ACEMAN

More AIG Controversy: Maiden Lane III

My BAD, my commentary was meant for Alan von Altendorf's "Oil Casino." I nearly choked on my beignet and spilled my coffee when I saw the miscue. Take a look at Oil Casino and see my commentary.

More AIG Controversy: Maiden Lane III

Y'alls got no understanding of how MC methods are used in o/g reservoir calculations. In fact, y'all proves it twice in your vanity piece. Go look and read it again and yall will find it nice and pretty. MC is meant to make an educated guess within certain calculations and to not smooth out the curve as most Gaussian models do. Y'all got to know that implicitly. Also, y'all got to know fractual geometry and scaling distributions to narrow the parameters within which y'all is guessing and making a bet. And that bet is gonna be big and costly if y'alls is off. But y'all may not know for several years of production and even then there is new information coming up the pipeline to direct your attention to what you got in the ground or tunder the sea bed. Brother Kwak loves his politics and his conspiracy theories that's for sure. But before y'all now becomes crazed about representations of how much of a reservoir does Oil company X really have and thus call them cheats, how about y'alls banks that give you 0.5% while taking TARP moolah and not passing on to y'all the real return they are making on y'alls taxpayers money. It is time to focus on the real things instead of y'all petty vanities. Whew, time for that beignet and coffee at Cafe du Monde, NOLA.

Ethanol vs. Natural Gas or Coal: Comparison Not Even Close

Y'all think this is a great article? Then think again. What could be stated in a few words he drags it on with verbosity as if Brother Shaefer had discovered the corn dog. What Y'all should know is that your government ain't your friend especially when it comes to corn based ethanol: Y'all are intentionally mystified, mislead and surprised at all times when it comes to this corn into ethanol fiaso, and Y'alls is paying for it. Why even the US dept of so-called energy allows that some most of the production is bound for the EU to be mixed as "gazol." I've used it and y'all goes forever on the autoroutes and autobans.And yet if y'alls wants to make money on it, you got a loser that don't hunt. CZZ of Brazil is the best of the lot and the best SA article on it was written on April 21, 2008, "The long case for sugar-based ethanol producer Cosan Limited." And y'all won't have to snooze through a vanity article at all. Check it out as I watch y'all go by at the Cafe du Monde, NOLA.

Rare Earth Metals: A China Price

Y'all got it half-right. China's massive inventory build up in iron ore is meant to leverage spot pricing and fix contract delivery prices while China's Sovereign funds are contracting for faster and cheaper delivery from NOBGF for example and South African and Brazil suppliers. The cost of the build up is monumental but it does provide leverage in negotiations with RTP and BHP. Lurking in the background and willing to deal via spot markets is VALE and AAUKY. Ain't life grand at the Cafe du Monde!

Buffett's Burlington Buy Is Really a Bet on China

Y'all got to understand that it makes no sense to go buy yourself a national railroad with aging rails and expensive to run railroad cars to deliver various types of coal be it thermal or slurry, hard or soft, utilities or steelmakers. where is the advantage to that theory, unless he intends to write down the whole shebang for one major balance sheet correction. No one in their right mind would do that, even if y'all wanted to save America by building confidence in an aging and aged infrastructure, it makes no sense. Until the Secy of the Interior gets religion on coal and oil shale, this admin is in cohoots with the environuts who wish to stifle any additional commercial mining, drilling where there is loads of coal, oil and precious metals.Go read the latest roadblocks induced by the paranoid and crazy new EIR's promulgated by Secy Salazar. Y'all don't know a thing about hard commodities if you think Robber Baron Buffett's deal is about coal. Coal has a purpose in its comercial use and that it lights up your homes as electricity. Buffett could have bought all the major producers in the US for the money he paid for BNI. The deal could be some sort of derivative play on the value of the land and the right of way of the rails and this can easily be leveraged, sliced and diced, and sold to Wall Street and then bankable as a credit pool and sold for its righjts as a long term bond. all sounds familiar, don't it? Now, I really need my beignet and coffee at the Cafe du Monde, NOLA.

The Complete List of Chinese ADR Stocks

Y'all been dummified by the author of this here article. I won't do my usual strutin' my stuff here, but for all you ADR freaks who want to know about nearly every ADR in the world coming through New York, Y'alls got to go to bankof newyorkmellon.com. Y'all should peruse it and make up y'alls watch list and find them gems that make me money. This is the only dog in the hunt that is true. Also, if y'all are really lazy, buy the old stand-by, Jim Roger's A Bull in China; he identifies Chinese stocks that are NY ADR's. One caveat: most of them are OTC, or Reg 144, so y'all be having trouble trying to buy them or buying low volume ADRs at limit orders. But if y'all don't have a dog in the hunt, y'all can't make money.Now time for them beignets and coffee at the Cafe du Monde.

Riding the Rails: Why BNI Was Berkshire's Best Bet - And Vintage Buffett

Y'alls are missing the real picture perfectly painted by brother Mark Anthony; Buffett is no superman coming to the rescue, he's missed the mark on his valuation and y'all are going to pay for it too! Railroad over capacity, absolutely, righteously correct. It's the coal pipelines that will feed Mid American deals, but at this price it is all wrong. Who benefits here? Massey, Arch, Peabody and utilities generating electricity from good ol' coal? If that is the deal, then he has lost his valuation mind, 'cause if he really wants to make money for his investors he should be invested in Chinese railroads that are bursting at the seems and will now be the beneficiaries of the New Chinese stimulus to increase domestic rails to meet the ever increasing demands for rails to the 400 million folks in China who are about to create 20 new cities. And what do these folks need? They need electricity supplied by coal. And yet China does not have the coal capacity and thus is buying up coal inventory in Australia, Canada, Brazil, South Africa, Chile and Peru: coal and railroads go together like good beignets and hot coffee in
the Café du Monde

Century Aluminum Company (CENX): Q3 EPS of $0.45. Revenue of $229M (-59%) vs. $225M. Results impacted by $55.6M net after-tax benefit related to contract replacement. Shares +4.3% AH. (PR)

Y'all this is great news for investors who can now get on the gravy train for 2010 as aluminum soars on China demand and stockpiling. ACH in China cannot meet the demand because it and other Chinese producers don't have enough resources and electricity to meet internal demand. CENX and its operations in Iceland with lower capex and overall lower costs along with Glencore logistics and supply-chain will meet the china demand especially in infrastructure, real estate development and autos. China's growth may stumble a bit but the need for aluminum is real and the chinese know a deal when they see it.

The Secret Paulson-Goldman Meeting

Y'all got this so wrong that it takes a few shots of Stoli to get y'alls back on track. Paulson had no desire to spill the beans to folks at the swingin' Moscow Marriot; he was there to sniff out what the gas gamble for the proposed North and South pipelines was going to be and who will be in the game, notably the largest oil and gas trader, Goldman Sachs. And while he was at it, he was remindin' folks of his love for energy deals a la Boone Pickens. The Gorbechev angle is clear to all those who follow the "pipelines, boss, the pipelines" because he is fronting various European interests to make certain that these two pipelines don't get mess up by US policies toward Eastern Europe, Georgia, Germany and France. Paulson wants to be really rich, just ask Gorby--- M. Rich rich, and he's just biding his time before he fronts someone's gas deal along those new pipelines.Now it's time for some beignet's at Cafe du Monde.

Will New Finds Mean the End of Peak Oil?

Y'all got that right, my man Mr Cam sittin' in his sweet spot on Vancouver Island. However, you got to know that the only way to value exploration oil & gas companies is by the reserves in the ground which are more valuable as time goes on. The secondary factor is a binary relationship between the cost of storage, its CAPEX, and the yield on all that o/g that is stored for a rainy day or the best price on delivery. Y'all have to think supply chain economics if you want to make your money in this game. Now it's time for this mornings beignet and coffee a la Cafe du Monde, NOLA style.

Aluminum's Future: A Mixed Bag

Y'all got that right about this shiny product that takes alumina, bauxite and an immense amount of electricity to forge it. But it just ain't supply and demand that has driven this metal and its produces--from the mining pits to the finished product, it's about the cost of inventory (storage) as well as the yield on inventory and of course the shrewdness of the traders and the supply-chain companies to contract and make deliveries on time. Y'all need to ask yourself why is China storing so much of the shiny ingots these past six months regardless of pricing? The answer is in the many deals with the supply-chain folks and the traders. Moreover, now you got sovreigns bidding against themselves to supply both raw resources as well as finished or near finished product. Example is Brazil and its control of Vale/Rio to add aluminum smelting to its gigantic one way trade with China. But never underestimate Glencore and its proxy CENX as it has reduced its CAPEX and sold off unproductive mines and smelters in the US and continues to grow its state of the art smelters in Iceland at low costs of production due to the low cost of electricity! If you look at trade routes for delivery, CENX and Glencore are in the right place. Now it's time to get over to Le Cafe du Monde for my sugar coated beignet's while I make money in aluminum.

How to Trade Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Gold ETF Funds

Y'all need to look very carefully at what our Kuwati brothers are saying here. However, it won't be any outside event, but really an event that is already in motion, namely the fiat printing of money by the UST--actually a press of a button. But first amateurs and ordinary investors are going long when in fact they should emulate what the oil & gas boys are doing and that is shorting for Q4 and Q1 2010, and then when inflation begins the real Big Bang be prepared for a doubling in gas and oil to $85. The irony is that the Obama administration needs O & G prices to go up in order to collect taxes to cover the costs of the healthcare bill, the so-called cleaning up the inefficiencies with wind fall oil & gas profits. This will drive the dollar lower, China will make its settlements based on a basket of currencies including the Euro, GBP, Indonesia Ruppiah and Ozzie and NZ dollars. Now you got your forex play, as well. Well, now it's really time to contemplate that lovely bengiet on my plate with my coffee, NOLA style, laissez le bon temp roule.

UNG Trading 101

Y'all are making me cry: crying from laughin' so hard because now I now who I skunked on the counter trade.Y'all got to know some basic basics, y'all got to know something about fat tail and long taiL volatility ('invariant" randomness), you got to understand somethin' about dynamic hedging: hint: it ain't about stop-loss because if you let y'alls hedging on this bet then you truly are dumb. Remember: there are no rules but only price arbitrage. Y'all got skunked cause you believe Mr Market is y'alls friend, copain, bloke, good buddy. But Mr Market is Descartes' Malin Genie, it wants to mystify, mislead and surprise y'all and take your money. Whew, now it's time for that NOLA beignet with extra sugar. My money is going be sad to see y'all zip it up and move to T-Bills.

Crude Oil ETN to Close Down

Y'all are crying over an ETF or an ETN, when y'all mostly don't know the difference even if y'all read the prospectus. what y'all read was some half-brained instant expert on this here channel and jumped to high heaven salivating on the 200% short as y'all perceived it.All markets and especially commodity markets are deceptive, markets are turbulent, timing is everything as big gains and losses are concentrated time wise, prices are not points on a smooth curve but look like a jagged edge of the gnarliest mountain peak y'all ever seen, markets are uncertain, y'all need to estimate future volatility, and any valuation of the ETN, ETF is in truth a fiction. Why? because most investors like to hold onto a target to aim at---even if it is a moving target. Y'all got skunked by believing in these sorts of ETF's and ETN's as absolutes. So how do you survive in a world with out absolutes? Some people and some investors do it well all the time. So here is the skinny: the prime mover in financial markets is not value or price, but price differences; not averaging, but arbitraging. Arbitrage assumes no intrinsic value, you simply observe and forecast a difference in price, and try to PROFIT from it. And just remember a full understanding of arbitrage pricing is the realization that the mean is not golden. In NOLA a beignet is to be eaten and it ain't no fibonacci golden rule.

How Low Can Natural Gas Prices Go?

Y'all are asking the wrong question, hence y'all can't make no money if yall asking this question. The real question as it always pertains to gas as well as oil is: how much is in reserve at below current CAPEX to sell at a reasonable or even leverage profit. Y'all take everything so literally that y'all don't understand how oil & gas is traded in the open and spot markets. Remember, there are contracts, agreements for delivery, there is deception, misleading numbers and prices, and lots of surprises to get y'alls money to buy at the wrong time. Y'all got to study oil & gas 101 and dedicate y'alls self to these great commodities and make your moolah in good as well as bad markets. You don't even have to short them. Keep your eye on reserves for a start. Now it's time to savor that beignet with your coffee.