oldlures1's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/145890/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/149289-future-gloomy-for-ambac-mbia-berkshire-likely-to-emerge-as-new-bond-insurance-leader?source=feed#comment-607703 607703 I'm long MBI.]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 08:42:55 -0400 I'm long MBI.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149289-future-gloomy-for-ambac-mbia-berkshire-likely-to-emerge-as-new-bond-insurance-leader?source=feed#comment-607700 607700 Ultimately, you're probably right, there's no conflict of interest, but sometimes there only need be the perception of such.]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 08:40:38 -0400 Ultimately, you're probably right, there's no conflict of interest, but sometimes there only need be the perception of such.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149289-future-gloomy-for-ambac-mbia-berkshire-likely-to-emerge-as-new-bond-insurance-leader?source=feed#comment-595536 595536 Mon, 20 Jul 2009 15:51:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137703-mbia-and-bofa-thoughts-on-litigation?source=feed#comment-505905 505905 Fri, 15 May 2009 17:44:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/107153-berkshire-hathaway-credit-risk-index-puts-are-overblown-worries?source=feed#comment-420919 420919 Tue, 10 Mar 2009 16:14:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122556-what-s-going-on-at-mbia?source=feed#comment-403759 403759 Wed, 25 Feb 2009 19:41:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122556-what-s-going-on-at-mbia?source=feed#comment-402746 402746 Wed, 25 Feb 2009 09:23:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116674-bill-ackman-s-pershing-square-portfolio-update?source=feed#comment-368095 368095
PS - the fact that Congress actually engaged him for testimony is bewildering -- talk about a fox in the hen house!]]> Tue, 27 Jan 2009 18:11:11 -0500
PS - the fact that Congress actually engaged him for testimony is bewildering -- talk about a fox in the hen house!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105986-eu-moves-to-regulate-the-rating-agencies-sec-should-follow-suit?source=feed#comment-361305 361305 Tue, 20 Jan 2009 18:37:18 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114455-citi-s-flip-flop-on-mortgage-cramdowns-a-really-bad-idea?source=feed#comment-354922 354922 It is disheartening and disappointing (though not surprising) that many of the comments reflect/support a lack of culpability on the part of the borrower/homeowner. Sadly, it is the prevelance of such mentality, I believe, that exacerbates many of the issues facing us today and undermines progress going forward.
Keep it up - I like the way you think!]]> Tue, 13 Jan 2009 17:30:02 -0500 It is disheartening and disappointing (though not surprising) that many of the comments reflect/support a lack of culpability on the part of the borrower/homeowner. Sadly, it is the prevelance of such mentality, I believe, that exacerbates many of the issues facing us today and undermines progress going forward.
Keep it up - I like the way you think!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110388-aig-s-speculative-cdos-in-perspective?source=feed#comment-331459 331459 Tue, 16 Dec 2008 19:06:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/107113-ugly?source=feed#comment-311218 311218 1) reinstate the uptick rule
(it worked as intended since 1929, but some well-lobbied SEC knuckleheads erased it last year).
2) aggressively enforce the prohibition of "naked" short selling
(you should never be allowed to short stocks that don't exist - can you say "fraud"?)
3) disallow the purchase of CDS/credit default swaps by investors who do NOT have an insurable interest in the company
(I can't purchase hazard insurance on your home; that's illegal, so why should it be okay to buy default insurance in a company of which I have NO insurance interest? It shouldn't!)

If the current market was a bucking bronco, hedge funds would be the rider, and they'd be well past 8-second bell....with no grips....holding a trophy in one hand and a big bag-o-money in the other....just hoping this "ride" will go on forever! ]]> Thu, 20 Nov 2008 18:19:15 -0500 1) reinstate the uptick rule
(it worked as intended since 1929, but some well-lobbied SEC knuckleheads erased it last year).
2) aggressively enforce the prohibition of "naked" short selling
(you should never be allowed to short stocks that don't exist - can you say "fraud"?)
3) disallow the purchase of CDS/credit default swaps by investors who do NOT have an insurable interest in the company
(I can't purchase hazard insurance on your home; that's illegal, so why should it be okay to buy default insurance in a company of which I have NO insurance interest? It shouldn't!)

If the current market was a bucking bronco, hedge funds would be the rider, and they'd be well past 8-second bell....with no grips....holding a trophy in one hand and a big bag-o-money in the other....just hoping this "ride" will go on forever! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106978-is-citigroup-failing?source=feed#comment-311215 311215
Citi's losses, for the most part, are paper...not cash. The securities on their books are not worthless, but rather not tradable in the current environment (on that note, what is?! Basically, nothing that doesn't start with "T"). So FASB makes them write the assets down on their books.....but the true intrinsic value hasn't dropped that much.

I could be wrong, and only time will tell, but I don't believe for a second that the true book value of Citigroup is reflected in its current stock price. I think it has been tremendously oversold. [Yes, I am long Citi....currently VERY LONG].

You want to solve the ills of the stock market? Here's a few starters:
1) reinstate the uptick rule
(it worked as intended since 1929, but some well-lobbied SEC knuckleheads erased it last year).
2) aggressively enforce the prohibition of "naked" short selling
(you should never be allowed to short stocks that don't exist - can you say "fraud"?)
3) disallow the purchase of CDS/credit default swaps by investors who do NOT have an insurable interest in the company
(I can't purchase hazard insurance on your home; that's illegal, so why should it be okay to buy default insurance in a company of which I have NO insurance interest? It shouldn't!)]]> Thu, 20 Nov 2008 18:12:01 -0500
Citi's losses, for the most part, are paper...not cash. The securities on their books are not worthless, but rather not tradable in the current environment (on that note, what is?! Basically, nothing that doesn't start with "T"). So FASB makes them write the assets down on their books.....but the true intrinsic value hasn't dropped that much.

I could be wrong, and only time will tell, but I don't believe for a second that the true book value of Citigroup is reflected in its current stock price. I think it has been tremendously oversold. [Yes, I am long Citi....currently VERY LONG].

You want to solve the ills of the stock market? Here's a few starters:
1) reinstate the uptick rule
(it worked as intended since 1929, but some well-lobbied SEC knuckleheads erased it last year).
2) aggressively enforce the prohibition of "naked" short selling
(you should never be allowed to short stocks that don't exist - can you say "fraud"?)
3) disallow the purchase of CDS/credit default swaps by investors who do NOT have an insurable interest in the company
(I can't purchase hazard insurance on your home; that's illegal, so why should it be okay to buy default insurance in a company of which I have NO insurance interest? It shouldn't!)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99698-of-guarantees-and-printing-presses?source=feed#comment-281361 281361 Stick to the facts and you'll find value, but follow the "spin" and you'll come up empty-handed. (hint: you're currently in the latter category)]]> Mon, 13 Oct 2008 12:17:59 -0400 Stick to the facts and you'll find value, but follow the "spin" and you'll come up empty-handed. (hint: you're currently in the latter category)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98383-mbia-sues-countrywide-part-of-the-solution-to-clean-up-the-lies?source=feed#comment-272861 272861 www.sec.gov/news/press...

If this gets legs, I think it could "right" a "wrong" and be a big benefit to the bond insurer's balance sheets and capitalization structures.

Mark-to-market has required them to write down assets to near zero without any regard for future income streams (premiums) generated by existing contracts. Those premium streams have been relatively unaffected by today's market turmoil, so the PV of those income streams should be relatively unaffected as well, yes? Unfortunately, no. They've had to book large write-downs (and obtain LOTS of additional capital as a result) to adhere to existing m-to-m standards...and adhere to the seemingly subjective demands of the rating agencies. Hopefully, this will right a wrong with regard to mark-to-market, and the bond insurers will find themselves not just "over-capitalized" but EXTREMELY over-capitalized. The spotlight will then turn to the rating agencies to see how they react - will they maintain their current positions? Last week, Moody's indicated it would be conducting follow-up reviews of the monolines over the coming weeks and implied that further downgrades were likely. We'll see.]]> Fri, 03 Oct 2008 14:00:38 -0400 www.sec.gov/news/press...

If this gets legs, I think it could "right" a "wrong" and be a big benefit to the bond insurer's balance sheets and capitalization structures.

Mark-to-market has required them to write down assets to near zero without any regard for future income streams (premiums) generated by existing contracts. Those premium streams have been relatively unaffected by today's market turmoil, so the PV of those income streams should be relatively unaffected as well, yes? Unfortunately, no. They've had to book large write-downs (and obtain LOTS of additional capital as a result) to adhere to existing m-to-m standards...and adhere to the seemingly subjective demands of the rating agencies. Hopefully, this will right a wrong with regard to mark-to-market, and the bond insurers will find themselves not just "over-capitalized" but EXTREMELY over-capitalized. The spotlight will then turn to the rating agencies to see how they react - will they maintain their current positions? Last week, Moody's indicated it would be conducting follow-up reviews of the monolines over the coming weeks and implied that further downgrades were likely. We'll see.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96773-ambac-mbia-moody-s-strikes-again?source=feed#comment-261942 261942
I continue to be suprised at the blatant subjectivity of the rating agencies, particularly as it relates to manipulation and/impact to the marketplace. The rating agencies wield a very powerful sword...with impunity....unaccounta... unregulated. One could naively assume, as I've done in the past, that said agencies would utilize the tool of ratings in a fair, objective, consistent and honest manner, but such is clearly not the case. They continue to act irresponsibly and with very harmful outcomes, and yet they are allowed to continue.
I don't understand.]]> Mon, 22 Sep 2008 18:03:36 -0400
I continue to be suprised at the blatant subjectivity of the rating agencies, particularly as it relates to manipulation and/impact to the marketplace. The rating agencies wield a very powerful sword...with impunity....unaccounta... unregulated. One could naively assume, as I've done in the past, that said agencies would utilize the tool of ratings in a fair, objective, consistent and honest manner, but such is clearly not the case. They continue to act irresponsibly and with very harmful outcomes, and yet they are allowed to continue.
I don't understand.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96507-ambac-collapse-anticlimax-of-the-week?source=feed#comment-261932 261932 Mon, 22 Sep 2008 17:51:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96507-ambac-collapse-anticlimax-of-the-week?source=feed#comment-261931 261931 Again, just a theory...]]> Mon, 22 Sep 2008 17:51:13 -0400 Again, just a theory...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96507-ambac-collapse-anticlimax-of-the-week?source=feed#comment-261924 261924 I've never been a conspiracy theorist, but....]]> Mon, 22 Sep 2008 17:41:45 -0400 I've never been a conspiracy theorist, but....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96074-moral-hazard-a-danger-to-our-financial-system?source=feed#comment-258169 258169 Thu, 18 Sep 2008 13:17:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91322-restoring-credibility-to-ambac-and-mbia?source=feed#comment-233930 233930 Tue, 19 Aug 2008 10:53:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90899-mbia-s-momentous-2q-need-more-evidence-that-the-turn-has-arrived?source=feed#comment-232320 232320 Sun, 17 Aug 2008 10:34:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90999-who-s-buying-financials?source=feed#comment-232312 232312 I'm sorry, but going forward, I think I'll just skip over your blogs. They're just not worth the read.]]> Sun, 17 Aug 2008 10:23:29 -0400 I'm sorry, but going forward, I think I'll just skip over your blogs. They're just not worth the read.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90308-mbia-turns-thuggish?source=feed#comment-231343 231343
True, Ackman may be able to rangle himself out of this potential jam by slipping through some legal loopholes, but his actions, as well as those of his cronies, should land him behind bars or, at a minimum, result in some very hefty, very punitive fines. That guy is bad news; bad with a capital "B".

I said many months ago on SA that Ackman and his posse deserve some time in Club Fed, and I stand by my original contention.]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 13:38:45 -0400
True, Ackman may be able to rangle himself out of this potential jam by slipping through some legal loopholes, but his actions, as well as those of his cronies, should land him behind bars or, at a minimum, result in some very hefty, very punitive fines. That guy is bad news; bad with a capital "B".

I said many months ago on SA that Ackman and his posse deserve some time in Club Fed, and I stand by my original contention.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86003-a-buy-the-loser-rally?source=feed#comment-210832 210832 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:24:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85675-selling-the-short-sellers-short-another-sign-of-trouble?source=feed#comment-208811 208811 I understand the other has a right to his opinion, but it's complete bunk! And the fact that such skewed nonsense is posted on SA is not only reflective (in part) of what's wrong with the sytem, but makes me wonder why I keep coming back to reading SA -- I guess it's because the folks of E*Trade haven't provided a better, less-biased, source.

*sigh* Moving on now...]]> Fri, 18 Jul 2008 13:00:47 -0400 I understand the other has a right to his opinion, but it's complete bunk! And the fact that such skewed nonsense is posted on SA is not only reflective (in part) of what's wrong with the sytem, but makes me wonder why I keep coming back to reading SA -- I guess it's because the folks of E*Trade haven't provided a better, less-biased, source.

*sigh* Moving on now...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83057-mbia-s-gic-exposure-could-trigger-a-liquidity-crisis?source=feed#comment-196191 196191 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 18:04:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83057-mbia-s-gic-exposure-could-trigger-a-liquidity-crisis?source=feed#comment-196084 196084
"Contrary to recent statements in the media, MBIA is not in a 'tenuous situation'. Our ability to quickly reposition the assets underlying our ALM business in a difficult market demonstrates the high quality and liquidity of the portfolio. The holders of our insurance policies, GICs, medium-term notes and other debt instruments can rest assured that MBIA will meet its obligations to them as it always has -- on time and in full."

Personally, I remain optimistic and supportive of MBIA. In fact, at this juncture, it has manifested into something more than an investment. To me, watching this saga unfold, it's the difference between right and wrong. And for clarification, MBIA is the former. When this all shakes out, I sincerely hope that MBIA is able to recover from this much-undeserved attack, and that the likes of Ackman, Tilson and others are spending some much-deserved time at Club Fed.

]]> Mon, 30 Jun 2008 14:26:54 -0400
"Contrary to recent statements in the media, MBIA is not in a 'tenuous situation'. Our ability to quickly reposition the assets underlying our ALM business in a difficult market demonstrates the high quality and liquidity of the portfolio. The holders of our insurance policies, GICs, medium-term notes and other debt instruments can rest assured that MBIA will meet its obligations to them as it always has -- on time and in full."

Personally, I remain optimistic and supportive of MBIA. In fact, at this juncture, it has manifested into something more than an investment. To me, watching this saga unfold, it's the difference between right and wrong. And for clarification, MBIA is the former. When this all shakes out, I sincerely hope that MBIA is able to recover from this much-undeserved attack, and that the likes of Ackman, Tilson and others are spending some much-deserved time at Club Fed.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83057-mbia-s-gic-exposure-could-trigger-a-liquidity-crisis?source=feed#comment-196079 196079 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 14:20:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83208-outlook-remains-grim-for-mbia-ambac?source=feed#comment-195932 195932 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:30:58 -0400