J. Fredrickson

CFOs: Recession Has Already Started

THIS IS VERY BULLSHI!

The Erroneous Credence of the Efficient Market

The efficient market theory is dead. I never believed it in the first place, but my professors seemed to cling to it as if it allowed them to live. Why? My guess is that it allowed their theories and papers to be published. It allowed the equations to work and be less complicated. Imagine how hard it would be if they had to factor in market inefficiencies. No "pure" number would come out. It would most likely have to be a range. Nobody really likes ranges in math or science. It is much better to just have one "right" answer not 20. Brandon has a great point here and I think that the younger investors and economists need to realize that the efficient market theory is simply a method for creating a constant factor in equations and theories, not a theory that is reality based.

The Latest Luck of Bill Gross

Let us not forget, he basically blackmailed them into the bailout of FNM and FRE after he had built a huge position, by saying that "Me and my friends will not buy anymore of the paper," and like that they were gone.

The Latest Luck of Bill Gross

I swear that Gross just tells them what to do after he gets his positions ready. He is a very smart guy, but his ability to prognosticate what the government will do next seems to be too good.

History Suggests the Financial Bottom May Be Near

Quoting Cramer? Calling bottom. Good Luck.

My name is also Jay Fredrickson

Potash Corp. Update: Time To Buy?

Don't buy TNH. Look up how they structure that. There is a reason why it has declined from $171. Anyone who tells you it has a low pe and great dividend doesn't have a clue. Sorry John.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Larry Kudlow is that you? I thought you were on vacation? Must be bored and ghost writing as "Gabe Borenstein" on Seeking Alpha's Fry Guy Board. I respect different opinions, but for some reason I find yours repulsive, as in, it sounds like the government spin put upon the American people to make them believe that everything is "fine", "okay" or "alright." When this fantasy ends and the reality becomes more apparent everyone can start making more informed decisions, but due to government "shenanigans" and a fear of "truthiness" this may take longer then anyone expects. I agree with David, "good LUCK to you."

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I want whatever Wall Street is having! There is something in the water out there. LSD?, PCP?, Ludes? Any other guesses?

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Takes some You know Whats....Big Brace Balls... To Fade the EWZ, i.e. go against the trend.

www.investopedia.com/t...

Complex Simplicity: A Better Portfolio of ETFs

I often find that most people( i.e. those not involved in the financial world) construct portfolios similar to the one above. The thought process I will assume goes something like this, "if I have exposure to just about everything I will not be hurt bad if I am wrong,and have a little skin in the game if an area gets hot, i.e. I will be diversified." It reminds me of putting a little money on every number on the roulette table knowing that you will at least win something.

Most schools (mine included) teach us that diversification is the answer to doing well in the market and that the markets are efficient. I have read the research/books on the topic as well as experienced quite a few years trading and think that it cannot be further from the truth. The reason behind the decision to teach diversification in our institutions has to do with being able to get theories published and needing certain aspects of the research to be constant. Enter efficient market, duh, duh, duh, problem solved, thanks Malkiel, high five (slap!).

But I feel that this strategy leads to mediocre returns. Of course the allocation will very based on many factors, but I feel that it is important for managers and individuals to understand what is happening or going to happen and set-up a strategy to take advantage of the opportunities out there. These do not really provide that incentive. I think that these types of portfolios are lazy, bloated and often times full of "evergreen income" for those lucky managers that get the naive client.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Always look forward to your posts.

Inflation Protection Ideas

The problem with TIPS is the government provided inflation data has been manipulated to the point where it will always underestimate true inflation. So, if true inflation is at 8% and the government says it is at 3%, the TIPS really don't provide protection from the real inflation, the government doesn't have to pay out as much because of the bias number and the general public believes that inflation is tame while seeing their earnings taxed a second time. I am cautious of TIPS for this reason.

Volatility Spike, Parts III and IV

There were spikes above 1.5 from 2000 to 2003, 6 or so on the chart, all the way down. Were each one of these buying opportunities?

I respect the guy, but I'm not really on the same page when it comes to THIS buying opportunity.

Providing Aid to the Disabled

Why would anyone believe that they can see the end if they didn't even know when it started? Why would I believe an incompetent company that can't seem to find the resolve to downgrade bonds based on there own rating criteria? Maybe if Fitch said it, I would take it a little more seriously, but come on, S+P with credibility, that went out a longtime ago.

And to Barney Frank, that is just what we need, the U.S. government as a landlord...I'm sure the bureaucracy surrounding that won't be a problem.. I know that we need to save all our poor buddies in the financial industry..Thanks Barney I know my kids will appreciate that, and their kids, and probably their kids as we continue to print money and watch it float into the abyss.

Dissecting MBIA's Letter to Owners

Thank you for the time you spent preparing this article.