Go figure

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    • Mon May 19th 22:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Credit Card Time Bomb Is Ticking
      For many years I have quoted the phrase, figures lie and liars figure. Funny thing about numbers, usually you can make them say whatever you want.

      I am not of the belief that credit is not a serious issue in this country. I do believe that doom and gloom attracts more attention.

      Consider that through the last two significant up cycles, 1995-2000 and 2003-2007, outstanding consumer credit (federalreserve.gov) has spiked from a few percent a year increase to 10% or 15% in years following negative market returns (yahoo ^GSPC historical). Could there be a correlation between choosing to put your money to work versus paying off or paying down debt?

      There are many people in this country that can not handle money, but there is also a large percentage that can, and with significant dollars. I for one usually do not pass up "12 month same as cash" or 2.99% until paid in full offers. 2004 saw an increase in consumer debt jump 10.92% from the previous year of 5.64% and the S&P returned 32.78% from March 2003 to March 2004. Sounds like smart money to me.
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    • Sun Feb 17th 11:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Forget the Obituaries - The U.S. Economy is Alive and Well
      Will, in checking out your chart, I guess I don't see the correlation. From October 2005 (a high point on your chart) to the end of 2006 (closer to the bottom on the chart) the S&P gained 22%. Considering your current chart is again near the high, that would indicate another healthy run is in store.

      I guess that's why there is not any one chart that tell the story.
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    • Sun Feb 17th 11:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Forget the Obituaries - The U.S. Economy is Alive and Well
      Since financials make up such a large percentage of the S&P, they can and probably will have a negative overall effect on the index average. That's the best reason I can think of for not investing in the S&P index whether a fund or ETF.

      Mark needs to go down the hall and talk to Sam Kirtley who is forecasting a "severe recession". Not that that can not happen, but from the chart Mark shows above, many more things are going to have to get worse before it happens. I guess that is what makes the market what it is. Someone wants to buy what you are selling.
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    • Sun Feb 10th 10:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Merrill Lynch Sentiment Indicators Still Looking for a Bottom
      It should be the responsibility of all reporting to be fair and balanced. To be critical of the Merill thoughts that if we are not at a bottom they shouldn't be recommending that we buy any stocks is not fair. As a good thing, within large firms such as Merrill, there is a diverse culture and difference of opinions. I expect and want them to have differing opinions. It allows us to see and think of things we might not normally see when listening to the overwhelming negative media.

      Also, every study will show that the overwhelming majority of investors do not do a good job at market timing. Only a very small percentage of investors will be lucky enough to benefit from jumping into and out of the market at exactly the right time and would be much better off in a good allocation and staying the course.

      As for your double short index funds, not only do you have to be right, you have to be double right!
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