky' popular stocks of the moment. Funds aren't going to pay more than they have to, and if a good percentage of folks in at 700 are willing to sell at 400, that's where they'll buy.
I'm in so low that I have no impetus to get out, and there are probably a fair number of people like me who stay put and maybe trade an option or two. The last fools to trade set the market cap and stock value, though. Less than 20 million shares a day out of nearly 1000 million shares (ballpark) are the ones making all this financial noise.
I think it would be really interesting to see how basis informs the analysis. With a large enough sample size, a better classification scheme might emerge than the individual/institutional dichotomy.
Just musing.. thanks for the article and effort. Good food for thought.
Apple And Samsung Just Don't Have A Chance Against BlackBerry [View article]
it was a tongue in cheek comment, friend.
i actually have been paying attention and it has been a loooooong time since i heard about any profits from RIM. or any positive market share news of any consequence. or any decrease in the worry level regarding subscriber leakage. RIM/BB has one good chance left. is one client/category of less than a million subscribers enough to topple the big boys?
How Apple Let Its Shareholders Down [View article]
i haven't examined 10k lately nor balance sheet closely. is there any reserve allocated for foreign balance repatriation? seems like the sort of oversight apple would not make. for instance, i never have seen "hope for tax holiday" as a balance sheet account and they do subscribe to all that GAAP stuff. I'm off to see, but suggest you look closer, too. just saying.....
The Risky Truth About Apple's Dividend [View article]
I agree, globalbusy... they granted a risk discount. 50 billion bid for 17 billion offered. There's what people really think and that particular pile of people? They do the math. QED. The Fed should be so strong.
Is Apple Worth More Dead Than Alive? [View article]
Thanks. Decent article and approach. We can quibble all day about minutia, and it's all guesses. First order approximation, basically and you are off and you know it. Still, useful and it illustrates what some of us suspect, that the market has irrationally valued Apple apparently while it awaits some mystery impetus to do otherwise.
As far as your technique is concerned, I agree with it. Specific numbers anyone can contest, but yours have a rational basis and can be supported or contested. The number is still going to come up close to where we are now in share price, which assumes we have no further activity from Apple. I'd find that hard to believe. The boys do have an effective Skunk Works out there in Cupertino and it has a track record. A pretty good one.
The one place in your analysis that makes me want to climb a ladder and scream it is the stickiness of Apple. I'm a waaaaaay below average user of my iPad, and I have a few HUNDRED BUX of apps to ditch if I switch. Another $500+ bux in tunes. Training and familiarization burden of some value. Spare chargers, cables, plastic. Integration with my desktop in 50 ways.
THIS is the advantage of early market share. Glue. I'm not even thinking about switching to Android because there is no incremental reason of sufficient magnitude. Apps? Please. Tunes? You're kidding. Better features? Some better, some worse, net zero. Nothing is pulling me away or pushing me away. And it's not because I'm not techno savvy. I've been an adult for a long time and an engineer almost all of it. I'm not working at a car wash and watching every nickle. I'm long AAPL and it's not because of this that I am a cheerleader, but rather I see how remarkable this outfit is, how remarkable their spectrum is and I MUST be long. No one else compares.
We'll see. Thanks for your effort. I am hard to please and your assessment did just that. Good work.
David Trainer's $240 Apple Price Target Analysis Just Doesn't Add Up [View article]
The man forfeits all credibility with such a silly number. He's a pro? Sure. And I'm the queen.
Apple: The Dangers Of Using Bad Data To Calculate Only One Metric [View article]
What's so precious about this silly estimate is that in the blogosphere, credibility is all you have. He can kiss that goodbye for a while.
Danger Zone For This Week: Apple [View article]
An Inconvenient Truth - Rotten Apples Bringing Down The Whole Smartphone Tree [View article]
A Sane Response To Some Of Apple's Insane Criticisms [View article]
I suspect there is a hidden and important stratification in shareholders. Not sure what the composition looks like, but the motivations of perma-longs who have sat on unrealized gains for a long time is a lot different than speculative recently-joined folks who got in at 650-700. One of us is quiet and stable. The other is losing its collective mind. Meanwhile, analysts waver back and forth between extremes of optimism and panic sometimes only weeks apart. Many issue predictions that later prove way off and don't own up or follow up later. Some state hope and opinion as fact.... in the 'the reason that x is so is that y is so" way, and the unwary will assume that x is so without critical examination. "The reason Apple is doomed is because Samsung made a profit" presumes Apple is doomed. Nevermind that Samsung remote controlled bidets and diswashers were involved in Sammy's profits. Apple doesn't make a bidet, as you know.
I appreciate and have pre-echoed the innovation reason more times than i can count. Apple engineers aren't napping. As the old horror movies used to say "It's quiet..... too quiet". Perma-long I am and perma-long I'll stay until my investment objectives have been met. Till then, the panic in the herd doesn't scare me. Let them eat bitcoins. Or Googles. Or Amazons.
Thanks for a good read.
The Bigger Picture Apple Investors Are Missing [View article]
I think it's naive to think that Apple is doing NOTHING in Asia. May not be fast enough for you or your preferred approach, but they've got a measurable track record that is impressive enough to make them top dog in the corporate world.
Whatever they are doing 'wrong', I want them to keep doing it. It's wrong enough to net $145,000,000,000 in cash in a pile. I won't bore you with the other things they are doing 'wrong', but it appears that the marketplace is punishing them well by buying whatever they want to sell.
Now That Apple Has Bottomed, What Is It Worth? [View article]
I keep looking for a real underlying reason that this stock behaves as it has recently, and have come to no conclusion. From long observation, though, it seems a pile of desperate and perhaps inexperienced money (of the sort in IRAs, etc.) gets piled onto the flavor of the day..... Apple, gold, bitcoins, whatever, and distorts the underlying sane valuations that might make a more predictable market. Now that the economy is picking up steam, there is also no longer the "Only Apple is doing well" theme to drive the frothy investors over to the stock, and they are all off putting their money is other 'peaky' popular stocks of the moment. Funds aren't going to pay more than they have to, and if a good percentage of folks in at 700 are willing to sell at 400, that's where they'll buy.
I'm in so low that I have no impetus to get out, and there are probably a fair number of people like me who stay put and maybe trade an option or two. The last fools to trade set the market cap and stock value, though. Less than 20 million shares a day out of nearly 1000 million shares (ballpark) are the ones making all this financial noise.
I think it would be really interesting to see how basis informs the analysis. With a large enough sample size, a better classification scheme might emerge than the individual/institutional dichotomy.
Just musing.. thanks for the article and effort. Good food for thought.
How Apple Let Its Shareholders Down [View article]
Apple And Samsung Just Don't Have A Chance Against BlackBerry [View article]
Blackberry's in a jam. Toast.
Apple: A $467 Price Floor Set By Share Repurchase Plan And Dividend Hike [View article]
Apple And Samsung Just Don't Have A Chance Against BlackBerry [View article]
i actually have been paying attention and it has been a loooooong time since i heard about any profits from RIM. or any positive market share news of any consequence. or any decrease in the worry level regarding subscriber leakage. RIM/BB has one good chance left. is one client/category of less than a million subscribers enough to topple the big boys?
How Apple Let Its Shareholders Down [View article]
Apple And Samsung Just Don't Have A Chance Against BlackBerry [View article]
Funny thing... if BB doesn't get its butt in gear, 470k BB units in the gov go dark? I guess that will mean the ultimate in security?
The Risky Truth About Apple's Dividend [View article]
Is Apple Worth More Dead Than Alive? [View article]
As far as your technique is concerned, I agree with it. Specific numbers anyone can contest, but yours have a rational basis and can be supported or contested. The number is still going to come up close to where we are now in share price, which assumes we have no further activity from Apple. I'd find that hard to believe. The boys do have an effective Skunk Works out there in Cupertino and it has a track record. A pretty good one.
The one place in your analysis that makes me want to climb a ladder and scream it is the stickiness of Apple. I'm a waaaaaay below average user of my iPad, and I have a few HUNDRED BUX of apps to ditch if I switch. Another $500+ bux in tunes. Training and familiarization burden of some value. Spare chargers, cables, plastic. Integration with my desktop in 50 ways.
THIS is the advantage of early market share. Glue. I'm not even thinking about switching to Android because there is no incremental reason of sufficient magnitude. Apps? Please. Tunes? You're kidding. Better features? Some better, some worse, net zero. Nothing is pulling me away or pushing me away. And it's not because I'm not techno savvy. I've been an adult for a long time and an engineer almost all of it. I'm not working at a car wash and watching every nickle. I'm long AAPL and it's not because of this that I am a cheerleader, but rather I see how remarkable this outfit is, how remarkable their spectrum is and I MUST be long. No one else compares.
We'll see. Thanks for your effort. I am hard to please and your assessment did just that. Good work.