mr freddo's  Instablog

Americans, Californians, our problems are solvable over the long run if not in the short run. 

In life, one is rewarded for creating, whether a broadway play or a big mac. Our world economy is based on the interactions of those created values. Those that create extraordinary value are rewarded extraordinarily. 

In America and California, in an effort to maximize our comparative advantage, we funneled our very best and brightest minds of our generation into finance. The engineers were shunned, and engineering jobs were exported. Thus we forgot what we knew while teaching the rest of the world how to catch us quickly. 

We weren't too concerned. We kept churning out new financial products and believed that the financiers are the real masters of the universe. 

What we now realize is that a great deal of the growth in finance was based on false premises. 1. That you can take a basket of turds, squeeze hard, and create diamonds. 2. That you can alter the basis rules of personal finance and own a million dollar home with an income of $50 thousand a year. 3. That you can allow bankers to become salesmen and still not lose capital. 

To return our state and nation to greatness, we must immediately begin to build our future businesses that will create real prosperity for the 21st century. These companies will be technologically driven, will rely on domestic employment, and will start from nothing to become dominant world beaters in 20 years. They will serve as platforms of innovation spinning off new companies and creating new markets. 

These new companies will create a new class of wealthy capitalists, men and women trained to make money by taking risks, applying technology, and building strong stateside businesses that act as engines of employment for our citizens. 

So let's stop whining about who is to blame. Why we failed. Why we are doomed. WA WA WA! 

Note to SA friends:  While off the subject of finance, I believe the article I am submitting is of great interest. Physicists especially are welcome to comment.  Meanwhile, I will clear a place on the mantle for the Noble Prize in Physics which is surely just a formality at this point...

Mr Freddo

May 20, 2009

I just returned from a fishing trip with some very top dogs in the financial industry.  

Over the next year, they see continued shake-out in the banking industry with several big failures on the horizon.

They anticipate an additional trillion dollars in write-offs and a new bottom for the stock market.

Wells Fargo's surprise announcement today of record profits is a welcome sign that the Obama administration's strategy for repairing our financial institutions has a strong chance for success if we can avert systemic meltdown over the next 12 months.

The Fed is providing cheap money to banks to fatten there operating profits. Mark to market rules are being eased which will allow banks to push losses into the future where they may, in fact be less. As mentioned in the article, there are still a mountain of losses to be absorbed and many banks will fail.