Forrest's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/142893/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/138682-debunking-citron-s-hit-job-on-world-acceptance-corp-part-2?source=feed#comment-519910 519910 Wed, 27 May 2009 14:04:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137166-debunking-citron-s-hit-job-on-world-acceptance-corp?source=feed#comment-503014 503014 Wed, 13 May 2009 22:01:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94787-washington-post-revisiting-the-story-behind-capital-one?source=feed#comment-251558 251558
Early on when this IBS was new, Capital One customers were primarily sub-prime, and some would wonder why their rate increased for no apparent reason. The reason was that through the IBS model, it was discovered that the customer's credit rating may have changed, or that the customer may have recently maxed out another card in their wallet, which of course increases risk to Capital One.
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Early on when this IBS was new, Capital One customers were primarily sub-prime, and some would wonder why their rate increased for no apparent reason. The reason was that through the IBS model, it was discovered that the customer's credit rating may have changed, or that the customer may have recently maxed out another card in their wallet, which of course increases risk to Capital One.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90160-capital-one-a-different-short-case?source=feed#comment-230508 230508
Anyway Andrew, I look forward to your next article here at SA and I'll be nice - even if you write about shorting COF again - but don't expect all people to be nice, agree with you, or even thank you, when you post about just about any short. I went back and read your articles about shorting the company the makes those goofy little rubber shoes. Even without delving into the numbers, to me that thing had short written all over it. Moreover, after looking at those responses, one would have thought you had peed in their Cheerios or even worse! On the other hand, post about idea on a long and almost everyone will pat you on the back – or at the least, you don't get any response at all.

Also, NC Trader, sorry to hijack your thread - you wrote a very good article.

Best of luck to all,

Forrest
]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 15:05:33 -0400
Anyway Andrew, I look forward to your next article here at SA and I'll be nice - even if you write about shorting COF again - but don't expect all people to be nice, agree with you, or even thank you, when you post about just about any short. I went back and read your articles about shorting the company the makes those goofy little rubber shoes. Even without delving into the numbers, to me that thing had short written all over it. Moreover, after looking at those responses, one would have thought you had peed in their Cheerios or even worse! On the other hand, post about idea on a long and almost everyone will pat you on the back – or at the least, you don't get any response at all.

Also, NC Trader, sorry to hijack your thread - you wrote a very good article.

Best of luck to all,

Forrest
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90160-capital-one-a-different-short-case?source=feed#comment-228731 228731
On the other hand, I too have gotten more than a little hot under the collar with COF’s management when they decide to branch out into banking, auto loans, mortgage loans, and HELoC. Yes, COF could do no wrong as a pure credit card play in the ’90 and even up to about ’05. They consistently made money, grew, and their write-offs were better than normal, especially since that they started as a sub-prime credit card issuer. As time went on, COF migrated more to a main-stream card issuer, which I think was a move in the right direction. Everything seemed well until COF decide to buy Hibernia Bank during Katrina, but the stock price held up. Now with the substantial exposure to the NYC (and elsewhere) mortgage melt-down, big home-equity lines of credit, some of which are tied to foreclosure properties, you bet that Capital One is feeling the pressure. Did I mention auto loans? You would think that auto loans would still hold up, but even once great sub-prime used car loan maker Americredit (AFC), is now sucking wind. That being said, I think that COF’s current mid-40’s price reflects the true value for this company at this time, and I think that the market already has those factors that you and this author address already built in to the price.

One thing COF shorts and potential shorts do need to watch for is that at current levels is that COF’s stock price tends to ride up or down with market in general. Lately, very seldom do you find a day where COF’s will go down when the market in general is going up. If you have a big down day or week in the market you can probably short just about any financial and come out on top. I personally think that the big short opportunity on COF happened last year when if dropped from the 70’s to its current trading level. As for shorts and puts on COF? I would say make money in a daily position. Take a COF short position and hold on to it? To me that would be like playing with fire.

BTW, if you guys like to look a financial stocks that go against the grain and don’t have much coverage, take a look at World Acceptance Corp (WRLD), but hell what do I know, I didn’t sell COF when it was in the 90’s!
]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 13:00:16 -0400
On the other hand, I too have gotten more than a little hot under the collar with COF’s management when they decide to branch out into banking, auto loans, mortgage loans, and HELoC. Yes, COF could do no wrong as a pure credit card play in the ’90 and even up to about ’05. They consistently made money, grew, and their write-offs were better than normal, especially since that they started as a sub-prime credit card issuer. As time went on, COF migrated more to a main-stream card issuer, which I think was a move in the right direction. Everything seemed well until COF decide to buy Hibernia Bank during Katrina, but the stock price held up. Now with the substantial exposure to the NYC (and elsewhere) mortgage melt-down, big home-equity lines of credit, some of which are tied to foreclosure properties, you bet that Capital One is feeling the pressure. Did I mention auto loans? You would think that auto loans would still hold up, but even once great sub-prime used car loan maker Americredit (AFC), is now sucking wind. That being said, I think that COF’s current mid-40’s price reflects the true value for this company at this time, and I think that the market already has those factors that you and this author address already built in to the price.

One thing COF shorts and potential shorts do need to watch for is that at current levels is that COF’s stock price tends to ride up or down with market in general. Lately, very seldom do you find a day where COF’s will go down when the market in general is going up. If you have a big down day or week in the market you can probably short just about any financial and come out on top. I personally think that the big short opportunity on COF happened last year when if dropped from the 70’s to its current trading level. As for shorts and puts on COF? I would say make money in a daily position. Take a COF short position and hold on to it? To me that would be like playing with fire.

BTW, if you guys like to look a financial stocks that go against the grain and don’t have much coverage, take a look at World Acceptance Corp (WRLD), but hell what do I know, I didn’t sell COF when it was in the 90’s!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90160-capital-one-a-different-short-case?source=feed#comment-227845 227845 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 12:11:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69640-double-whammy-bank-card-companies-may-be-next?source=feed#comment-131231 131231 Tue, 25 Mar 2008 12:17:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/60569-the-problem-with-capital-one-financial?source=feed#comment-112250 112250 Tue, 22 Jan 2008 15:01:16 -0500