.crazylegs..

Nokia's a Juggernaut, But What's Left to Conquer?

Difficult to recommend a stock that you, yourself don't have high regard for. The opinion and article contents don't seem to match your "Quick Look" stats.

Quick Look

Date: Apr 13, 2009
Growth: C
Competitive Moat: C+
Management: B+
Financial Health: B-
Opinion: Scale advantage, organic growth potential, fairly cheap.

Smartphone Wars to Heat Up This Summer

JamesApple - are you still blaming RIM for the current financial crisis? Just curious. I recently read one of your rants that blamed them.

Who Will Win the Smartphone Wars?

Back it again again brewdog! i thought you would be quiet after your rim "creative" accounting blunder where you ignorantly wondered out loud how rim's margins could be decent when vz is offering bogo, not realizing vz is subsidizing the phone, and not rim.

in re the keyboard, funny that the iphone does that because rim's phones do that as well, and have for some time. again, ignorant of facts. please stop posting, i'm getting tired of pointing out your mistakes. it's fine to love your iphone, i love mine (but prefer to use the bb day to day), but at least try to be a little balanced in your approach.

besides, if apple has been leading tech since '79, the why for almost 30 years such low mkt share? just a question.


On Apr 08 10:50 AM brewer wrote:

> Windows Mobile and RIM are basically 90's technology compared to
> the iPhone. Palm is simply a rip off, with a dumb keyboard for
> those who think they somehow can't type on screen. They only reason
> they have Pre is that they hired away Jon Rubenstein from Apple.
> (Guess that once the megahertz myth was a moot point--intel move,
> he had nothing left to explain at Apple.)
>
> I find the predictive correction on the iPhone/iPod keyboard to be
> so good that it's faster than using a fixed keyboard. And it's
> great that it can change to add whatever key you want, and even hold
> a key to get any diacritical. Try that on any other keyboard!<br/>
>
> Apple is leading tech to an even greater extent now, but this has
> been their role since 1979.

Who Will Win the Smartphone Wars?

and of course only software matters and not air interface/data transmission technologies. while apple can write some serious code they don't understand yet the scarcities involved in mobile. their devices end up using so much bandwidth that carriers need to upgrade and upgrade. look at att's capex plans ahead of iphone launch in june. meanwhile rim approaches everything from an efficiency standpoint and compresses data that moves over the network. this gives them an advantage when it comes to carrier incentives. regardless of the nonsense written here, the macro picture means there will be plenty of business for multiple smartphone vendors for the next few years so it is quite possible both rim and apple can coexist and prosper simultaneously. (ps. don't tell that to any of the apple fans here, they won't believe it)

and remember the best technology does not always equal the most mkt share. many factors affect ultimate end sales.

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

hayweed, timbom - must get tiring defending apple so vociferously every day. do you take extra vitamins each day?

Fourth Quarter Sees Decline in Cell Phone Shipments

Dumb comparison for apple and RIM. While the largest manufacturers are flat, the movement from dumb to smart phones is helping both RIM and Apple. Look at the YOY growth for both of them. And look at RIM's sequential growth. The only reason Apple didn't grow sequentially is due to the product cycle (comparing vs prior 3G launch Q which was preceded by two months of zero iPhone sales). Just terrible analysis in this POS.

Buy, Sell or Hold: Research in Motion Poised to Snag More Market Share

it's always fun to see people talk about how the company did compared to analysts guesstimates. Who cares? I'd rather track absolute performance, and this has been nothing short of exceptional for RIM.

The Benefits of a Standardized MicroUSB

you give phone buyers way too much credit when saying they are waiting for a post-micro usb world to buy that new gadget. 99% of mobile phone buyers don't even think about the charger. They just expect it to come in the box. I certainly hope this standardization is the future as it will make things easier especially when traveling.

Sector Overview: Handsets

Why would any self respecting RIM shareholder want Dell stock?

Five Reasons RIMM Will Continue to Fall

Questions:
1. Why is Price to Sales the only metric you care about? Do earnings matter?
2. When you calculate price to sales, why do you ONLY include handsets and not SERVICE REVENUE?

Answers:
1. YES
2. Because your total lack of understanding limits you. So you say that RIM (not RIMM, that's the ticker, not the name of the company) could sell 100 million handsets in a few years. If that was the case, assuming the usual 50/50 split between upgrades and new subs, then 50 million new subs would be added. At ARPU of just half current ARPU of $7 (from service fees, Matt) or $3.5 per month, per sub, equals $2.1B annual revenue from JUST service fees at 80% margins, 30% taxes, that alone equals over $1 billion after tax profits, which you could easily place a 20 multiple on. And the user base would have grown dramatically if they got to those number. So you would have to add device sales PLUS service fees for existing customers and OBVIOUSLY the value of this enterprise will be far greater than your ridiculously inane target value.

Five Reasons RIMM Will Continue to Fall

I re-read this article and it strikes me how DUMB this it is. Uses faulty valuation metrics. Never looks at earnings. Doesn't once mention how to value the service revenue. Doesn't look at carrier incentives. Pretty much doesn't add any real value to this site. Thanks for a nothing article Matt. You will be proven wrong in the next 12 months.

Five Reasons RIMM Will Continue to Fall

Any iPhone user will defend it to death. There is no reason involved. So of course iPhone will be in every single person's pocket in the world and no other mobile phone will ever be sold again. Why try to reason an iPhonatic? It's a fool's errand. Anyone with half a brain knows the end market for these devices is huge and growing so anyone who brings value to the table will sell tons of devices.

Five Reasons RIMM Will Continue to Fall

This article will be proven to be DEAD wrong. I would suggest reading the last two conference calls for obvious clues why.

You are missing a HUGE point that the service revenue, which carries 80% margins, is currently at an annual run rate of $1.3B, and that number is increasing as they sell more devices. Even if I buy your ridiculous assumptions, you haven't included a nickel of valuation for that high margin, recurring revenue stream.

The carrier argument is simply wrong. Carriers love Blackberry. Why? Value added subs. And the best part is that you don't have to step up to the full blown unlimited data package with the BB if the carrier offers a cheap (or pre-paid) email plan. There is huge demand elasticity in data as carriers seek to get more out of existing subs and RIM is uniquely positioned to drive this. Please look at economic incentive schemes before posting this dribble. Did I mention that RIM compresses all the data as well - yet another incentive for carriers to have BBs on their network. Just ask ATT about the $1B they have to spend because iPhones are using so much capacity (because they are such great internet devices).

This article is poorly though out using the wrong valuation assumptions. How can you simply ignore the service fees. At least tell us they are going away. Weak. Just weak.

Here's What Will Happen To Apple's Rivals

It always amazes me that people actually believe that activesync is a true replacement for the BES/Blackberry solution. It's not. It doesn't come close. Does anyone do homework these days?
- It uses a tremendous amount if precious device resources like battery power.
- It is not totally secure.
- The device pings the mail server. What large security minded corporation wants to open their firewalls to incoming pings?

This is just the tip of the iceberg. Don't believe the hype. The iPhone will kill it, no doubt, but so will RIM, and even some others, as the market for smartphones explodes. Good luck on your paired trade...

Here's What Will Happen To Apple's Rivals

Firestar - Reason Number 1 - Windows Mobile. Ask Motorola if form factors are enough to have a durable competitive advantage in regards to the razr.