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morlockx15

morlockx15
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  • My First, Last, And Only Short [View article]
    You have to decide to short, then short after a couple up days for the target stock. That takes guts.
    In the same vein, I learned to never trade stocks on a Tuesday. Why? Here's the scenario: The average investor mulls over possible trades over the weekend, and decides on a course of action. But he is hesitant and holds off, waiting to see what happens Monday. If Monday confirms his beliefs, then he enters the trade-long or short- Tuesday morning. IMO that is why Tuesday is usually a whip-saw day for volatile stocks, as the pros eat average Joe investor alive.
    Aug 3 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amidst Ongoing Doubts, Exact Sciences Still Offers Opportunity [View article]
    You state the problem, like the CEO did during the CC. He said he aunt was putting off her colonoscopy to wait for the test. Like you would probably do if it was time for one. But-and this is the point- both of you would have gone through with your colonoscopies already if it wasn't for the test. So this is a negative for clinics. A colonoscopy is diagnostic and in many cases curative. Worse, the CEO didn't realize it was a negative (start whistling, boys).
    What would be a positive if someone who is adamantly against getting a colonoscopy or any screening test says "Hey! This Cologuard test really sounds neat! I am going to muck around with my stool, package it up and send it off Parcep Post to a diagnostic lab to see if I have cancer. Then I might get a colonoscopy."
    Do you think that will be a common scenario?
    I don't.
    Jul 24 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amidst Ongoing Doubts, Exact Sciences Still Offers Opportunity [View article]
    If this test was truly a breakthrough, the FDA would have fast-tracked approval years ago, but they didn't. If it was cost-effective, the large clinics would be clamoring for it. Not happening. That's why they issued a secondary and now have a large war chest for a major-league PR and sales campaign.
    Read the conference call transcript carefully. I thought I heard some whistling in the dark.
    Speculative money only on this one.
    Jul 23 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Seadrill Upgraded By BMO Capital Markets; Price Target Increased To $44/Share [View article]
    Don't be fooled by Rat's "knowledge" about SDRL.

    Read his second paragraph again.

    "Seadrill does not have negative cash flow and is not borrowing to pay the dividends.."

    Complete nonsense.

    Invest in SDRL, but do NOT do it based on Rat's posts.
    Jul 16 07:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Terrific Reasons Why Ambarella Should Be In Your Portfolio [View article]
    AMBA has a ton of patents, and an image sensor is different than the semi-conductor chip responsible for compressing the images.
    Jul 14 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cologuard Will Dominate Its Addressable Market [View article]
    You don't get it. You don't just PROVIDE a stool sample. You muck with it yourself in the toilet, then package it up and then run down to the UPS store to ship it YOURSELF! Big difference. Sound like fun? Well, maybe for you, it would be.
    I have had the bowel prep for a colonoscopy, and it WAS benign. The procedure was easy and went very smooth- from what I remember of it which isn't much due to the sedation.
    May 27 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cologuard Will Dominate Its Addressable Market [View article]
    If you can talk a patient into mucking around with his or her own stool, and then packaging it up and sending it off to UPS, then you can CERTAINLY talk them into a colonoscopy. The prep is benign. My office comment was trying to find a way where someone would not have to handle their own excrement and still get the test. Don't bet the farm on this test- it is a loser.
    May 25 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cologuard Will Dominate Its Addressable Market [View article]
    If you can talk a patient into mucking around with his or her own stool, and then packaging it up and sending it off to UPS, then you can CERTAINLY talk them into a colonoscopy. The prep is benign. My office comment was trying to find a way where someone would not have to handle their own excrement and still get the test. Don't bet the farm on this one.
    May 25 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cologuard Will Dominate Its Addressable Market [View article]
    I can see the Cologuard test being a slo-mo train wreck after approval and the price is set. People simply are not going to want to muck with their own stool. The smell of human feces is the most repulsive of all smells found in nature. Studies have shown this. I can barely conceive of a special situation developing where folks can come into their doctors office when the urge strikes, do their business, and let the nurse "handle" it. But that would mean nurse time- not cheap.
    May 23 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: A Long-Term Investment Opportunity In A High-Yielding Stock [View article]
    SDRL's D/E ratio is 3X RIG's and 5X ESV.
    Make you nervous? Fundamentals, after all.
    Probably not.
    Rah-rah comment from Rat in three...two...one...
    May 21 09:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Physician Compares Gilead's And AbbVie's Hepatitis C Products [View article]
    Just note for investors- the GILD "cure" for HepC will not translate over to a cure for HIV. A different kettle of fish.
    May 12 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXAS: Testing Negative For Future Revenue [View article]
    The only way it will succeed is if it DOES replace a significant number of colonoscopies. If you think it will be successful as a screening test at 7-8 times the cost of FIT, you are delusional.
    May 2 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXAS: Testing Negative For Future Revenue [View article]
    I disagree somewhat. The only reason to embrace the cologuard test if it can reduce the number of colonocopies performed, or catch cancers early enough to have a net positive effect on costs. There is every indication that it won't.
    May 2 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXAS: Testing Negative For Future Revenue [View article]
    I disagree absolutely. You are being disingenuous, or hold a long position. The efficacy numbers do not support its replacing colonoscopy, and will delay the detection of cancers. In the aggregate it will wind up costing HMO's more money.
    May 2 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXAS: Testing Negative For Future Revenue [View article]
    Doctor- in your opinion , are these patients who would otherwise undergo the colonoscopy procedure if the Cologuard was NOT an option? That is a key question. The EXAS assumption is that the test would draw patients out of the pool of those who absolutely refuse colonoscopy. But I think the test will mainly draw patients out of the pool who would get one- but reluctantly. And that is a big pool. If so, the test will NOT be embraced by HMOs.
    May 1 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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