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Jaimi Goodfriend
5 Comments
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Tremaine, you raise a great point...good companies do not always make for good stocks. I do have separate thoughts about that and...great idea to publish another article! Coming soon...
...To your point, well taken. We must look at fundamental shifts in macro environments to anticipate fundamental changes in specific companies. We can't just wait for things to happen to firms in real-time in order to act.
I'm a Buyer in This Selloff
Excellent questions...
1. I view infrastructure demand as a separate, global, secular story, with ample global funding to support healthy backlogs. I believe that many expectations are based on a shorter time horizon than what these particular industries will actually have. That's why I believe certain securities are undervalued: the cycle will last longer than people think (and this will prove out over time).
2. Absolutely agree...the mortgage crisis is trickling down the U.S. landscape and into other global markets. One of the assumptions I make in my case on basic materials companies is the end demand is dependent more on end markets experiencing secular growth, away from the usual cyclical demand we see in other industries. Of course one day these industries will fall back into a regular cycle like the others...but I believe that day hasn't happened yet.
In the case of titanium, there is a secular shift occuring in the manufacturing of some capital goods. Materials such as titanium and carbon fiber are replacing metals that are heavier and have less strength. For example, titanium and other composite materials are replacing steel and aluminum parts on aircraft. Similar substitutions are occuring in tubing.
Hope to hear from you again!