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bzl14

bzl14
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  • Join Them If You Can't Beat Them: Stop Picking Individual Stocks And Start Living An Easier Life [View article]
    Not only 95% of the individual investors can not beat S&P, last year 84% of the money managers didn't beat it as well. After 30+ years of investing, here is what I have been doing for the past 2 years. I check the performance of every stock 12 months after its purchase, if it has beaten the market, I keep it. If on the hand, it has not, I sell it and put the proceeds in SPY/VOO. This way: 1- I keep my winners and get rid of my losers, and, 2- I continue to pick stocks which I believe will do well and thus, I am still involved. I should add that when it comes to sell side, irrespective of length of the time I have had an issue, if stock loses 10% I sell it. This has been a very good strategy for me. My performance has been above S&P and I am spending less and less time searching for the next BIG winner. My SPY/VOO holding has also been growing...Thank you for a nice article and all the best, BZL 14
    Jan 10, 2015. 09:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Dividend Dogs Declare Vast November Gains [View article]
    Thanks for prompt response. bzl14
    Nov 24, 2014. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Dividend Dogs Declare Vast November Gains [View article]
    Fred,
    Great articles. I am a long time follower and beneficiary of your articles. Thank you for sharing your research. I was wondering if you also do the "end of the year Dog" (so called "free lunch") stocks to buy and hold just for a few months, i.e. end of Nov- mid March? Much obliged. bzl14
    Nov 20, 2014. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Index Killed Active Management; Stock Picking Is Dead. Long Live Stock Picking! [View article]
    Indexes are for "average inverters." And, it looks like "average inverters" have been beating 85% of the Pros! If most people check their portfolio's performance, they will wish they were also "average inverters."! JMT
    Nov 7, 2014. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If AK Steel Was A Strong Buy At $9 Then It's An Even Stronger Buy At $7.50 - Plus A Primer On Geo-Politics, Oil And Behavioral Finance [View article]
    GloMac'
    Great response. Unfortunately, we Americans (mostly) either have short memory or intentionally ignore the fact that Iran was one of our closest allies before 1979 Iranian Revolution. Further, Iran offered to resolve all of its difference with U.S. in 2003 at very favorable terms to U.S. but was rejected...Finally, nearly all of the polls taken in Iran during the past 20 years consistently show that Iranians love the West and, given an opportunity, will align themselves with the West. We are (and they are) missing a great opportunity to get unlimited supply of oil and natural gas for the West and pull the Russian bear's teeth out for good and send her to her final retirement... All the best, bzl14
    Oct 7, 2014. 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If AK Steel Was A Strong Buy At $9 Then It's An Even Stronger Buy At $7.50 - Plus A Primer On Geo-Politics, Oil And Behavioral Finance [View article]
    Great article. I particularly like your analysis of the possibility of substituting Persian gas to the Russian gas by the Europeans. If it happens (and that is a big if) Turkey will be most supporting. They will become major toll collectors. And Russia will, not only lose leverage, it will lose their most important market and thus income. They will go into recession and Mr. Putin will be gone in a very short time. Wouldn't that be a shame;). Let us hope talks between the 5+1 with Iran really succeed. However, I am not as optimistic as you are, but then, I hope your prediction comes true. Thanks again for your comprehensive analysis and all the best. Bzl14
    Oct 5, 2014. 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Permian Mergers And Acquisitions Activity Accelerating [View article]
    Thanks for your prompt reply. bzl14
    Sep 29, 2014. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Permian Mergers And Acquisitions Activity Accelerating [View article]
    Bret;
    Your articles are market movers. Nearly every article you have recently written has had a positive affect on the stock price the next day! Do you have a service that alerts the subscribers before the articles are published? Long time follower and enriched. Thank you for sharing your analysis. bzl14
    Sep 29, 2014. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees, The S&P 500 And Cash Are All You Need [View article]
    Fishing and farming is a bit different than investing! May be you are better at it than 85% of the hedge fund managers and Warren Buffet...
    Sep 26, 2014. 10:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees, The S&P 500 And Cash Are All You Need [View article]
    Dale very nice article.
    In support of your advise regarding investing in S&P, after over 40 years of investing in the market, here is my take. It is well documented fact that ~ 85 % of the money managers do not beat S&P. having said that, most people believe that they can do better. However, at the end of the year, most (if they check their performance) realize that they did not do better than Market! But unfortunately, they continue doing the same thing over again. So to correct this misdirection, here is what I suggest and what I have been doing:
    At the end of every month I check my portfolio and compare each issues' return that I have held for 1 year, against the S&P. If the issue (be it stock or ETF) has beaten the S&P, I keep it, if it has not, then I either sell the entire issue and put the proceeds on SPY or VOO. On the alternative, if I am still hopeful that the issue will do better next year, I sell half of my holding on the issue and put the proceeds ,again, on SPY, VOO or another Index ETF with a good record of beating S&P during the last 1,3 and 5 years. This strategy is giving me the opportunity to see how my own picks do, at the same time, keep up (or not fall too far behind) the market. Frankly, I have come to conclusion that it is very difficult to consistently beat the market. And if the majority of the pros can not do it, my insistence on trying it over and over again is nothing but doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result! But, since we are all humans and must try our hands, my strategy, at least, gives my the opportunity to do both. All the best, BZL14
    Sep 25, 2014. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends And Quality Come Together In This ETF [View article]
    Tom,
    Thank you for your wonderful and money making suggestions. I started accumulating QDYN as of last year since you mentioned in one of your articles. It has been GREAT! Frankly, I have made more money following some of your suggestions than anyone else on SA. Keep up the great work and all the best. Bzl14
    Sep 12, 2014. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Joel Greenblatt's Forgotten Original Magic Formula [View article]
    Evan;
    No there is no confusion. your article is about Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula. Further, you have not mentioned a single stock. I assume some of them are Penney stocks. All you are claiming is that I have got the names! Also, it would have looked a bit more genuine had you at least named Joel Greenblatt's web page in the article (as mentioned in my above email) so the readers can take a look at it. Finally, I see no comment about AAII's portfolio of Joel Greenblatt's stock screen. All in all, just like many people who have commented here, for me, without a verified proof, claims of such enormous returns, are just sales pitch. All the best. Bzl14
    Aug 5, 2014. 08:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Joel Greenblatt's Forgotten Original Magic Formula [View article]
    Thank you for the informative article. To this end:
    1- I tried to follow Greenblatt’s Magic Formula in the past but, frankly, it is very time consuming and, at least, I did not have that good of a luck. Nevertheless, he is a great investor and has certainly made a lot of money for himself and his clients. BTW, here is his website where you can go and sign up for free and then look and follow his picks: http://bit.ly/1pAWsRc
    You can actually pick the size of the companies and the number of stocks.
    2- I believe Mr. Greenblatt cooperates with a brokerage firm which follows his formula in a mutual fund.
    3- AAII also has a portfolio which follows Joel Greenblatt's Magic formula, as described on his book. However, it has not done that well during the past 1,3,5 and 10 years. Here is AAII’s web page- which is subscription based (very inexpensive) but good site where you can compare many strategies: http://bit.ly/Xg0hxd
    4- From stated returns for [”Over the past 3 1/2 years my portfolio is up 140%”] you obviously have done very well by, maybe, twitching the formula a bit- which is great! Congraduations. However, it seems to me you would like to include a lot of foreign stocks in your portfolio. For me, foreign stocks are very risky as one does not know what is going to happen in the respective country— e.g. Russia, Egypt…
    5- Finally, with all due respect, I am from Missouri and must see the independently verified returns. Otherwise, there are many people who make claims of great returns just to sell newsletter…
    Certainly your stated returns are amazing and, if verified, the hedge funds would love to have your services—so do I.
    Thanks again for the article and all the best. BZL14
    Aug 5, 2014. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Use The CAPE Ratio To Double The Return Of The S&P 500 [View article]
    Paul,
    Thanks for the info. Much obliged. bzl14
    Aug 4, 2014. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Use The CAPE Ratio To Double The Return Of The S&P 500 [View article]
    Beside RPV what other ETF(s) follow this strategy--if any? Thanks in advance, bzl14
    Aug 2, 2014. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
137 Comments
75 Likes