User 142738

79 Comments

    • Will GM's Volt Change History? [view article]
      169775: According to your numbers, Toyota started its PHEV research in 1987 and found a way to put $10,000 worth of lithium-ion batteries in a car for only $4,000. Aug 20 07:17 PM
    • Shifting Emphasis from Inflation to Growth [view article]
      JDL51: The Chinese and Russians have quite a bit of experience defaulting on foreign debt, and Japan is doing a better job than the U.S. in going further into it (debt). Your postulate is negated by something called “recent history.” Aug 17 11:11 PM
    • The Euro's Long Run Is Finally Over [view article]
      eh: The EU member countries can only wish that they could lower their collective government deficits to below $1,000,000,000,000. Aug 15 09:30 AM
    • The Euro's Long Run Is Finally Over [view article]
      eh: The EU member countries can only wish that they could lower their collective government deficits to below $1,000,000,000,000. Aug 15 09:30 AM
    • The Great Firewall of China Faces Challenge During Olympics [view article]
      To make a very quick correction: China does not have a 3G network (yet), and Japan was dragged into the 3G game. The two nations with mobile networks separate from GSM (the very old, very slow 3G predecessor) are Japan and the United States. Supposedly China is going to make their own standard, despite every other country giving up on their own standards.

      On a more related note, the way the Internet infrastructure is being set up in China is very “convoluted” (I don’t know any better words to describe it). There are two rival ISPs who tamper with their competitor’s Internet traffic to convince people to switch over to them. With the exception of Hong Kong, the bandwidth capacity in and out of China is on par with a small city.

      I cannot recommend anything to consider investing in at this moment, but if anybody decides to expand China’s bandwidth it would have to be a company in Australia, Japan, or the United States, since those countries run the pipes coming in and out of China.       Aug 10 12:39 PM
    • The US Dollar Elevator is Going Up! [view article]
      I can see the author’s prediction coming true with a hypothetical yet likely sequence of events: (1) people get out of stocks and decide to hold cash, (2) cash goes into bonds, and (3) people don’t sell those bonds.

      I also find the comments about the euro and Zimbabwe hilarious at the very least. The U.S.’s debt is about $0.62 per dollar of GDP; the powerhouses in Europe have debt that averages out to about €0.75 per euro of GDP and Japan’s debt is about ¥196 per hundred yen of GDP.

      And the United States, thank goodness, isn’t confiscating soybean farms and coal mines for political purposes. If such an event were to happen, then comparing the U.S. to Zimbabwe would be appropriate.       Aug 03 09:32 PM
    • How Is GM Still Alive? [view article]
      Having a quarter-century head start for building ethanol-capable automobiles in Brazil may have had something to do with it. Aug 01 11:00 AM
    • Another American Money Pit: Infrastructure [view article]
      "The average US public school building is 40 years old. More than three quarters of these have deferred maintenance."

      Public schools are funded by their respective state governments, not the Federal government.       Jul 29 11:07 AM
    • The Case for Buying China Now [view article]
      The fundamentals for FXI, or any Chinese stock and/or ETF, do all the explaining. Oil is a big contributor to losses here. A large chunk of the market capitalization is in large oil companies, but unlike all the other oil producers and refiners who make money in the “crack spread,” China’s oil companies’ profits are controlled by the whim of their government.

      There are several articles quoting Chinese oil company spokespeople about how government price controls are cutting into their profit margins. Profit margins, according to the quotes, range between -40% and -50%. Common sense (and a healthy dose of economic theory) dictates that if a company is losing 50% due to government price controls, it must be due to the government holding prices down 50%.

      So, according to that, gasoline must retail for about ¥3.6 a liter ($1.99 a gallon), right? Wrong. It retails for about ¥6.6 ($3.66 a gallon). Even with a half-off coupon they pay almost as much as Americans do.

      I see any of three events happening by June 2009:

      1.) In an effort to keep the oil companies afloat, China will keep raising and raising fuel prices. Costs for industrial production will spike, resulting in a massive migration of factories to a cheaper market (probably Mexico). Economic growth grinds to a halt. Unemployment and inflation shoot up. People get angry.

      2.) In an effort to keep the people happy, China will keep subsidizing fuel prices. Import tariffs go up. Growth remains high, though it will solely be due to money supply expansion. Investors move their money en masse to other countries looking for the “next big thing.” Hong Kong stocks plummet and Shanghai stocks soon follow. China goes from a net creditor to a net debtor. People’s savings disappear. It’s Japan Part II.

      3.) In a balanced point of view to keep people happy and the oil companies in business, China outsources all or nearly all of their oil exploration projects to BP, Shell, and other dirty, dirty foreigners. Import tariffs remain high but are positioned somewhere between the tariffs in the eurozone and the United States. Chinese stocks with little international exposure drop, but a few make it to the top. Growth slows, but remains modest.

      Jim Rogers called the bottom for Shanghai in late May, then called it again in late June, and will more than likely call the bottom yet again in late July. I’m almost reminded of the childhood tale of the boy who cried wolf.

      Eventually, people won’t care if the wolf exists or not.       Jul 21 07:33 PM
    • No Foole Like a Dubious Causality Foole II: Oil and the Market [view article]
      So, everything that negates your portfolio gains is a conspiracy theory now? Jul 16 04:00 PM
    • The World's Revenge [view article]
      I counted the words in each phrase, sentence, and paragraph. In defense of Michael Fitzsimmons, this article is not “98% criticism-2% solution”: it’s 86.2% hypocritical liberal rhetoric (what EU member doesn’t have a twin deficit and out-of-control government spending?), 2.1% portfolio suggestions (the “buy” phrases), and 11.7% fluff. Jul 08 07:46 PM
    • End of Quarter Dollar Assessment [view article]
      "For example, did you know that the US financial system has more debt than an entire gross domestic product?"

      As long as the total debt in the U.S. is below 800% of GDP, they're doing better than France. And Germany. And Portugal. And Monaco. And Spain. And the United Kingdom.

      Oddly enough, Turkey is being given a hard time by the European Union because of their debt problems. Turkey is doing much better than France. Maybe Turkey should keep the new lira.       Jun 30 02:57 PM
    • The Budget Deficit and Declining Dollar [view article]
      Your argument that foreign governments would flock to the euro due to national debt in each currency’s respective areas is a moot point. The top twenty most indebted countries, as a percentage of GDP, includes no less than six eurozone countries (including France and Germany), but does not include the United States.

      The move to peg one’s currency to the euro, and not a basket of currencies, as a replacement to the dollar can only be regarded as a politically-motivated move.       Jun 27 08:12 AM
    • What China's Stock Market Implosion Means for Oil [view article]
      I beg to differ, Mile. Let's put the politics and supremacy complexes aside.

      The majority of the Shanghai composite's moves lately have been led (up and down) by China's domestic major oil producers. They have to sell their oil to producers at an artificially low price by the Chinese government. When oil prices rise, they lose money; that explains the drama (2% losses or more daily) in the past few weeks. The minute a rumor surfaced about allowing domestic oil prices to rise, the SSE jumped 5%. Imagine what the U.S. stock market would look like if the Dow or S&P 500 were dominated by flaky banks and airlines other than Southwest: it would look horrible as well.

      The parallels between the Chinese oil companies and the American airlines are strikingly similar: they are being thrown back and forth by their respective governments' regulations and they are dependent on subsidies.

      I've seen this scenario unfold before. Several people are expecting SSE to follow the Nikkei circa 1990. That probably explains the various support levels being as low as 2000 (67% from their high, much like the bubbly Nikkei back in the day).       Jun 18 05:04 PM
    • China Sputters Along [view article]
      I typed in "MYST.OB" and it's your everyday pump-and-dump stock. From $2 in 2003 to $0.20 today (most of which from a "e36750@gmail.com...

      If I want 90% losses in China, I'll visit Macao.       May 29 04:49 PM
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