User 143167

Time for Contingency Plan for Economy Upturn

This CPI number is fool's gold. Don't expect another month with -1.3 apparel and NSA CPI is 0.9, not promising to say the least. NSA CPI MoM at or above 0.9 only showed up twice during the last decade.

Housing Starts Down, Consumer Prices Up

Even with the shitty CPI model used by the BLS, the CPI will very likely go up very quickly in the third quarter of this year due to the seasonal adjustment effects if the crude oil price keeps hovering over $110 a barrel.
Another leading indicator to the CPI is the import price index which also went straight up in the recent months. This bodes ill for the inflation control too.

How the Weak Dollar Impacts Earnings

Cheapest, by which standard? PE or PB? If it is by exchange rate, Zimbabwe stocks are the Cheapest!

The Housing Crisis: Personal Responsibility and Wishful Thinking

In a "perfect Greenspan's world", eternal economic growth would be attained if the Fed can lock low interests, as long as they can adjust calculus models to "control" inflation.

Dear Mr. Bernanke

Michael, if the Fed did not cut rates and injected liquidity like this, a depression induced by massive bank runs is very likely. So the Fed chose to avoid the depression and took the risks of staflation.
Intel's quarter earning would be a non-factor if the global financial system collapsed.

Good Dollar News, But Not Much Impact

Good Dollar News? Think about it this way:
The rising manufacturing index only reflects that the exports are stronger than expectation, which means the global economies are holding off pretty well so far. NOT good news for the dollar.
The weakening German sentiment is mainly due to the rising inflation, which gives the ECB more reason to be hawkish. NOT good news for the dollar too.

10 Reasons to Be Bullish on Stocks

If 20% off from all time high makes it, Bear markets are across the globe except the US who actually produces the mess. This is what's really AMAZING.
Doesn't really matter we're trading at the one of the highest PEs in the world! Nothing really matters as we've hit the technical bottom on the charts!

Dear Mr. Bernanke

In a crisis combined 1930 depression with 1970 stagflation, the Fed just has no way out.
Bernanke is not the guy to blame. He is trying to save this mess which was formed by a decade of irresponsible monetary policy and consumer behaviors.

10 Reasons to Be Bullish on Stocks

It is amazing that all of his 10 reasons are speculations, but NO facts.

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

Gunslinger, it is not a prediction, but a FACT that Russian Energy Ministry implied that that country's oil production peaked.
You are right that there will be more oil to be drilled out if the oil prices keep going up. However, that doesn't mean the oil price will go down, because the marginal drilling costs have also risen at the same pace of the oil price.

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

It could be a scam in oil trading, but you should also notice that Russia's oil output is starting to wane down and this world's oil production's very likely peaked in 2007 and may only go down from now. You can always argue that American consumption is going down, but how about global consumption?
And you call a bottom in the equities day in and day out. How come are you so optimistic if I agree with IMF's chilling predictions?
For the "surprising" retail number, I saw nothing else beside inflation. So be prepared for a HUGE CPI number on Wedenesday, but what's new?

A Long-Term View: Is This Market Ripe for Opportunities?

"For all the sky-is-falling worries about housing, weak dollar, national debt, and toxic credit, we remain far above our 2002 lows and less than 15% off all-time highs."
That is exactly what you should worry about.

Fair Value Target for the S & P 500: 1420

With this earning down cycle of S&P500 companies to be well carried over to the end of the 2008 or even 2009, 1150 will be a much realistic bottom. The current 2008 S&P500 earning forecast at $99.67 is a joke. We will be lucky to end up with $75, but it will be in Q3 for the investors to realize that.

Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

Philip, quit your hate on commodity and illusion on US stocks. It doesn not make any sense to attribute the commodity bull market to the traders. The iron ore and coal have never been traded on any exchanges, but topped the price hikes among all commodities YTD.
You are so biased not because commodity prices will never fall, but because they should fall well after the "ridiculous expensive" US stock market tanks another 20% and more I-Banks gone for ever.
I don't see any attractiveness in the US stocks with a over 20xPE and 2008 earning growth at ZERO.

Options Trader: Tuesday Outlook

If you are a long term bull, you'd better hope a full Democracy political dominance. Consumption taxes aside, you will also get a higher personal income tax, 25% capital gain tax,...and a boycott to foreign trade. Hopefully they do not really mean what they said. Bury the idea that Americans can still produce enough and cheaply, it will be 20% inflation in the US without China and India, even with oil price down to $50 per barrel.