Enes K.

What the SEC Really Accomplished with Its New 'Short-Sell' Rule

CAT well-managed? That is a new one. It is not just short selling which they are trying to stop, it is also the false rumor spreading. And that's what makes bank runs. If one dumb Senator's sentence can cause that, what else can happen?

Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It

I agree with carbonates. Natural gas should be made into a transportation fuel. It is much easier to handle and most of the country already has the infrastructure setup (for the most part). after all, filling your gas tank at home is better than hunting down the best gasoline deal in town. convenience factor is huge. as an engineer, i think regular gasoline is a pretty crappy motor fuel with many limiting factors and design and regulatory challenges.

my two cents, swap natural gas and gasoline. use gasoline for heating purposes and electricity and use natural gas as a motor fuel :)
...btw i know that idea sounds crazy

Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It

oh quick correction

NOT THAT big of an ethanol lover

whoops

Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It

actually, i'm a big ethanol lover. i just prefer honesty in business and government. the manipulation is incredible. ethanol has some nice properties as a fuel, but its transportation limits its use on a national scale (for now). do i like the national mandate on ethanol? no. do i mind and hate ethanol? no. it has a place especially in the midwest. it is a great octane booster. does ethanol make sense at these prices? yes. are the blenders getting some extra cash that they do not need right now? yes.

its impact on food prices is indirect. and that is the main problem. there is sooo much information that people do not know what to do with or believe. for example, cattle need starch, but the current movement is into lean muscle cattle ("healthy" alternative). dairy operations also care very little about starch and concentrate on getting protein and hormones to their milking cows. so how do you price corn? how do you quantify its impact on the price of rice which is a people only food? does corn impact rice? can the situation in india be explained using the same logic (export of rice is practically eliminated)?

the ag lobbies represent ag business interest and farmers, especially medium and small, are left out of the loop. most of the corn increase has benefited the suppliers. as proof, we need to look at fertilizer, machinery, and seed companies and the prices they charge. they are all doing GREAT.

the rest were bought out. the oil companies and their lobbies got a slice of the pie with the blender credit (which at current relative levels does not make sense). farmers are left in the middle and do not like what is going on. will they take higher corn prices? yes, but only to a certain extent. the input prices have gone to such levels that they are starting to switch to soybeans.

i think the increase in corn prices is more related to the dollar and the world increase in GDP. do we expect people to always eat rice and beans while the developed world eats $0.99 cheeseburgers at McDonald's? i think not. the dollar has lost a large portion of its value while the rest of the world has gotten richer off of commodities, exports, and a horrible budget deficit and management during the bush administration (deficit = imports for the US). now some of these "other" people are able to afford eating more and better food. the highest demand increase for meat products has come from countries that have seen large increases in income, dollar holdings, and rise of a middle class. this would include china, india, brazil, middle east, and russia. we can't use one logic for oil and other commodities and claim that corn prices are strictly affected by ethanol and imply that their increase is controlled by that. all of a sudden the global economy and the dollar have nothing to do with these commodity prices?

take care of the dollar, and it will take care of you. but that won't happen for now (yay bank lobbies).

PS
are the poor going to suffer? they always do during inflationary times. this is no different, but the rich get richer and fatter in those countries. and that is not going to change either (russia to me is still a communist country; as is india; the middle east is truly special; brazil has a boat load of case studies on income inequality).

Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It

Many of you should consider the facts of ethanol besides throwing around opinions. Corn used in ethanol is not sweet corn. It is field corn, which cannot be eaten by people. It is fed to cattle. Most of the feed value can be recovered and one of the by-product of ethanol is distiller's feed. This contains 90% of the protein that corn originally had.

The energy figure paulk8756 is refering to is one that is almost 20 years old and often cited. Energy use has been reduced to 0.74 million BTUs of fossil fuels for every 1 million BTUs of ethanol. Making gasoline actually requires more. 1.23 million BTUs are required for 1 million BTUs of gasoline. This is due to the heating needs of a refinary which usually needs to operate at about 600C (separation) depending on the crude. sweet crude can yield other usable fuels and products that lower the energy impact.

Water usage is also often cited at 7 gallong per gallon of ethanol. This number is now between 3-4 gallons of water. Crude is pumped using water injection.

The "inefficiency" of cars using ethanol is not fuel's fault. although ethanol has a lower heating value, it is also a higher octane fuel. if an engine is operated at higher pressure, it will operate more efficiently and the result will be higher gas milage (compression system required - turbo or supercharger). this effect is very similar to diesel fuel.

I agree with many of you that ethanol is not an answer, but it is a part of the solution. one part that is not is "just pump more". this cramer-like policy will get us nowhere. the united states needs a clear energy policy and a view for the future. the government needs to look through the system currently in place and ease certain limitations and tariffs.

we also MUST give credit where credit is due. the ethanol credit goes to blenders. the producers and people developing the technology receive a trickle down effect at best. ethanol has a place in this world and is the best octane booster we have (besides lead). this is a great injustice and an incredible raid by the inegrated oil giants. i applaude them.

Aircastle In Fine Shape; Fears Appear Unfounded

I would disagree with few of those arguments. Before Aircastle and its likes made their IPOs, they were already in the market. They were leasing airplanes. They did not, all of a sudden, increase the number of airplanes available. All of these entities were already operating as part of a group or conglomerate.

The only people who would be able to increase the supply are those at Boeing and Airbus, and they are not able to do so.

Aircastle's age is also an issue that is relatively minor. I believe their average age is about 7 or 8 years. That number for United is about 12 with all of the cuts that have taken place. The average age of the world supply is between 15-20 years depending on the region and type of airplane. Age talk also needs to include engines and wing adjustments, which Aircastle, unlike United Airlines and others, have not invested in.

Anybody can write an insurance policy, but not everyone can build an airplane (licensed and able to operate in the modern world). Airplane supply is growing along with the population rate, but it is not keeping up with the world GDP growth rate. So, the more people are able to afford airplane tickets, the faster the demand grows. I believe the long term growth is about 6-7%.

Plane Lessors Are Headed to the Desert

One other thing to keep in mind is that airlines prefer the flexibility of contracts. A buying contract may be for structured for a decade or even longer. If one leases an aircraft, which can be done for as short as a year, the airline could diminish its risk on missing out on technology coming out or wait until an aircraft has proven worthy. Do not like the results of the aircraft you leased? Don't renew. Get another one. Short term contracts will not get defaulted on (usually). Most aircraft leasors require at least a month's (and up to three) worth of lease payments to be paid down as deposit. As with GLS, they were able to get the deposit and a month's worth of lease (defaulted at the beginning of the month and had already paid for the next) for a new aircraft that should be able to go right back up.