dshort

John Hussman: The Market Is Not in Uncharted Territory

If today's market rolls over into another Great Depression (which I doubt), I a more long-term strategy is excellent for portfolio risk management. I follow a 10-month moving average timing signal on the monthly close. Here's a daily chart of the Dow from October 1928 to January 1935:

dshort.com/charts/Dow-...

Here's a monthly chart over the same timeframe with some 10MA signals:

dshort.com/charts/Dow-...

This monthly MA strategy is not suitable for long-term sideways markets (and it certainly won't be of interest to a mutual fund manager). But it has worked reasonably well since the mid 1990s. It would have saved a lot of pain in 1929-1932, and it would have moved your to fixed income in November of last year.