Go figure

Forget the Obituaries - The U.S. Economy is Alive and Well

Will, in checking out your chart, I guess I don't see the correlation. From October 2005 (a high point on your chart) to the end of 2006 (closer to the bottom on the chart) the S&P gained 22%. Considering your current chart is again near the high, that would indicate another healthy run is in store.

I guess that's why there is not any one chart that tell the story.

Forget the Obituaries - The U.S. Economy is Alive and Well

Since financials make up such a large percentage of the S&P, they can and probably will have a negative overall effect on the index average. That's the best reason I can think of for not investing in the S&P index whether a fund or ETF.

Mark needs to go down the hall and talk to Sam Kirtley who is forecasting a "severe recession". Not that that can not happen, but from the chart Mark shows above, many more things are going to have to get worse before it happens. I guess that is what makes the market what it is. Someone wants to buy what you are selling.

Merrill Lynch Sentiment Indicators Still Looking for a Bottom

It should be the responsibility of all reporting to be fair and balanced. To be critical of the Merill thoughts that if we are not at a bottom they shouldn't be recommending that we buy any stocks is not fair. As a good thing, within large firms such as Merrill, there is a diverse culture and difference of opinions. I expect and want them to have differing opinions. It allows us to see and think of things we might not normally see when listening to the overwhelming negative media.

Also, every study will show that the overwhelming majority of investors do not do a good job at market timing. Only a very small percentage of investors will be lucky enough to benefit from jumping into and out of the market at exactly the right time and would be much better off in a good allocation and staying the course.

As for your double short index funds, not only do you have to be right, you have to be double right!