curious cat

Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets

wherever there's money to be made, someone will game the system. you can't go to the racetrack, the casinos, lotteries, wall street or washington, expecting to get an even break. i know you won't believe this, but even professional wrestling is fixed.

god, master of the universe, please do not smite us all. some of your rabbis seem to have taken berney madeoff as a role model. every politician in new jersey has been arrested. everyone and their mother is on the take. where will it end?

ok, the house has an advantage going in. once we know those odds, the best we can hope for may be... beating other suckers. just remember that luck still favors the prepared mind.

Barron's Calls a Bottom

great idea, mr ed. buy the forever stamps and you will be able to "lick" inflation. personally, i don't care one whit, let alone a whole whittle, about what magazines think. i remember when one of them had the ceo of enron on the cover, as man of the year or something, a year before that company blew up.

you may not want to buy yet, but you'd have to be an idiot to sell now. if you've sat through the last year, you are close enough to the bottom. of course, you could buy some gold miners if you've neglected them. the only thing i know for certain is this. if you spend trillions, you will have inflation and the dollar will devalue. precious metals and energy, denominated in dollars, will go much higher.

July Markets: The Running of the Sheep

to all those smart investors who are staying away from overvalued stocks and purchasing only the fairly or undervalued ones, let me add this cautionary tale. during the great tech bubble, i did exactly the same thing, because i knew that tech stocks were in a bubble, even when the bubble was small. so, i didn't participate on the way up.

however, when techs collapsed, they took my good, non-tech stocks with them. i was burned, even though i had not played with fire. be real careful out there. when the tide goes out, even good boats sink.

Current Recession Is Tracking the 1930s Bear Market

we're all right. the government is buying up banks, car companies and insurance companies. so, when the recovery goes ballistic, they will make a lot of money and be able to pay out social security payments, well beyond the expected failure date. detroit will make green cars, the environment will improve, as a result. california will have huge breakthroughs in stem cell research. the cost of medicine will go down astronomically, as we will suddenly be able to cure all life threatening diseases. marijuana will be legalized and sales of cheetos will explode through the roof. personally, i'm waiting for the rapture.

What Were the People of California Thinking?

over the years, we sent all of our beautiful people to california. the ocean called to them. the earth moved for them. can we really blame them for wanting a little something from the rest of us? after all, their property values have gone down from ten million to five million. isn't that enough of a sacrifice? what must they do to prove they deserve our sympathy, burn their largest cash crop?

these are the same people who voted to free o.j., the same people who gave us skateboarding in swimming pools, the same people who believe pyramids resharpen their razor blades, the same people that sent us pelosi. what more can we ask of them?

Faber and Schiff: Inflation Inevitable (So Here's What to Do)

i'm curious. why do things, like stocks, have to go down in an inflationary environment? it seems as if anything of value will be worth more dollars. doesn't that include companies? even if you think our dollar buys less gold and silver, isn't there room for companies charging more, too. that's not even considering the currency differentials that large internationals will translate into more dollars from their profits overseas, nor the increased competitiveness of our corporations as we sell into their markets. furthermore, in an inflationary environment, won't houses be worth more dollars? someone please explain the thinking on this issue.

We're Living Through the Best of Times

dear ebworthen, your pessimism stems largely from the fact that we only hear negativity in our media. the stories of our brightest heirs are shared intrafamily, rather than across the nation. every generation has had doubts about the next, always thinking that their children could not handle the dangers ahead. so, let me share with you the reason i believe in the future.

my son is very humble, but talented. he speaks both german and french fluently. he played the french horn and the piano when he was younger. he's recently taught himself to play the guitar. he has a black belt in karate, can ride a unicycle and juggle. he was a high school and college cheerleader. he ran track and field, was a decathlete in high school and winner of the iron man competition in college. he made perfect scores on his sat exam. he was a presidential scholar, excelling in both math and science and he earned a fulbright. at age 24, he is currently in boston college's m.b.a. program, a renaissance man. naturallly, his mother and i are proud of his values, his talents and accomplishments.

how has he performed in the face of adversity? over the years, he's had some injuries, broken fingers and nose. he endured braces. in high school, he rowed crew for a year, with a broken collar bone. later, while doing stunts, he shattered his atlas bone, (the one at the top of your spinal column which holds your head up). his doctor said he'd never seen anyone walking with this type of injury. (until that time, he was diving under cheerleaders to make sure they didn't hit the ground.) subsequently, he wore a neck brace for a year, following doctor's orders to stay within himself and quit cheering.

all the while, we stayed positive, searching for ways to help him, with therapies and supplements, etc. we prayed every day that he would not be paralyzed. miraculously, the completely fractured and separate pieces came together again. if you watch a boston college game, today, you can see him stunting with the other cheerleaders. he loves cheerleading and went back to it, as soon as he could.

our son never gives up, never quits until he reaches his goal. he sees adversity as a challenge. he trains and prepares for an undetermined future, keeping all his options open. he's taken wilderness training and cpr courses. he finishes everything he starts. he always has a plan and always has a backup plan. we didn't teach him what to think. we taught him how to think. sometimes, when i hear him playing rap music i question his taste, but i know that he also loves the songs i grew up with and music from other cultures and generations. my point is this. our son is one of many.

we do not always hear about the children of tomorrow,... until their time comes. have faith and do your part to make your little corner of the world a better place. when all those corners come together, our world will be healed.

Why Felix Should Walk Away

those of you commenting on contract law and morality might consider that the lender made a promise to loan and the borrower made a promise to pay. that pretty much sums it up. you may have a legal right to walk away, but you don't have anything to stand on when it comes to keeping your promises. almost anyone will forgive you if you lose your job and cannot pay, but no one will trust you if you have the ability to pay and refuse.

Washington's Dilemma: This Isn't a Recession, It's a Collapse

the great state of alabama laughs at your comment, sir. be assured that we have been baling our own cotton, since before eli whitney had his first gin. california's sour grapes have nothing to do with us. if california wishes to petition the congress for a handout, there is no need to denigrate our fair state to accomplish your task. you are, however, free to say what you wish regarding mississippi.

full disclosure: i am not authorized to speak or write for the great state of alabama. neither am i allowed to forge interstate policy with california. i am, however, allowed to travel through mississippi, carefully observing all speed limits.


On Jul 15 04:43 PM commoinsense1211 wrote:

> states like california and new york have been susidizing backwater
> s*** holes like alabama and mississippi for decades....

Jim Rogers: Lessons from a Legend

in comedy and in life,... timing is everything. a buy and hold strategy in commodities is just as useless as any other buy and hold. is he still holding tulips, too? as for an mba being worthless, you could say that about advanced degrees in most areas, because you get out of school what you put into it. for that matter, you won't learn anything in a boston hot tub, unless you ask questions.

Housing Datapoint of the Day, Sheila Bair Edition

sorry, but you might be off on this one. sheila is now a celebrity, like o.j. and michael and thousands of others who expect the fact that they've lived in, or owned an item, to enhance its value to ordinary people. not only that, but by writing about the house and the counter-current pool in the basement, you have unwittingly increased demand for it. pretty soon, her realtor will be calling her and telling her that there are unsolicited bids coming in for a million dollars.

oh, by the way, on that note, i've been trying to sell my recently remodeled home in montgomery, alabama for the last two years. it's a 2000 sq ft, three bedroom, two bath, with carport and large yard, in a quite neighborhood, with good schools. i was asking 139,000, but then lowered my price to 121,000. since i'm not famous, i'll throw in a toaster. my realtor: ryan beesley [phone].

We're Living Through the Best of Times

thank you, teresa. however, my point was not that our children are in the majority. it is that there are as many of them as there were in any previous generation. better still, the productivity of these hard workers will be magnified far beyond their number, as technology continues to improve. in fact, our species does not need a nation of einsteins.

it took only one person to invent the wheel, the assembly line, a better yielding crop, etc. when no one believed there would be a demand for more than a few computers world-wide, one motivated individual in a garage went another way. beyond our own fears and expectations, those of us who struggle from day to day must keep it together, supporting an environment where those special few can lead us into a better tomorrow.

i believe in the individual, in bringing out the best in everyone. i'm encouraged that so many people have strong opinions about government policies and programs, but i'm not too concerned about those policies or programs. government can smooth the road or put up road blocks, but individuals decide which roads to take. individuals will not be stopped.

imagine a world where one person invents room temperature superconductors, inexpensive and safe fusion power, cheap water reclamation, super seeds, methusalah drugs, virtual travel, nano-targeted machines, human brain to computer thought, etc. that future is not far away and dwarfs the discoveries we've made so far, but each previous discovery gave suceeding generations more free time to pursue their interests. some seeds fell on hard rock and some precious few fell on rich soil. we all need to make our little corner of the world a better place, with richer soil.


On Oct 26 09:21 AM TeresaE wrote:

> Your son sounds awesome, you should be proud.
>
> Thinking that he is in the majority is a mistake.
>
> Go to your local (non-uber upscale) mall, or WalMart, and see reality
> of the masses.
>
> It isn't so hard-working and pretty. In fact, for the majority, of
> which your son (and mine) will have to support, are 180 degrees away
> from your child.
>
> Your hard-working, stick to it son, will be supporting dozens that
> do nothing, contribute nothing and wait for their government dole.
>
>
> Someone will have to pay for all these programs, promises, debt and
> laziness.
>
> It will be those that do.
>
> Those most like your son.

Fundamentals Don't Support Oil at $55-60 a Barrel

the developing nations don't have to follow the same path to properity that we took. they can leap frog on our innovations and come in a few generations of technology later. don't expect all those consumers to consume as much of the same stuff we did.

More Investors Are Saying Bye-Bye to Buy and Hold

hmmm, it wasn't so long ago that everyone was coming up to me to announce they were becoming realtors. look how well that turned out for them. on the other hand, lincoln used to tell a story about a lawyer who was getting ready to leave his small town, even though he was the only lawyer there. seems that there wasn't enough business to keep him going. he was just about to pack it in,... when another lawyer moved into town. maybe there is an optimum number of people who can profit from market volatility at any given time.

i was watching a very successful fund manager on tv last night, who said that he is 100% long. he said that people put their money in his funds for him to invest, to add to their diversification, not for him to time the market. sometimes, defining your function makes it easier for you. we need these designated drivers to remind us of what's important. to get home safely, you must drive well, regardless of which road you take.

Welcome to the New Normal

predicting a war is like predicting an earthquake or a hurricane. there is no end to them, but a world war? well, that's different. we started numbering them, so we already have a name for it. will we start one over a collapsed financial system? will we start one over iran or north korea? we didn't start one when russia collapsed. we didn't start one when the chinese turned into capitalists. we didn't start one when oil prices ran up.

personally, i have more confidence in our leaders. they have better lines of communications. i have more confidence in our productivity. food is not scarce, thanks to improved farming techniques. our corporations are global. they have ears and assets on the ground, in every country. i have more confidence in education. people are better educated, receiving instantaneous information. our news is up to the second. better news makes for better decisions. i have more confidence in the future.

we are days away from curing the incurable. advances in genetics and pharmacology are happening daily. our computers are getting faster and faster. our programmers better and better. in no time, we'll be able to put raw materials into one end of factories and have finished products coming out the other end. our scientists are inches away from room temperature super conductors, fusion reactors, nanosized machines. i have faith that we are on an accelerated path to a much brighter future, where science fiction becomes science fact. do not fear the future. embrace it. look forward to it.