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fauxscot

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  • Apple Q2 Review And Q3 Outlook [View article]
    Mr. Bear, I mean Blair...

    Here's some analysis for you, not necessarily related to this post of yours, but interesting, nonetheless:

    http://bit.ly/1nS6Mm8
    Apr 27, 2014. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Newfound Glory [View article]
    Apple remains a decent investment. Not a foamy speculation.

    The market likes speculation, but hasn't a lot of patience for investment.

    The same week Apple pulled of this performance, profit-free juggernaut Amazon got a 30% haircut and STILL sports a 540+ P/E. Google? Stepping back from Facebook competition and kind of devoid of anything new. Samsung retiring its advanced-copycat Gear to little fanfare.

    And here sits Apple, on a comfy mattress stuffed with billions in cash, and with still 1/2 the year to go with product introductions. For the moment, anyway, the bears are dealing with singed fur around their butts and are clearing out. (Eventually, they will be right, but I do love that smoldering smell for the moment as they retreat to the quiet part of the woods.)

    Good article. Thanks!
    Apr 27, 2014. 06:50 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q2 Results Are Likely To Disappoint [View article]
    Mr. B.... time for a rehash of how dismal things are for Apple.

    They beat earnings by $1.52? In Q2. The 'weak' quarter.

    Meanwhile, in market-land, Amazon still sports a 540+ P/E AFTER a 30% haircut.

    The market is irrational, until the wallet catches up to it. A steady stream of upgrades, higher price targets, positive outlooks and we're only at the 1/2 way of a year of innovations.

    You were dead on. Apple is toast.
    Apr 27, 2014. 06:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPads And Tablet Growth [View article]
    Good article and food for thought.

    I disagree that Apple hardware is grossly overpriced per commenter dmarilley, rather strenuously. Total cost of ownership is the issue AND the value of aggravation is an intangible, but huge factor. Subsidies make the out of pocket costs comparable, unless you are buying top of the line OR unlocked. It's irrelevant. You can get a 4S for $0 and 5C/5S for reasonable prices... certainly nearly insignificant compared to the cost of the carrier plan.... and that's just for phones.

    The aggravation factor.... with few minor exceptions and cases, Apple stuff just works. If I have a cheaper phone that doesn't, and/or have to be techie smart or first adopter fanatic, being in a problem resolution mode for any time at all is a killer. It's painful for techies, but just imagine how it is for Granny or your dumb brother in law. Consumer sophistication is growing, of course, but we all know from personal experience just how dumb most of the USA is, at least.

    That, and the fact that the apps issue tilts overwhelmingly in Apple's favor, account for some of the draw to this platform, I think. As far as the laptops go, there is a small premium, but you cannot compare a Win8 box to a Macbook Air spec for spec and at the same quality level. They have decent margins, of course, unlike the Acer or Asus or HP machines and the days of subsidizing negative margins on hardware with crapware are over. Anyone who buys a crapware saturated machine spends the first few days removing it. The other platform drawbacks are just too numerous to repeat.

    It's not what you pay for something... it's what it costs you. Cheap does not always translate into inexpensive in that light. Apple stuff works. It is high quality. It meets the vast majority of needs with little requirement for an extensive learning curve or user sophistication.

    (Caveat: I am typing this on a WIN7 Dell. I can afford a Mac, but don't buy one because I don't NEED one, but if I did, it would not cross my mind to replace this thing with a PC of ANY type. I have more than 40 years experience with computers, and my PCs are a constant maintenance challenge. Every Mac user I know is self-sufficient, by comparison. I ONLY get requests for assistance from PC users. Scores per year, just in my posse. Macs are different in this way....really, really different.)

    Apple will do OK in this arena as long as the competition is Windows and the market is the home, school, college, lone eagle and can now compete favorably in an OS agnostic internet.
    Apr 27, 2014. 06:29 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Running Out Of Cash To Raise Its Dividend [View article]
    I bet I know where they can get some.

    Not from your bank account, of course, but I head they have a little stash.

    Non-article. Cook isn't an idiot, in case you haven't noticed. They'll manage to deal with their little problem, don't you worry.
    Apr 21, 2014. 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Bears: The Fake iPhone Panic Must Stop [View article]
    Where else do you put a buck? Treasuries?

    Profit-free growth outfits like Amazon? (I even LIKE Amazon as a business, but where and when are those profits? Is the goal just to kill off Sears, WalMart and downtown America?)

    Google? What's its yield again?

    The entire PC sector? What's the one glowing little star there, now? Dell? HP? Lenovo? Which one is SELLING OUT of a $3,000 base price America-built desktop supercomputer? Might that be..... Apple? Do you think they have a margin on those... the one thing every other PC leaves off their bill of materials?

    The volumes of late have been anemic. Not much confirmation in the moves either way. Looks like most folks are staying put.

    Again, where else to put a buck? Lottery tickets?
    Apr 7, 2014. 06:34 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q2 Results Are Likely To Disappoint [View article]
    Other folks don't seem to agree with your negativity, Mr. Blair.


    http://bit.ly/OhhLIX
    Apr 4, 2014. 08:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q2 Results Are Likely To Disappoint [View article]
    Article number 5 in the continuing series of articles I am not reading because I could predictably identify the author from the headline.

    Same song. Different day. Self-serving run down of a stock by a short seller and consistent bear, I presume. (Didn't read.)

    The press has been generally positive for the last few weeks. I've been wondering how long it would take and it looks like you are slowing down on your cycle. Stretched about two weeks this time.

    Next edition in 7 days or so?

    Here.... let me write the headline:

    Apple (faces__ probably____) (headwinds____ losses____ catastrophy___) (underperforming____ misses____ fear____) (uncertainty____ target____) (disappoints_____ had better____) (panic____ run for the hills____) (rotten__ take a bite out of____ peeled___)

    Check a bunch of these. find some irrelevant data from General Motors and add a graph.

    Save yourself a lot of work.

    Most of us look at Apple with a suitable amount of skepticism. And a suitable and cautious amount of optimism. On any given day, we're balancing the two. Your conclusions (in my experience) are uniformly negative and as often as not, based on thin evidence. I quit reading them, as a result. Is that the effect you seek? Personal credibility erosion due to a poverty of variety? It's working.
    Apr 4, 2014. 04:46 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Very Strong Demand For Mac Pro 2014 [View article]
    I'm glad you have to wait and am glad i am not in the market.

    Apple owns mobile profits. The profit-free also rans own market share.

    Apple owns laptop and desktop profits. The rest are share hogs and money losers.

    Apple obviously knows what it's doing vis a vis its products. A $3000 (base) desktop selling out when Dell has to give away $500 boxes? And still can't? Go Apple!

    Cook and the boys can ship as many as they want to, given that they can buy another 5 or 10 factories. They will optimize, soon enough. Startup is always hard and new product demand is always unpredictable. Of course, if you're Nokia, Blackberry or HP, you usually OVERPLAN production. Apple is different.
    Apr 2, 2014. 08:36 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Investors May Need A Reality Check [View article]
    Tinfoil hats, anyone?
    Apr 2, 2014. 05:30 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dividend At $20 In 5 Years? Not Gonna Happen [View article]
    For an investor buying today, your pessimism might be correct.

    For one like me, the yield based on my antique basis is rather high. (I've been in since AAPL was in the 2- and low 3- digits.) I can look at the current share value as unrealized gains, of course, but the question is... should I dump something that has growing capital security, growth potential (however modest), real income, probable income growth and a still-developing story to gamble that a google will return 3% if and when it starts paying a dividend and has me investing at the TOP of its valuation? Or that Cisco, a decent company, will suddenly surge to the stratosphere of global ubiquity of Apple?

    Worth considering your argument, of course. I'm on the fence and not in need of immediate action. I'm more interested in the next 3 years than the next 30 with Apple, and when I ask myself what has happened in 3 years segments in each of the 4 of them since I acquired AAPL, it seems patience has proven wise, though I acknowledge that I could have made more actively trading, but only in retrospect.

    My main observation about this stock is that it does not follow rational valuation. It is heavily discounted compared to other similar companies. I won't bore you with the facts; you know where they are.

    If Apple makes it to $20/yr, great. If not, I'd settle for $17 or $18 and a 1k share price and not complain too much.
    Mar 31, 2014. 08:14 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ's Apple / Comcast Story Not Accurate, News Being Overblown On Wall Street [View article]
    Well, what can we say?

    Not a day goes by here that some yahoo doesn't prognosticate on something vacuous, piling speculation on top of wishful thinking. Hell, professionals trade in rumor and innuendo.

    Not to say that is sane, of course, but for speculators, wild swings are good. For investors, you'd think the opposite... that analysis would be good, but it's not. In the short term, wisdom be damned, the minnows move the stock 10% in a day, and drive the thoughtful to drink, nearly.

    Here's a thought, though.... someone HAS content and Apple probably WANTS it. May not be Netflix, Comcast or anyone we know. Good to know your observations aren't tainted by ownership and I will re-read your article several times. Thanks for the effort and unbiased opinions/observations.
    Mar 24, 2014. 06:55 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Future: iPhone Replacements? [View article]
    Folks might not want to upgrade based on features, but the phones do wear out, particularly the batteries. Apps creep toward better features, too, as do OS upgrades. So at some point, it becomes a buy versus buy choice, and someone who has owned an iPhone for a long time is by definition, probably a committed iPhone user. The gradient pushes folks in the direction of more-of-the-same. Speaking more in favor of that, of course, is preservation of accessory and app investment, which can be substantial. Apple profits handsomely off of accessories AND apps.

    Unless there is a compelling reason to switch, many iPhone users would be financially foolish to consider doing so. The incremental cost to upgrade is the issue, not the cost of a standalone new phone, too. The cost of abandonment of apps, AND the uncertainty of having to learn a new ecosystem is also in Apple's favor.

    Mr. Blair is probably correct in suggesting that the old phones will become in-house door stops, kid toys, iPod-replacements, family plan hand-me-downs.
    Mar 16, 2014. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rough Waters Ahead For Apple In China [View article]
    I'm with you there, netflixlong. Range bound.

    Might have something to do with consistent negative interpretation. Apple drives readership. In blogger-land, it's a sure fire way for modest skills to ride good ones into visibility. As the sole bear in a warming world, Mr. Blair is unique. He's polite, consistently negative, and I hope, soon bankrupt from shorts-gone-bad. Money in the short-term market is made from other people, and we can hope to make some by moving it from his account(s) to ours. In the long market, money is made from the performance of the company. Apple will do what it does regardless of what the armchair quarterback brigades dream. So far, Apple wins.

    Save your reading time for better uses than Mr. Blair. He has 1000 ways of saying the same thing, and seldom varies more than a few degrees from his chosen part, icebergs or not.
    Mar 13, 2014. 06:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Apple [View article]
    I think we understand this.

    What I don't think you appreciate is that there is a PURPOSE behind the number... an implication. If Graham was interested in what the current ratio signifies, he'd be an idiot not to recognize that Apple clears the hurdle. Marketable securities and treasuries (111 billion bux worth of the latter) are not the same as plant, property and equipment (PPE).

    I resist exceptionalism, too, but I see the need for common sense. Again, is Warren Buffet or Bill Gates poor based on what's in their wallet? Surely, you can't make this case and be serious.

    I'm not picking on you, and I do sincerely appreciate your consistency, but in the 40 years or so I have been studying companies, I haven't seen ANY that have broken the molds so convincingly. This one is a tank. Please, and I mean this in all sincerity, please show me another company that did, has done, or may do what Apple has and probably will? I'll settle for one. Past or present. Closest I can come is Ford in the early days. I'd say RCA, but they consistently lost money even though they changed the globe.

    Your examples? Where is a comparable?
    Mar 13, 2014. 06:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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