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bakkbakk

bakkbakk
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  • Evidence Mounts That Deflation Is A Greater Risk Than Inflation [View article]
    While the recovery has been slow, many will say millions of jobs have been created since the recession and we needed easing, qe, twist, etc, which we did..... to a point......but when it becomes evident that the qe and other forms of liquidity stop creating jobs at a decent pace,(because in reality I think it is structural problems and not fed policies that need to change), because of fiscal policies and worries, (Obamacare turnout, fiscal cliff, gridlocked govt in an election year, bushbama tax cuts, etc.), that no matter what will hold back businesses from doing big or risky moves, why not enjoy some deflation for once.

    What I mean by structural is we have some serious issues I think could be helped with some good ol fashioned unedicated remedies

    1.) 47%-53% of people in the U.S. are getting some kind of govt aid
    2.) 50 million people are on food stamps
    3.) Manufacturing is what used to drive this country and has been taken over by
    A. Machines and better technology uplifting production needing less and less people
    B. Jobs are shipped overseas because they save the company money, bettering the profits to reinvest and to make shareholders happy
    C. Usually all of the above

    I have a huge question and Reagans speech that I viewed on Youtube from when he took office said it best....Corporate tax is just another tax on the consumer. (Raise the corporate tax, then the company raises the price to continue to produce the profits they need to succeed, invest, grow, and make shareholders happy.)

    So why do we need a corporate tax? Honestly? Lets say I am president for a day....While I do not believe in govt sticking their hands in business, I will only do it just this one time...

    Take the 36% corporate tax rate down to something low like a 5%-10%, or maybe even a 0%, BUT- all companies have to lower their prices to match the tax rate decrease. Don't get pissed and call me stupid quite yet.

    So in my perfect world lets say it happens, the companies are still getting the same profits tit for tat, but now consumers have 25%-36% more money to spend and even the savers do not suffer as much. With all of these great cuts I have just made, think of all of the people that can enjoy middle class now instead of the paultry 50k that goes absolutely nowhere.

    1-Imagine the competitiveness of all our companies in the global economy after we make these changes. We could be an exporter powerhouse of junk like China to an extent.

    2-Imagine the boom this would create but still bring in the same profits for the companies, and how many millions of jobs this would create in the process of demand. Make my $37k truck-$23,600, stop giving the overly large government their 36% cut, because lets be honest, republican or democrat, senate or house, female or male, black or white, healthcare reform or constant wars, the government is crap as a whole. The government is a service to me not a giant monopoly that gets to control every little thing I think, eat, or want to do, (within legal and moral limits of course)- the best thing about this is because prices are now 26-36% lower, companies have room to increase prices once again over the years due to demand! and to increase profits at a growth type pace instead of cyclical, making a great stock market for the years to come, to say the least. Lets face it-How much more can things really get without fixing the real issues I plan to fix? 50k truck? no thanks thats half of a house in the midwest.
    3. My fake dream impending boom would create so much demand through the global economy that we could bring those crappy jobs back and get the 50 million people off of welfare or food stamps and make them earn their keep, or a lot of them to some extent.

    Corporate tax helps pay (or not pay in these days) the governments billls. If the government didnt have so many "bills" they wouldnt need it. Getting the majority of the 50 mill of people back to work, reforming welfare to something respectable for people in real need and hard times, and getting our country off of entitlements, we could succeed in a real economy and not a fake Bernank one.

    While I know there are a lot more difficulties than I make it sound in making this happen in my perfect world there has got to be a better way for us.

    What is our next boom? Nat gas oil??? LAUGH OUT LOUD

    -this will not get single mothers back to work, they will not be working on the keystone and dangerous oil rigs, digging ditches, blowing up, etc. It will be good for the U.S. yes but it will not get people back to work. It will continue to keep the rich richer like the fossil fuel industry has for years.

    -technology maybe? ok great, how many jobs does that really create here in the U.S. after all of that manufacturing of that technology is done in thailand or Singapore or China? Still making the rich richer..

    I don't care how rich a rich person is nor will I ever. I am more concerned with the lack of opportunity for your average Joe who does not have the capability or did not have the pleasure of growing up with a silver spoon and getting that great education for free. Had tudors and a prep school, or just plain doesnt have the brain power to do great things. Smart and gifted people tend to forget that there are plenty of people that just cant do great things in life and struggle with the simplest of tasks. They will never be on that commercial as one of the guys who created instagram, or "helped you pay from your phone" or "we created words with friends"

    So during my 1 day presidency this is my plan, to get this out of the box idea to work and get this country back on its feet as a whole and not just the people that have the money to invest wisely.

    All kidding aside I believe there has to be a way to do something like this because let's face it, manufacturing is dead, technology can only go so far and I'd say we we've gotten to that point where my iphone needs to literally tuck me in at night or brush my teeth for me to be impressed for a "boom" to happen. The only thing I see in technology for the future is faster and better definition of apps, tv, etc. Fossil fuels will only help so many people in the jobs, and our government sucks.
    Jun 7 06:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence Mounts That Deflation Is A Greater Risk Than Inflation [View article]
    I get a little confused when deflation is discussed. Deflation is bad but deflation of our inflation would be good wouldnt it? Hear me out before all you economic experts lash out at me at not understanding how we need inflation to grow, because I do but enough Bernanke is enough.

    We are at a point where middle class income is roughly 50,000 per year. With just one kid, a mortgage at less than the average % of income, 2 modest vehicle payments, and your normal bills...cable internet utilities gas groceries garbage etc...What is left? You are strapped leaving any extras to end up on credit cards-car repairs, time off work for illness injury etc, broken furnace...the list goes on.
    So how do we need inflation right now versus the deflation of inflation?
    We have inflation on things we consume and deflation on things we own. How is that beneficial in anyway? Yes I understand that true deflation is bad, but is deflation of the inflation really all that bad?

    Since the middle class is "supposed" to be the foundation for this country's success, you would think they could live comfortable by going to work everyday, saving not wasting, and come out ok.
    While this may come back to "corporate greed" which does have a big part in it, things are priced rediculous to even get by these days on middle class income.
    New truck 37,000 dollars. 1994 same make and model was 19,000
    ok while people will then come and say thats the unions fault for driving up wages, they need those wages to live comfortable because of every other hiked price so thats a tie. Thats almost 100% inflation on real time things yet wages have not increased worth a damn to make that up. trucks, tv's, services, all of these things have been highly inflationary yet wages have not had a real increase for years.
    I am a firm beleiver in you get what you get if you dont like it better yourself and make more money....Thats fine for the individual, but as a whole, the u.s. economy needs to be able to afford these things and if prices increase yet middle class wages do not, and the middle class is/was the majority, there needs to be a different distribution of the profits. Not an Obama "spread the wealth" by any means but if you dont give the people driving the economy the tools or funds to buy what the guys at the top are selling, the country will never succeed. Ill take some deflation after 15 years of Bernanke because the spread of my paycheck to what it can buy is disgusting. All of my investing and trading aside, (because theres always the risk of losing it and can not count on it as a weekly check)

    So while I do have 2 incomes, my job and the market, and have taken steps to better my life financially, me and my wifes normal incomes beat most as a majority to the country, by that I do not mean I make millions but more than a high percent of the nation....If you look it up it doesnt take much...Yet we dont spend a dime on anything extra, have our vehicles paid off and have no kids.... If I figure in the cost of a kid including daycare and 2 vehicle payments(which we dont have) we are strapped.

    I live the leanest and most boring possible lifestyle you could imagine and I just dont see hoe inflation will help me
    Jun 6 11:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Count Draghi: 10 Points [View article]
    Not being bailed out (YET) You can bet all of these countries facing similar issues do not have all of their cards on the table right now.

    Al though recent bank runs have stirred up the issue of banks not having enough capital to pay their creditors, a general bank run has been on in the EU to Germany for a few years now. Nothing they have done in the last few years has stopped it and in fact has sped it up. It is a combination of scared citizens fleeing their monies to Germany and mattresses, and the economic structural issues that involve high unemployment leading to less money being made to be put in these banks. The money can't be deposited if it isnt being made. So even if they stopped taking money out of the banks there won't be enough money coming into them from savings after employment to keep all of the irresponsible banks solvent. Some may take longer than other of course...

    The EU is in, or headed toward, (depending on which country), another recession/depression there, so without any kind of miracle that snaps this global economy back into shape in a hurry, any bailout of esm, ela, esfs or any other mixture of letters that stand for broke, the situation will continue to deteriorate. When they decide to bail out or fund in any way the banks without fixing the issues at hand they will only increase debt to gdp ratios, but still be in the same situation.

    Al though Merkel taking a stand here and saying nein nein nein, could hurt Germany in many ways down the road, especially if the weaker countries leave the Euro and magically become powerhouse exporters because of their newfound devalued currency, she makes a lot of good points in the current time that Europe has done nothing to change its policies or to try and resolve the issues causing the problems instead of kicking the can down the road. While the focus may be on insolvent banks and irresponsible leaders, the global economy is still moving towards a contraction and a bailout without change is pointless.
    Jun 6 10:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • May Employment Report Preview [View article]
    hahaha dignity?
    Jun 6 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "If it comes to worst, before the eurozone collapses, everything will be done to bail (it) out," says former Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann, adding he has "no doubt" the German people would support it. "Destruction is much more expensive than further construction."  [View news story]
    They will go around Germany if they want to attempt to fix this without restructuring and sticking to austerity. Merkel is not budging. Under the circumstances of how these countries got where they are I wouldn't either. They share a currency because at one point they shared a goal of democracy and prosperity. Now after their system has been battered with irresponsibility of many of the countries they all want handouts and no longer share the same policies. Same currency, different problems, different policies and leaders, the end of the euro will happen someday.

    I cant imagine how bad things would be if we had 17 different presidents trying to run our country.
    Jun 4 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G-7 finance minsters and central bank governors have a conference call set for Tuesday to discuss "the situation in Europe," says Canadian finmin Jim Flaherty. The G-20 has a summit scheduled for next week.  [View news story]
    BREAKING! :a conference call they have regularly and will not report openly on.
    Jun 4 10:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • May Employment Report Preview [View article]
    With all of the fed pmi's this month at huge misses theres no reason to think there is any kind of good coming on Friday. Many of the jobs have been pulled forward for seasonality and most companies have guided down for the quarter. Well at least most manufacturing did. So I see no reason for any turnaround in the jobs numbers. If all of our economic numbers have been slowing for 8 weeks or more now give or take a couple decent reports out of the 100, companies don't have a catalyst to hire from lack of demand in the economy and the questions some companies may have for their future towards the healthcare issue in the supreme court this month. It's easier to make current employees work overtime than to hire and pay for training in times of uncertainty when you aren't sure if they will be needed in the near term. Ill go with trimtabs.
    May 31 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "I believe further monetary policy accommodation is both appropriate and necessary,"  says Boston Fed President Rosengren. Not a voter on the FOMC, Rosengren has been a consistent dovish voice, but his remarks are somewhat significant as key dove Bill Dudley (and even the Chairman) has recently backed off calling for more stimulus.  [View news story]
    If he doesnt have a vote, he's just another person with an opinion. Why is this significant? It's not. I think they are finally realizing qe won't help the actual issues we need resolved. There's enough flight to "safety". (bonds) for now that they don't need to manufacture demand for them. In the past few meetings the fed, mainly Bernanke, has said time and time again that he doesn't see how another round of QE will benefit, and that they have done what they could.

    Every meeting the wordsmiths get back to work as detectives trying to decipher every accent of every word. This market is sad. Meanwhile we have had 7-8 straight weeks of weak and missed economic numbers in the U.S. with no volume or inflows to speak of, while there is a QE already in place.

    QE will not fix the numbers coming out nor will it spur loan demand so even if it does happen it will be short lived like LTRO over in Europes 17 circles of hell.

    You have Obamacare and it's uncertainties, possible triple dividend taxes, the election, bush/obama tax cuts falling off, the fiscal cliff in a lame duck govt, and a euro crisis- QE will be lost in the mass of garbage we will be going through in the next half year.
    May 30 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF head Lagarde tells The Guardian her agency has no intention of easing the terms of Greece's bailout package. Greeks need to help themselves by paying their taxes, she says, adding she has more sympathy for poor African children than Greek ones - interesting sentiments from one who was part of the regime that oversaw hundreds of billions transferred to financial institutions in the aftermath of the GFC.  [View news story]
    Depends on what your time frame is for sitting in bonds. Getting out of the market at 1420 and seeing down the road to all of these issues we face and the world face and sitting in bonds for a better entry, good idea. Dividends dont make up for a 20% decline, or even the decline we have had as of this month, and the majority of people will not be able to pick the stocks or to be lucky enough to be in the stocks that don't get hit on a downturn. As far as a long term idea it is obviously not smart as you are technically losing money thru inflation. But losing money thru inflation is better than losing it all if you dont know what the hell you are doing. I always like when people compare the 10 yr with how many stocks give more of a dividend in the s&p. They dont ever seem to mention the fact you can lose your investment making your extra special dividend, yield less money in your pocket after you take a huge haircut on your stock for staying in at the highs.
    May 30 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF head Lagarde tells The Guardian her agency has no intention of easing the terms of Greece's bailout package. Greeks need to help themselves by paying their taxes, she says, adding she has more sympathy for poor African children than Greek ones - interesting sentiments from one who was part of the regime that oversaw hundreds of billions transferred to financial institutions in the aftermath of the GFC.  [View news story]
    You missed the point of all the hidden taxes we pay when we buy something. That number is bogus of reality. Thats why people think we can pay more taxes, because of skewed numbers like that. Kind of like how Obama has ONLY increased spending under his administration by 1.9% as compared to all other presidents around 7%.....but it.s 1.9 percent compounded on top of all of the other presidents huge spending and is actually more. WE pay way too many taxes thru and thru the entire system of a product from inception to delivery. Period
    May 28 02:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF head Lagarde tells The Guardian her agency has no intention of easing the terms of Greece's bailout package. Greeks need to help themselves by paying their taxes, she says, adding she has more sympathy for poor African children than Greek ones - interesting sentiments from one who was part of the regime that oversaw hundreds of billions transferred to financial institutions in the aftermath of the GFC.  [View news story]
    Greece defalted in March
    May 26 11:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF head Lagarde tells The Guardian her agency has no intention of easing the terms of Greece's bailout package. Greeks need to help themselves by paying their taxes, she says, adding she has more sympathy for poor African children than Greek ones - interesting sentiments from one who was part of the regime that oversaw hundreds of billions transferred to financial institutions in the aftermath of the GFC.  [View news story]
    58 years of tax cuts and the federal debt to match? Yeah that's how we got in our situation. This is why financial advisors have careers.

    Hey Terry after you figure out how much of your money you get to keep after

    Federal tax
    State tax
    Property tax
    Gas tax
    Sales tax
    Corporate tax
    Cigarrette tax (if appliccable)
    and coming soon to a theater near you- consumption tax

    Explain to me how we aren't overtaxed through the system over and over and over. Tax cuts are cuts from overtaxing
    May 26 01:22 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Greece Will Drag Down Europe And Refuse To Leave [View article]
    Greece will not leave and they can not be kicked out? That "framework", as you call it is exactly why the EU is ugly. That comes out to - "I will spend as much as I want and you will keep giving me money and there isnt a damn thing you can do about it." If that is the framework that is in place then that explains the issues.

    The U.S. are not the ones that brought up Greece leaving the Euro so this would not be a discussion if Greece would not leave voluntarily or couldnt be kicked out.
    May 26 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checking In On How Insiders Have Been Trading Financial Stocks [View article]
    I cant figure out why anyone would be investing in any investment banks right now. Al though Jp Morgan made a huge mistake, not the 2 billion dollar loss, but the actual trade and the risk reward that was involved, they only lost 2 billion. For that size of company it really isnt a big loss. That being said, JPM took a huge hit before the press even knew how dumb the bet truly was. if any other investment banks are found to have huge losses, whether it hurts the company or not, their shares will pay dearly. In most instances the individual investor will not know until it's too late, so why bother with it. JPM took a significant hit BEFORE all of the facts were out of the "Whale", so why risk your capital when everyone knows investment banks win and lose just like individuals but their losses (and profits) are in a much larger scale. The media will drive it down peoples throats until you are forced to puke up the stock. With JPM in the spotlight many other banks will be in the spotlight and dug deeper into. Afterall, where is the short term upside to these banks anyway? With the global issues and our own fiscal and economic issues, banks are the last thing I would want to be in, especially an investment bank that no one has any idea of where there money and derivatives are at all times. So why not sit out the banks given this market slide and global financial crisis is not showing upside over the next 6-8 months (at least)
    May 26 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Greece Will Drag Down Europe And Refuse To Leave [View article]
    They rallied because of rumors not because the countries are fixed. Are you kidding? People rally on bailouts and bailouts will not fix the problem. The last LTRO lasted how long? Europe hasnt even begun to deal with its troubles OPEN YOUR EYES. German bunds are the safe haven over there so of course they go up. Did you post the greek bond numbers? Things dont go down or up in straight lines.

    Monti was on Itilian tv preaching eurobonds and how Merkel will give in for the better good of Europe. Eurobonds meaning Germany will agree to taking on all of these countries debts through higher yields on their own debt. He is pumping the situation and trying to calm the unrest that is mounting, contagion even. One thing people forget is that all of the idiots running the countries in Europe that are in the most trouble dont have a say in Eurobonds getting passed. EUROBONDS ARE NOT A VOTING SITUATION. it is not up to Portugal Italy Ireland Greece or Spain where Germany and other better off countries put their money. Monti was trying to put his country at ease from this disaster hence Itilian yields dropping.
    May 26 12:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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