stretcho44's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/144243/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/133896-stress-tests-show-citi-bofa-need-more-money?source=feed#comment-482755 482755
The Friedman Billings Ramsey estimates were based on more extreme estimates of unemployment than the Treasury used that may or may not occur. ]]> Wed, 29 Apr 2009 12:33:01 -0400
The Friedman Billings Ramsey estimates were based on more extreme estimates of unemployment than the Treasury used that may or may not occur. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130489-chart-of-the-week-vxv-and-the-risk-of-systemic-failure?source=feed#comment-460796 460796
Notice the date when the VIX exploded upward. Oct. 2008.]]> Sun, 12 Apr 2009 16:17:45 -0400
Notice the date when the VIX exploded upward. Oct. 2008.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128355-the-up-tick-rule-reimplementation-is-bad-for-markets?source=feed#comment-444276 444276
Your article is quite self-serving and you are part of the problem that uptick-type rules are designed to protect us from.]]> Sun, 29 Mar 2009 14:35:05 -0400
Your article is quite self-serving and you are part of the problem that uptick-type rules are designed to protect us from.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107364-citigroup-the-end-draws-near?source=feed#comment-313037 313037
The problem is the lack of an UPTICK rule allows massive, concentrated short selling that cascades when long sellers have to sell too. It might not be an "uptick rule" but there really needs to be some mechanism to throttle the short selling rate.


On Nov 22 12:02 PM Emerald wrote:

> Financially, Citi can survive. Short sellers are on the rampage and
> naked short sellers should be put in jail! Paulson has chosen to
> leave his job early and should be fired immediately for incompetence.
> Bush just left the country in a crisis. Reinstate the uptick rule
> and provide Citi a bridge loan. Otherwise, Citi's failure will show
> us what the "new" great deprssion will look like when the government
> institutes a national bank holiday through the end of January 2009.]]> Sun, 23 Nov 2008 14:41:13 -0500
The problem is the lack of an UPTICK rule allows massive, concentrated short selling that cascades when long sellers have to sell too. It might not be an "uptick rule" but there really needs to be some mechanism to throttle the short selling rate.


On Nov 22 12:02 PM Emerald wrote:

> Financially, Citi can survive. Short sellers are on the rampage and
> naked short sellers should be put in jail! Paulson has chosen to
> leave his job early and should be fired immediately for incompetence.
> Bush just left the country in a crisis. Reinstate the uptick rule
> and provide Citi a bridge loan. Otherwise, Citi's failure will show
> us what the "new" great deprssion will look like when the government
> institutes a national bank holiday through the end of January 2009.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107364-citigroup-the-end-draws-near?source=feed#comment-313036 313036
The problem is the lack of an UPTICK rule allows massive, concentrated short selling that cascades when long sellers have to sell too. It might not be an "uptick rule" but there really needs to be some mechanism to throttle the short selling rate.


On Nov 22 12:02 PM Emerald wrote:

> Financially, Citi can survive. Short sellers are on the rampage and
> naked short sellers should be put in jail! Paulson has chosen to
> leave his job early and should be fired immediately for incompetence.
> Bush just left the country in a crisis. Reinstate the uptick rule
> and provide Citi a bridge loan. Otherwise, Citi's failure will show
> us what the "new" great deprssion will look like when the government
> institutes a national bank holiday through the end of January 2009.]]> Sun, 23 Nov 2008 14:37:20 -0500
The problem is the lack of an UPTICK rule allows massive, concentrated short selling that cascades when long sellers have to sell too. It might not be an "uptick rule" but there really needs to be some mechanism to throttle the short selling rate.


On Nov 22 12:02 PM Emerald wrote:

> Financially, Citi can survive. Short sellers are on the rampage and
> naked short sellers should be put in jail! Paulson has chosen to
> leave his job early and should be fired immediately for incompetence.
> Bush just left the country in a crisis. Reinstate the uptick rule
> and provide Citi a bridge loan. Otherwise, Citi's failure will show
> us what the "new" great deprssion will look like when the government
> institutes a national bank holiday through the end of January 2009.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106634-congress-offers-big-three-automakers-help-makes-demands-in-exchange?source=feed#comment-309145 309145 dtcc.com/products/deri... shows that there is a $3.3/b net position on GM defaults documented through DTCC. DTCC thinks that they have 70% of the market for CDS so $3.3b losses for those writing the CDS will be close.

]]> Tue, 18 Nov 2008 14:16:16 -0500 dtcc.com/products/deri... shows that there is a $3.3/b net position on GM defaults documented through DTCC. DTCC thinks that they have 70% of the market for CDS so $3.3b losses for those writing the CDS will be close.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96659-ban-on-short-selling-could-have-negative-consequences-for-options-market?source=feed#comment-261439 261439 Mon, 22 Sep 2008 11:02:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95022-cboe-put-call-ratio-indicates-negative-outlook?source=feed#comment-252776 252776
A growing number of people are writing in the money or at the money put options to buy shares at a lower effective price. The excess put premium over the intrinsic value reduces the effective price I have to pay for shares. This kind of put volume is bullish not bearish.

I have watched stocks under attack by short sellers who cannot get shares to short sell in the money call options. Their call volume is not bullish.

Taking the ratio may give some indication but there is an increasing amount of noise in the ratio. This noise makes it less reliable.]]> Fri, 12 Sep 2008 11:57:15 -0400
A growing number of people are writing in the money or at the money put options to buy shares at a lower effective price. The excess put premium over the intrinsic value reduces the effective price I have to pay for shares. This kind of put volume is bullish not bearish.

I have watched stocks under attack by short sellers who cannot get shares to short sell in the money call options. Their call volume is not bullish.

Taking the ratio may give some indication but there is an increasing amount of noise in the ratio. This noise makes it less reliable.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83770-crystal-rivers-q2-write-downs-could-bankrupt-the-company?source=feed#comment-198729 198729
The pattern of 3 very negative Seeking Alpha articles on small companies where he holds a short or long put position is the most revealing pattern of all.

It may not be but it has the appearance that the prime motive is personal gain.
]]> Fri, 04 Jul 2008 19:25:16 -0400
The pattern of 3 very negative Seeking Alpha articles on small companies where he holds a short or long put position is the most revealing pattern of all.

It may not be but it has the appearance that the prime motive is personal gain.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77390-newcastle-rait-financial-the-long-case-for-reits?source=feed#comment-169394 169394
The application of Fair Value does not imply any need to repurchase the liabilities. It does however give a much better current value of the company when comparing asset values that are required to be marked to market value.

The NCT $1.3bn from the sale of assets was used to pay down liabilities. The liabilities were not paid off at face value. The liabilities were paid off at market value.



]]> Sat, 17 May 2008 15:18:45 -0400
The application of Fair Value does not imply any need to repurchase the liabilities. It does however give a much better current value of the company when comparing asset values that are required to be marked to market value.

The NCT $1.3bn from the sale of assets was used to pay down liabilities. The liabilities were not paid off at face value. The liabilities were paid off at market value.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74863-reits-still-some-bargains-out-there?source=feed#comment-161320 161320 Sun, 04 May 2008 00:11:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74863-reits-still-some-bargains-out-there?source=feed#comment-160680 160680
The Zacks ratings Greg published in March for RAS said he expected RAS to earn $1.30 for 2008. This means he expected they will be paying 90% of the $1.30 or $1.17 this year in dividends. At the current RAS $7.50 price, that is a dividend yield of 15.6% for the year. The $5.00 2008 target he set for RAS would imply a dividend yield of 23.4%.If RAS performs like CEO David Cohen has said several times, RAS would continue the dividend at $1.84. At $1.84, the dividend yield for a $7.50 stock price would be 23% and at your $5.00 target would be 36%.

If RAS makes the $214M in fees Cohen estimated, the dividend would be higher than the $1.84.

If management numbers were met, buyers today would get a 23% return. If your much worse forecast happens, then the 15% dividend yield seems like a pretty good for the 6 months.

Greg also forgot to add a stock position disclosure to the end of the interview.

]]> Fri, 02 May 2008 10:53:23 -0400
The Zacks ratings Greg published in March for RAS said he expected RAS to earn $1.30 for 2008. This means he expected they will be paying 90% of the $1.30 or $1.17 this year in dividends. At the current RAS $7.50 price, that is a dividend yield of 15.6% for the year. The $5.00 2008 target he set for RAS would imply a dividend yield of 23.4%.If RAS performs like CEO David Cohen has said several times, RAS would continue the dividend at $1.84. At $1.84, the dividend yield for a $7.50 stock price would be 23% and at your $5.00 target would be 36%.

If RAS makes the $214M in fees Cohen estimated, the dividend would be higher than the $1.84.

If management numbers were met, buyers today would get a 23% return. If your much worse forecast happens, then the 15% dividend yield seems like a pretty good for the 6 months.

Greg also forgot to add a stock position disclosure to the end of the interview.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71324-accounting-antics-lift-i-bank-earnings-barron-s?source=feed#comment-146519 146519
The other side is when the debt is securitized and simply passed through to other investors. The asset has to be marked to market which books a loss but the liability could not until the recent FaS Rule 159 became effective. Mortgage REITs have large negative EPS simply because the of the writedown of only one side. When FAS 159 is applied the book values of these companies take a good positive jump. They have their problems and risks but as a group have a 25% short interest, yield 20% in dividends and will show a large jump in book value when Q1 earnings are released.

In this case, FAS Rule 159 makes a lot of sense.
]]> Mon, 07 Apr 2008 14:12:42 -0400
The other side is when the debt is securitized and simply passed through to other investors. The asset has to be marked to market which books a loss but the liability could not until the recent FaS Rule 159 became effective. Mortgage REITs have large negative EPS simply because the of the writedown of only one side. When FAS 159 is applied the book values of these companies take a good positive jump. They have their problems and risks but as a group have a 25% short interest, yield 20% in dividends and will show a large jump in book value when Q1 earnings are released.

In this case, FAS Rule 159 makes a lot of sense.
]]>