Itsabimmerthing

Itsabimmerthing
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  • Crude soars above $31 a barrel  [View news story]
    OK, I re-phrase. Production is dropping. Demand is going up as it always has. China growth might be slowing but luckily India, among others, is ramping up. Could be that world supply is in balance already.
    Jan 23, 2016. 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude soars above $31 a barrel  [View news story]
    Nice bounce, as said, I would have hated to be short at these irrational levels. To be continued in Asia/Europe trade?

    Now even news are coming in on production cuts here and there. We are very close to S/D balance.

    With all the capex cuts I see a real risk of uncontrolled spike. OPEC will/can rake in the lost revenue from past years?
    Jan 23, 2016. 02:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude soars above $31 a barrel  [View news story]
    Shale has and will stall. If you can't read between the lines, try f.ex Railway ER's where they say that transport of oil by rail has dropped, and most interestingly, amount of fracking sand freight is down more than 50%. Add this to the fact that overproduction is maybe 1% and OPEC is pumping with no spare capacity.
    Jan 22, 2016. 08:14 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude soars above $31 a barrel  [View news story]
    crude could soar 30% and still would not stimulate more production as the ones with low cost are pumping flat out.
    Jan 22, 2016. 07:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude soars above $31 a barrel  [View news story]
    World supply is dropping at these prices.

    Rig Count later today, propably strong down.

    What happens in Middle East during the weekend?

    I would hate to be short.
    Jan 22, 2016. 06:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Petroleum Inventories  [View news story]
    lower 48 production down 247kbbl?
    Jan 21, 2016. 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil headed for $25 handle  [View news story]
    Over production is 1-2%, yet price is down around -50% from a breakeven, maybe more.

    Something else is driving the market. These prices are just not logical in any way. Even storage levels are about the same as last april.
    Jan 20, 2016. 02:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IEA: Oil market will remain oversupplied until late 2016  [View news story]
    definitely long at these prices.
    Jan 19, 2016. 06:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IEA: Oil market will remain oversupplied until late 2016  [View news story]
    looks like the "glut" might be gone already.

    Iran not able to increase exports significantly due to lack of investments (and continued political risk)

    US production dropping fast in real life, just not on mathematical predictions. Cushing has not gone significantly up since April-2015.

    Shale and Oil Sands not adding well completions before Oil steady at 60+?

    Wonder how much oil is only on paper and which bank(s) will take the hit?
    Jan 19, 2016. 06:18 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Oil Production In The Eagle Ford To Plummet  [View article]
    And whos taking the hit? Must become hard to hedge in the future?
    Jan 12, 2016. 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Oil Production In The Eagle Ford To Plummet  [View article]
    And whos taking the hit? Must become hard to hedge in the future?
    Jan 12, 2016. 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down Is Up - The Curious Case Of Memorial Production Partners And Its Hedges  [View article]
    Wonder who is on the other side of these hedges? Somebody is going to take a hit.

    It is just these type of high cost producers that need to stop pumping, at loss, for the Oil/Gas price to return to a sustainable level. Propably around 75-85 USD
    Jan 10, 2016. 02:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bass sees U.S. oil output going from glut to deficit; "the world's not ready"  [View news story]
    f.ex Swift energy that went belly up. latest ER. basically no hedging costs and they produced with approx 50% loss.

    just took a quick look at the Q3, about 30 secs so don't rely on this...
    Jan 5, 2016. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • West Texas crude futures pass Brent for the first time since 2010  [View news story]
    Shale is not ramping, it's bleeding money... Until now the production has kept up but that is about to change as not enough new wells are drilled. Running out of sweetspots too. Think there will be no ramp up before WTI is at 60+ levels.

    Hope banks are cautious with the capital&hedges to tight oil companies. Somebody is losing big on this collapse of prices. Tigh oil banks are the new swing producer.

    Problem with WTI is that it needs to be shipped to whoever would buy it, and that is a lot easier with Brent. Also the quality of non-US oil is generally better for refining. In addition US does not, and probably never will, produce enough for exporting. Always a net importer.
    Dec 24, 2015. 05:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC's December Meeting Will Have To Address The Financial Woes  [View article]
    Also the rumor is that OPEC and Russia are pumping at 101%.

    Some shale/oil sands off the market should do the trick. Then we only have to hope that shale plays understand not to come back at full scale once the prices rise.
    Nov 7, 2015. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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