theregans

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  • Apple: The World Has Yet To See 'Peak Mac'  [View article]
    P/E peaks at every major refresh of iPhone. Usually around 17-18. Do the math on $9-10 EPS and it gets us to $153-$180 in the next 12 months.
    Feb 5, 2016. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Dividend Yield Tops 2.00%  [View article]
    $AAPL has a P/E around 11 and has traded above 18 in the past 5 years. I have noticed somewhat of a correlation to the major refresh of the iPhone with the higher P/E. So for argument sake, it is not too far fetched in my opinion to slap a $180.00 per share target on it based on $10.00 EPS and a 18 P/E.

    Here's a P/E chart to support my thesis.

    http://bit.ly/1VFk6LB

    I am long and have been for a long time. One day it will be properly valued. Right now, they have it priced as if growth is slowing to zero and it will soon go under. Nothing could be further from the truth.
    Jan 5, 2016. 11:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Horsehead...Is It Time To Back Up The Truck?  [View article]
    I am in around $7.00 per share. I added a week or 2 ago around $2.30 to double down on my position. Of course every time I buy it proceeds to go down even further. I know I am not the only one to experience this... If it goes down below $1.00 I will yet again make one final purchase and double down again. This will not be a small position at this point. I am going in eyes wide open! I fully understand there is a real possibility that we could go to zero. There is also a very real possibility we could go back to $20 or greater in 5-10 years. This is a calculated risk I am willing to take at this point. Good luck to all!
    Dec 18, 2015. 12:19 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Keeps Tanking But It's Still Not Time To Buy Yet  [View article]
    Where the bottom is nobody really knows. Could be $500, $400 or even $300. I believe in 10 years it will be worth between $2,000 and $3,000. Whether I pay $500 or $300 becomes less important. I will start a position soon and hope it continues to go down so I can add all the way down and build a major position in a stock I wish I had never sold when it doubled on me from $75 to $150 soon after I bought it way back when.
    Dec 7, 2015. 09:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The E.coli Panic At Chipotle May Be Creating A Great Buying Opportunity For The Long Term  [View article]
    I don't have an issue with the buyback. If they have reason to believe the stock is undervalued, it makes sense to buyback shares. Especially if they believe they will solve this temporary problem and get back to growing at 20%+. If they won't buy their own stock, why should anyone else? When these events happen one must be able to look long term into the future. Short term anything can happen. 10 years from now they should have double the stores if not more and this tragic event will be a distant memory.
    Dec 6, 2015. 10:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The E.coli Panic At Chipotle May Be Creating A Great Buying Opportunity For The Long Term  [View article]
    Under 2,000 stores. Opening 200 per year. Annualized growth on the stock close to 30% since IPO. This is a very temporary situation the when looked back on in 5-10 years will be seen as an obvious great buying opportunity. $MCD has almost 18,000 stores in the US alone. $CMG has not even really begun to expand internationally. The growth they have in front of them is incredible. I see this worth at least $2,000 per share easily in 10 years at a minimum. Most likely closer to $3,000

    I will be getting back in as soon as it looks like it has found a bottom. Might take several months to aquire my full position as I too do not like to catch a falling knife. But if I believe in $2,000 or $3,000 in 10 years, $300-500 is almost irrelevant.
    Dec 6, 2015. 10:08 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Is Finally Cheap  [View article]
    Just got a whole lot cheaper today....
    Dec 4, 2015. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Monthly Update For The Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio Including Buys And Sells  [View article]
    It would be interesting to track both the current actively managed portfolio as well as where it would stand since conception had no other actions been taken other than the innitial purchases at the outset.

    It would be curious to see if the active management component will offer superior returns vs. a buy, hold reinvest the dividends approach. I would suspect in the short term, the active management would do better. However, over the longer term I am less convinced.......

    Not sure if you have thought of implementing this simple comparison. It may be of value to some.

    Cheers and happy holidays to you and yours.
    Dec 2, 2015. 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 25% Allocation To Apple - Too Much Risk?  [View article]
    Ultimately in this game you must be able to think for yourself. If you rely on the advice of others you will own a very diversified portfolio of stocks that may or may not beat the market on any giveen year. For some that is fine, for others it is not.

    I prefer to have a very concentrated portfolio of great companies. Companies that I only buy when their shares go on sale for a particular event driven reason. Or sometimes if the company is particularly great like AAPL a few years ago when it was trading in the 300-400's for I'm my opinion no particularly good reason.

    Buying these great companies when everything you read and hear sounds like death warmed over is not always an easy thing to do. But in my experience has always been the right thing to do. It may take several years for it to become apparent. But these things take time to play out. I consider AAPL to be one of if not the greatest company on the planet. I have not heard one valid argument to explain why it should trade at such a significant discount to the greater. A market made up of some great companies and some not so great.

    I follow it very closely as do you and as we should. I have AAPL at 30% of my portfolio. I too plan to only sell if it ever gets to its intrinsic value and only then. The daily, weekly, monthly and even yearly gyrations are meaningless to me as long as it continues to grow earnings. In the end, that for me is the ultimate test.
    Nov 21, 2015. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Income Portfolio Seeks Relative Safety  [View article]
    Great point! I am a decade behind you but we are closer to pulling the plug on full time employment. There is a whole physcological hurdle to overcome in my opinion when you go from a lifetime of saving to a new paradigm of a lifetime of spending said savings. I have given this considerable thought and can understand why one would want to find ways to reduce risk at this stage. It sounds easy like just flipping a switch when the time comes. But I suspect it must be nerve wracking to make your first few withdrawals.... Even knowing your plan and the math that backs it up is sound.

    I can't imagine what it must have been for someone who retired a few days before the last crash.... Unfortunately we can't predict these events only plan for them as best we can.

    What is your plan as far as cash on hand without having to liquidate any positions? How many years worth of cash reserves are you planning? Or is the income from dividends sufficient to sustain you?
    Nov 10, 2015. 08:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Income Portfolio Seeks Relative Safety  [View article]
    Sleuth,

    Great points that I will ponder. I guess from my perspective my worst case scenario would be a black swan event that would cut my 20% position in half in a single event. I'm thinking something like a BP disaster. That would cut my stock portfolio by 10%. My overal portfolio would suffer closer to a 7% hit. I am more than comfortable with this scenario. BTW my largest position did not grow to be my largest position, it is by my design. Was it not uncle Warren that said, "put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket" ? That I believe would be taking it to an extreme, but I'm sure you get my point.

    Thanks for your reply, so great to be able to share our collective viewpoints on the "art" of investing!
    Nov 10, 2015. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Income Portfolio Seeks Relative Safety  [View article]
    Nice read. Are you ever concerned about over diversification? I personally find keeping close tabs on 10 positions a big enough chore. I can't imagine knowing as much as I know about my 10 positions on 25 of them. I also don't have them as evenly distributed as you do. My largest holding occupies almost 20% of my stock portfolio.
    Nov 10, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Horsehead Holding Corp: Trotting Towards 40% Upside  [View article]
    CFO added 10,000 shares last week. I know in relative terms this is not a large purchase but I can't see it as anything other than a positive sign. I still think we could see more downside before we turn around and head higher. I could be wrong but I hope we see $5.00 first. I want to add all the way down till I get it to 15% of my portfolio I am now close to 10%.

    http://bit.ly/1Lj0RQX
    Sep 8, 2015. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Horsehead Holding Corp: Trotting Towards 40% Upside  [View article]
    Thanks for sharing. I don't agree with his position but the good thing is the market will decide. I have a 3-5 year time frame for this to play out. This could be trading back above $10.00 in a heartbeat on any bit of good news. Openheimer reiterated their outperform rating and $17.00 price target yesterday. Only time will tell who is right on this. I like my chances down around these levels.
    Sep 3, 2015. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Horsehead says Mooresboro zinc production "limited" in August  [View news story]
    This is starting to look like a binary trade it either goes to zero (highly unlikely) or it is a 4X investment or greater. I have been selling the June 2016 $5.00 puts. For between $0.50 and $0.60 which would get me in around $4.55 per share by next June. I sort of hope we get there. I would be content owning at these levels. My current cost basis is just under $8.00. I'm sure I would feel different If my cost basis were $12.00

    You either believe they will work this out longer term and prices and demand tick up or you believe they deliberately went out of their way to destroy this company by building a new plant. I'm sorry but I can't subscribe to the later. It is trading in the low 400 million range after hours yesterday. In my opinion that is just insane. I am long, I am continuing to build my position almost daily. I am going to make it 15% of my portfolio. To me the risk is rather low. The uncertainty is rather high. Something Mr. Market does not like at all. In the end my portfolio either goes down 15% or up 30%-40%. I am comfortable with that risk and anticipate the reward.
    Sep 2, 2015. 07:42 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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