oldlures1

MBIA's GIC Exposure Could Trigger a Liquidity Crisis

Tim Travis - well done!

MBIA's GIC Exposure Could Trigger a Liquidity Crisis

Mr. Tilson, you are obviously intelligent. Sadly though, many folks will read your entry as an accurate portrayal, not recognizing the half-truths and spin. I'll give you this, you are quite adept at using written word to further your "short" agenda.

Everything Financial Rolls Over: Is a Bounce Likely?

I've never been much of a chart-follower, but it's food-for-thought. Thanks for providing.

Help for the Guarantors - From an Unexpected Source

Crash - I read the 8-K as you suggested. I didn't see anything that wasn't previously disclosed in Moody's report or, for that matter, MBIA. Am I missing something? It was the June 25th filing that you suggested be read, correct? Also, I'm going to plead ignorance here, but could you elaborate on what you think FASB 163 is going to do?

Help for the Guarantors - From an Unexpected Source

*fingers crossed*

Help for the Guarantors - From an Unexpected Source

crashof2008 - You have every right to disagree and express same here, but a personal attack on Mr. Brown is uncalled, inappropriate and, in my opinion, childish.

Mr. Brown - thank you for your insight and information. It's good food-for-thought. Personally, I'm grateful to read a perspective that differs from the predictable gloom-n-doom rhetoric from the "crash" camp. Such differing views are hard to come by these days, so again, thank you!

The Current Market Atmosphere: Easy Money Hard to Come by

I'm with Sophisse. Can't speak for everyone, but I think it'd do me a world of good to disconnect for a while; seperate from the "noise", and clear my head. Too much info - my circuits are about to short.

Whitman's Q2 Letter and Disclosure Requirements

Mr. Sullivan, I'm in your camp.

Ultimately, I sincerely hope that the false propoganda disseminated by the bear raiders doesn't, in time, become self-fulfilling prophecy by virtue of the masses following their espoused "facts".

I am naive, obviously! I had no idea how easily people could be led, nor how easily (and pervasive) the markets could be manipulated. At the base level, the whole matter is very disheartening. However, it is equally disappointing that no one (of authority) is doing anything about it.

Rating Agencies Target Guarantors to Deflect Subprime Blame

Mr. Brown, I hear your frustration, and for what it's worth, I feel it as well! It is astonishing that no one is questioning the rating agencies actions, no one of authority that is. Their capricious and subjective decision-making seems so obvious, so blatant, and yet they're allowed to continue unchecked. It is maddening!

valuemanager03 - I strongly disagree. If MBI and ABK were allowed to keep their AAA; as they should pursuant to their capital adequancy and financial performance, they could continue writing business (as they were doing, albeit at far less volume, depsite what you read in the headlines), the mkt turmoil would eventually dissipate in time and the reputation of both companies would recover, again...in time. They don't need the new business to protect current policyholders, so there is no...I repeat, no...reason for them to have been downgraded in the first place.

With regard to the rating agencies, I've got say, it must be to operate with impunity, completely unaccountable for your actions...even if doing so ruins otherwise viable going concerns.

I'm a firm believer in free-market capitalism, but this is NOT what I had in mind. This is just plain wrong!

Investors Are Overlooking MBIA's Value - Barron's

Glad to see something positive for a change regarding MBIA and/or ABK. Thanks!
"jcrash" doesn't seem to hold much regard for Barron's. I haven't followed them, so I don't have a feeling for their accuracy or accumen, but I sure hope they're right on that $30-$40/share "liquidation" value. Admittedly, I was thinking in the $25-$30/range. Regardless, they don't deserve to be where they're at at the moment, that's for sure!

The End of the Monoline Bond Insurance Business

At a minimum, it's premature. In a broader sense, it's unsubstantiated propaganda. I regret that I expended time reading it.

On the Monolines: Brown vs. Tilson, Round 2

sulli5 - you're right on target! On certain fronts of the evolving soap opera boiled down to little more than a pissing contest. However, on a larger scale, the rating agencies have acted quite irresponsibly, wield an extremely powerful tool with unprofessional abandone. In fact, I liken their behavior of late to that of 3-yr old wielding a samarai sword in the midst of temper tantrum...and MBI and ABK are trying desperately to withstand the undeserving blows. Aside from my personal investments, I truly hope the companies survive, as they don't deserve what's been handed to them; they truly don't.

crashof2008 - I'm sorry to say, but it would appear that you've long since succomb to the magical flute of the pied pipers (Ackman, Tilson and the like). Good luck.

MBIA: Moody's Twists the Knife

Bill - I understand your point, but it's not that simple; you can't compare MBI and/or ABK's utlimate CDO exposure to the "fire sale" market value of Bear - they have some comonalitities, but overall they're quite different valuations.

Also, be careful not to compare total CDO value, or lack thereof, with the exposure to loss by MBI and/or ABK. Neither company is exposed to the entire CDO, only the senior and super-senior tranches of CDOs. And should those senior or super-senior tranches be breached, MBI and ABK are only obligated to make semi-annual pmts of P&I on the debt, not a lump sum. Of course, all you hear about is the lump sum book-adjustments for market-to-market valuation discounts, which is a non-cash GAAP entry (i.e. in the real world, it means nothing.)

I'm not trying insinuate that neither company will take a hit on their CDO exposure; they will, but I don't believe it will come anywhere close to the dire predictions expounding by (or extrapolated from) the headlines of many "short" writers.

Just my two cents. And admittedly, that's about all it's worth.

On the Monolines: Brown vs. Tilson, Round 2

Sadly thought, it also reminds me of my suspicion that MBI and ABK (and possibly FSA next?) are casualties of a well-orchestrated, collaberative effort by parties (such as the hedgies, Buffett and the rating agencies) to destroy the companies and create opportunities for profit in the process. Admittedly, I believe this has been a commonly employed tact for decades. However, it one thing to impact a company, its quite another when those actions impact $1 trillion in debt and the entire financial system! I've got to believe that much of the current turmoil will dissipate once the election is over.

Good grief, what have I become?! I've never EVER been conspiracy-minded, but when left with no reasonable (factual) substantive evidence for events, I guess I have search for explanations elsewhere.

On the Monolines: Brown vs. Tilson, Round 2

Excellent job, Mr. Brown! Well-articulated and, dare I say, ironclad! <grin>