Seeking Alpha

trader37

trader37
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View trader37's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Captain Of Amarin's Listless Ship Makes Ready For The Storm [View article]
    I am glad you found humor in my response because I am really you, messaging from the future. Too much caffeine is not good but you (I) already know that don't you (we) Go see your (my) cardiologist and ask for Vascepa. In 2045 it is sold like bubble gum, trust me I'm you from the future.

    Thanks for the reply and I am humbled by your compliment. I did not take affront to your response, in all seriousness, or for as long as I can be, I do not have a wife, never married. I have always said since I was young that if I ever get cheated on, I want it to be by the CEO of an EPA only fish pill company I owned shares in.
    My short story was sincere only enough to subtlety undermine the premise of your analysis and illustrate my point that correlation doesn't always imply causation. Specifically in the individual psychological profiles of the FDA panel members. Who really knows? That should have been filed under the "my crackpot theories on Amarin" section. The rest of your article was actually pretty fair and relevant.
    I do not comment on articles often, but I found that your sarcastic tone to your readers could not go unanswered.

    Stocks should be dispassionate investments, and by the amount of feedback you received for AMRN, it is clear that this is the exception to that rule. I appreciated your mentioning two things on Amarin which I have not heard of, one being Obamacare, and the next being the psychology of the FDA panel and big pharmaceutical companies.

    Points you did not address.

    1. The fact that Joe Z was COO of Reliant Pharmaceuticals which launched Lovaza. Having a CEO who has been through the ringer before is an advantage, and in the eyes of the FDA panel could also lend credence to the company seeing that he had a hand in the competitive drug (Lovaza).
    No one would admit to that thinking could occur in an unbiased FDA panel, but the possibility exists, if we get to speculate about individual psychological biases AGAINST Amarin then logic would follow we can speculate the bull case as well. (Since we are all learned doctors of investor psychology). From a fundamental standpoint that is a good thing, or at least never hurts.

    2. The sheer size of the anchor indication in relation to the current PPS. Something that could reach nearly 1/3 Americans is nothing to sneeze at. Notice how AF has been very quiet in his bashing.

    3. No mention of JELIS. No mention of REDUCE IT and the potential impact in 2014 to the company's future?

    4. In this case, the prospects of the underlying company are not reflected in the share price. This has been seen every time AMRN announced a new patent and the share price took a pounding. This leads me to believe the stock is manipulated, because anything biotech is going to be a slow (and yes, binary) investment. Shorts have a lot of firepower to hammer this down, we have seen that. The chart does not tell the whole story when you have a first in class drug that is getting more and more scripts filled by the month. Granted, cash burn is still a problem.

    5. The near term certainty of the Fed not tapering could lead big pharma sitting on loads of cash and expiring patents (http://bit.ly/HKauNO) to make a bid for AMRN. If adcom is successful, AMRN has much more leverage, it makes sense to partner sooner rather than later on a risk reward scale. Cheap money can only be a positive for M&A, no? Any thoughts on the possible government shutdown affecting this?

    6. The intellectual property of the company in this space. AZN acquired OMTH, that's a sign that fish oil is the way forward in cardiovascular health. Maybe it's not a short term trade, but for a long term investor, I see a company that has room to grow.

    7. Historically undermanaged companies are attractive M&A targets. I use the term undermanaged lightly, because silence could be indiciative of buyout discussions as well. There are too many unknown variables to make an informed analysis on management's silence.

    8. People everywhere are getting fatter, and we live in an overmedicated society. Obamacare only helps in my mind. If only Amarin donated to his campaign in 2012.

    And finally, my strongest point is that Steve Rosenman recommends buying it. I don't know much about him, but he's wearing a suit in his SA profile picture. He just looks like a trustworthy guy. I didn't realize it until you took it out of my subconscious mind and brought it to my attention with your analytical prowess.

    Have a good one pal
    Sep 20, 2013. 07:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Captain Of Amarin's Listless Ship Makes Ready For The Storm [View article]
    Well thought out article MW, while I didn't glean how Amarin may or may not be able to generate alpha I did learn some of the following.

    1. My wife left me because there were "subjective elements at play" and I as a human being was "subject to all manners of temptations, frailties and unconscious motivations." What she really meant when she asked me to clean the dishes was, let's have some alone time together. If only the circle representing my soul was conscious of the ego and my true self, I would have known this. If only you SA article had reached me sooner. I will fax a copy of your article to myself, but with a twist. The fax machine is not just an ordinary fax machine, oh yeah you guessed it MW. That's right. It's a time travel fax machine and I'm faxing it to the past = Disaster averted.

    2. Maybe I just have high trigylcerides and that's affecting my mood, and I just didn't want to do those dishes. Vascepa could have really benefited the relationship in hindsight. She deserves better. I don't think I'm gonna fax that article anymore.

    3. Vascepa is a first in class drug, while I appreciated the contrarian approach (really I do) it does not seem like psychoanalyzing individual behavior can lead to a meaningful analysis of a burgeoning company preparing to enter an untapped market ten times the size of the one it currently markets to.

    4. Judging by the reaction to your article, sounds like you are the craziest guy in the room. Goddamnit I'd take you to war any day. You remind me of a man not afraid to speak his mind, and that's what we need more of around here son. I want to point something out before I wrap this up.

    Your readers and fellow contributors are talking trash here in the comments section. Calling you crazy. Damnit don't deny it with your thinly veiled sarcastic responses MW. It's clearer than Vacepa's ascending week to week IMS script data.

    I just want you to know what that's really about. Because the "center of their true selves lie below the threshold of their current mind." These people are the crazy ones, and you should only follow the voices in your head. Not their's.

    In reality, all these naysayers from QTR to Rosenman, having absorbed the immensity of your analysis, are all sat in their ivory towers taking a hard introspective look at their egos and superegos in relation to their trading strategies.

    And deep down, MW, they're thinking "Damn, I'm glad this crazy bastard's on our side".

    Beam me up scotty!

    P.S. I faxed the article, your ideas were just crazy enough to work.
    Sep 20, 2013. 04:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy The Dip On McEwen Mining [View article]
    Great article Simit
    Mar 21, 2012. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading OTC And Penny Stocks [View article]
    ABOT Mining's Aztlan 8B's Final Portion Has Been Cleared for Access

    PR Newswire - Thursday, 15 Mar, 2012

    Thursday, 15 Mar, 2012 (PR Newswire) -- ABOT Mining's Aztlan 8B's Final Portion Has Been Cleared for Access

    SHERMAN OAKS, Calif., March 2, 2012 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- ABOT Mining announces that final portion of Aztlan 8B property has been cleared to allow Company's personnel to access geological anomalies that were identified during previous work phases. The Company looks forward to proceeding with a more thorough exploration program by engaging in mining geophysics activities and will conduct further surface assays that will be taken across the known epithermal deposits and field tested.

    About the CompanyABOT is a US based mining company engaged in discovering, acquiring, developing, producing, and marketing precious and semi-precious metal properties and is currently headquartered in Sherman Oaks, California. ABOT plans to create long term shareholder value by implementing an aggressive exploration program, making new precious metals discoveries and developing mining properties with long-life and low cost operation.

    Forward-Looking StatementAny statements made in this press release which are not historical facts contain certain forward-looking statements; as such term is defined in the Private Security Litigation Reform Act of 1995, concerning potential developments affecting the business, prospects, financial condition and other aspects of the company to which this release pertains. The actual results of the specific items described in this release, and the company's operations generally, may differ materially from what is projected in such forward-looking statements. Although such statements are based upon the best judgments of management of the company as of the date of this release, significant deviations in magnitude, timing and other factors may result from business risks and uncertainties including, without limitation, the company's dependence on third parties, general market and economic conditions, technical factors, the availability of outside capital, receipt of revenues and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of the company. The company disclaims any obligation to update information contained in any forward-looking statement. This press release shall not be deemed a general solicitation.

    Contact:Imran Firoz, PresidentABOT Mining Co.13920 Moorpark Street, Suite 201,Sherman Oaks, CA 91423E: info@abotmining.comT: +1 818.302.0100

    SOURCE ABOT Mining

    Copyright (C) 2012 PR Newswire. All rights reserved


    Copyright (C) 2012 PR Newswire. All rights reserved
    Mar 15, 2012. 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading OTC And Penny Stocks [View article]
    What Are you basing your buy recommendation off of? Good luck Tom but I bought a small amount of abot when it was High at .03ยข/share and I can't find anything that leads me to buy more.
    Mar 10, 2012. 05:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McEwen Mining's Silver Lining [View article]
    Thought you might be interested to read the latest news

    Phase 1 construction at the El Gallo Complex remains within budget and on schedule for first gold pour expected mid-year, 2012!

    Key development highlights over the past two weeks are: Foundation for the Phase 1 process plant now under construction

    Mining at Sargrado Corazon deposit begins

    Carbon columns for the Phase 1 process plant 60% complete Haul road between the Palmarito and El Gallo deposits 95% complete

    http://bit.ly/wyOqeU
    Mar 2, 2012. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick May Soar 64%, Besting Newmont [View article]
    Love ABX but I am really worried about them bringing Pueblo Viejo and Pascua-Lama on line
    Feb 27, 2012. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ZAGG Starting To Go Parabolic With Smartphone And Tablet Market Growth Through 2015 [View article]
    Picked up ZAGG a month ago after the HZO demonstration. Really looking forward to see the next earnings.
    Feb 26, 2012. 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once The Psychological Barrier Breaks Gold Shares Will Explode [View article]
    Growth potential for MUX is very big and there are good fundamentals behind it. Surprised to see how it has flown underneath so many investors radars. Thanks for the article
    Feb 26, 2012. 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Any Comeback For RadioShack? [View article]
    Not sure what to think about this, they have more than 8,000 points of distribution in the US and there is always a demand for smartphones and smartphone accessories in the near future. They are definitely struggling to be competitive at this point but I think it would be more likely as a takeover target since they don't have a whole lot debt. I'd pick it up if they dropped below $5/share, not expecting the dividend to stick around though
    Feb 26, 2012. 03:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
10 Comments
8 Likes