User 142738

Global 'Oil Shock' Rattles World Stock Markets

I normally have no opinion about the "peak oil" theory, but the chart shown in the article clearly shows production, not proven reserves. The "peak" was considered to be at 1981 in 1979. Now it's predicted to be at 2010 in 2008.

I'm also incredibly skeptical about numbers coming out of China about oil consumption (as well as any other number). The Chinese Communist Party's motto should be: "If at first we don't succeed, lower the standards." The worldwide poverty line is set, rather arbitrarily, at living on less than $1 (adjusted for purchasing parity) per day. The Party defines their poverty line at living on less than $0.70 per day. I contrast this with poverty lines defined by individual first-world governments that go up to $33 a day!

Considering how notorious the "big four" emerging markets are for putting price ceilings on commodities like cooking oil and gasoline, I'd predict 1970's-style shortages and rations, not to mention riots in the streets of Peking and Bombay.