User 143167

Weekly Market Notes: Is the Data Really That Bad?

I don't know what is going down the fastest in this country, the economy, the dollar or its integrity?

Are U.S. Consumers Saving Enough?

The B of A analysis is wrong, because it neglects the demographic pattern in the US. 2010 is not 1983 as the major US population, a.k.a. the baby boomers are now retiring and won't be able to take more risky investments such as equities, instead they will have to reduce the debt and lower the consumption propensity. They are not the young people they were in 1980s who could build their net wealth on projected asset inflation any more.

Yellen's Deflationist 'Black Hole'

That's nonsense. Can anyone in the Fed spell STAGFLATION correctly? It seems to me that word never exists in their economic books. The uneconomy can run a high inflation or even hyperinflation when having huge slack at the same time. Inflation in a country is more of a function to the value of its currency rather than the utilization rate. The premise for low utilization rate to keep a high inflation away is gold standard, which we don't have today. That means, provided very low utilization rate today to persist, if we price everything in gold, there would never be inflation. However, if we price everything in the dollar, the answer will be much different, as the dollar could be even more oversupplied than the goods are, and goods prices (in dollar term) will definately rise.

What Bernanke's Comments All Mean

You have to take the due responsibilites if your currency is a reserve currency. Otherwise, bring the gold standard back and stop selling treasury bills. Reserve currency is not only a previlige, but also a responsibility attached to it.

Inflation Expectations: Slowly Inching Higher

The headline YoY CPI will reach above 3% at the end of THIS YEAR. Bet on it!

Watching the USD Drop? Here's What You Should Really Be Watching

It is Foreign debt to GDP that matters. In Japan's case, most of its debts are actually owned by Japanese residents. So government debts will cancel out with the private assets, which makes the Yen remain stable. In the US, over half of the debts are not held by US residents, which is the key why the USD should depreciate.

Dollar-Equity Correlation: Roubini's Got It Wrong (Again)

There is huge leverage going on this year, not through the brokers marginal accounts, but from the government, and I am not just talking about the US government. Every government is trying to load private debts on their own balance sheet and finance that with new bills printed (which are debts).

As a whole, there is HUGE releveraging in the world now, not deleveraging.

The Dollar's Decline is Slowing Down

So stupid. As far as I know, the country with its people holding most of the dollar assets are the US. If the dollar becomes worthless, it will be the American people who get hurt most.

Weak Dollar Has Yet to Affect Import Prices

oil price was generally flat in September(thanks to the trading regulation of CFTC), so will import prices be. But if the dollar continues to plunge, you will see a much quicker import price inflation in the next a few months.
Inflation is evitable if the Fed did not abandon its current policies.

Declining Dollar: The Markets' Take

If the US has a double dip, the dollar will go UP, not down.

The dollar does not trade on macro economies, but on market risk appetites.

Negative Interest Rates Aren't a Solution to the Crisis

If the Fed officially carries out a negative interest rate policy, the 0% real yield gold will be over $3000 in a blink of eye.

Valuations Ahead, Not Behind

$74 on 2010 is too good to be true. The highest S&P500 earnings were around $90, with 35 from the financials and 55 from others. The financials will have only half of their best earnings in 2010, that is $18, so the non-financial earnings have to be $56 to make it $74, which means the non-financial operating earnings will make a historical new high in 2010! Day dreaming!

Low Inflation Concerns to Serve as a Launching Pad for Stocks

The headline CPI at the year end with current oil price unchanged will be 3%. If the Fed does not do anything, the negative real yield will soon make itself into an asset bubble and inflation by releveraging.

Is the Recession Really Over?

The recession is over. We are now heading for stagflation, which would be ended by another even deeper recession in 2011.

Inflation Expectations and the Price of Hedges

In a slavery economic system, you can keep the labor cost low and stable almost for ever as long as slaves are enough. So according to your logic, its government will never face the problem of inflation right? However, the history never suggested so.
So I think inflation or even hyperinflaiton can actually emerge with labors negotiation power being very low.