oldlures1

60 Comments

    • MBIA Sues Countrywide: Part of the Solution to Clean Up the Lies [view article]
      Has anyone seen the latest release regarding mark-to-market accounting? Here's the link: www.sec.gov/news/press...

      If this gets legs, I think it could "right" a "wrong" and be a big benefit to the bond insurer's balance sheets and capitalization structures.

      Mark-to-market has required them to write down assets to near zero without any regard for future income streams (premiums) generated by existing contracts. Those premium streams have been relatively unaffected by today's market turmoil, so the PV of those income streams should be relatively unaffected as well, yes? Unfortunately, no. They've had to book large write-downs (and obtain LOTS of additional capital as a result) to adhere to existing m-to-m standards...and adhere to the seemingly subjective demands of the rating agencies. Hopefully, this will right a wrong with regard to mark-to-market, and the bond insurers will find themselves not just "over-capitalized... but EXTREMELY over-capitalized. The spotlight will then turn to the rating agencies to see how they react - will they maintain their current positions? Last week, Moody's indicated it would be conducting follow-up reviews of the monolines over the coming weeks and implied that further downgrades were likely. We'll see.       Oct 03 02:00 PM
    • Ambac, MBIA: Moody's strikes again [view article]
      apppro and gph - I agree, its a self-fulfilling prophecy (has been since late last year) and it is "reality"......

      I continue to be suprised at the blatant subjectivity of the rating agencies, particularly as it relates to manipulation and/impact to the marketplace. The rating agencies wield a very powerful sword...with impunity....unaccounta... unregulated. One could naively assume, as I've done in the past, that said agencies would utilize the tool of ratings in a fair, objective, consistent and honest manner, but such is clearly not the case. They continue to act irresponsibly and with very harmful outcomes, and yet they are allowed to continue.
      I don't understand.       Sep 22 06:03 PM
    • Ambac Collapse: Anticlimax of the Week [view article]
      Just curious; am I the only one making these connections? Sep 22 05:51 PM
    • Ambac Collapse: Anticlimax of the Week [view article]
      Also, since on my conspiracy jag, consider this: MBIA agreed to reinsure FGIC's public muni portfolio of biz. This is a big win for MBI! But I bet they beat out Buffett in the bidding. However, if Moody's (note: Buffett is its largest shareholder) downgrades MBIA, and thereby disrupts their acquisition of FGIC's portfolio, that puts FGIC back on the auction block....where Buffett can pick it up for a song....the same cheap song that he offered (and was out-big on before).
      Again, just a theory...       Sep 22 05:51 PM
    • Ambac Collapse: Anticlimax of the Week [view article]
      briacal - it is true, Berkshire is Moody's largest shareholder. And considering Buffett started his own bond insurer earlier this year, does the air not carry the strong scent of fish on it? Percieved or real, there is a conflict of interest. The Connecticut AG raised the issue months ago, but his drum has gone quite. I wonder why?
      I've never been a conspiracy theorist, but....       Sep 22 05:41 PM
    • Moral Hazard: A Danger to Our Financial System [view article]
      Very well done! Sep 18 01:17 PM
    • Restoring Credibility to Ambac and MBIA [view article]
      Excellent write-up! One of the best I've read to date!! Well done. Aug 19 10:53 AM
    • MBIA's Momentous 2Q: Need More Evidence That the Turn Has Arrived? [view article]
      Informative and well-done, Tom. Thanks! Aug 17 10:34 AM
    • Who's Buying Financials? [view article]
      Time and time again your articles are gloom-n-doom, everybody is wrong and I am right, blah, blah, blah. Personally, I think you've fallen under the spell of the magical flute of various pied pipers; Ackman being one of the most prominent.
      I'm sorry, but going forward, I think I'll just skip over your blogs. They're just not worth the read.       Aug 17 10:23 AM
    • MBIA Turns Thuggish [view article]
      Sorry Felix, but stating that legal action against Ackman is a "...very, very, very bad idea.", particularly for the reasons you've cited, provokes my inclination to label you naive, if not a schmuck of sorts.

      True, Ackman may be able to rangle himself out of this potential jam by slipping through some legal loopholes, but his actions, as well as those of his cronies, should land him behind bars or, at a minimum, result in some very hefty, very punitive fines. That guy is bad news; bad with a capital "B".

      I said many months ago on SA that Ackman and his posse deserve some time in Club Fed, and I stand by my original contention.       Aug 15 01:38 PM
    • A 'Buy the Loser' Rally [view article]
      Perhaps the more appropriate title would be "A 'Buy the OVERSOLD' Rally"? But then, I guess anything slightly optimistic just wouldn't fit in here on SA, would it? *sigh* Jul 21 02:24 PM
    • Selling the Short Sellers Short: Another Sign of Trouble [view article]
      I too agree w/ the comments of .
      I understand the other has a right to his opinion, but it's complete bunk! And the fact that such skewed nonsense is posted on SA is not only reflective (in part) of what's wrong with the sytem, but makes me wonder why I keep coming back to reading SA -- I guess it's because the folks of E*Trade haven't provided a better, less-biased, source.

      *sigh* Moving on now...       Jul 18 01:00 PM
    • MBIA's GIC Exposure Could Trigger a Liquidity Crisis [view article]
      fx - You may be right, but do they ever go "long" on anything?! After all, it doesn't compliment their slash-n-trash tactics. Jun 30 06:04 PM
    • MBIA's GIC Exposure Could Trigger a Liquidity Crisis [view article]
      Here's a quote released today from MBIA's CFO, E. Edward "Chuck" Chaplin:

      "Contrary to recent statements in the media, MBIA is not in a 'tenuous situation'. Our ability to quickly reposition the assets underlying our ALM business in a difficult market demonstrates the high quality and liquidity of the portfolio. The holders of our insurance policies, GICs, medium-term notes and other debt instruments can rest assured that MBIA will meet its obligations to them as it always has -- on time and in full."

      Personally, I remain optimistic and supportive of MBIA. In fact, at this juncture, it has manifested into something more than an investment. To me, watching this saga unfold, it's the difference between right and wrong. And for clarification, MBIA is the former. When this all shakes out, I sincerely hope that MBIA is able to recover from this much-undeserved attack, and that the likes of Ackman, Tilson and others are spending some much-deserved time at Club Fed.

      Jun 30 02:26 PM
    • MBIA's GIC Exposure Could Trigger a Liquidity Crisis [view article]
      noybizniz - thanks for the link! Jun 30 02:20 PM
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