oldlures1

Future Gloomy for Ambac, MBIA - Berkshire Likely to Emerge as New Bond Insurance Leader

On a different front, in light of Ambac's recent downgrade to CC and talks of possible regulatory intervention, I wonder what the possibility is that National could reinsure ABK's muni portfolio, like they did with FGIC? That'd be sweet!
I'm long MBI.

Future Gloomy for Ambac, MBIA - Berkshire Likely to Emerge as New Bond Insurance Leader

U338129 - Good point, but for arugment's sake, I'd offer that Moody's downgrade of BRK is irrelevant. As an aside, they only dropped BRK's rating after catching flack about the conflict of interest, so perhaps they're just attempting to save face.
Ultimately, you're probably right, there's no conflict of interest, but sometimes there only need be the perception of such.

Future Gloomy for Ambac, MBIA - Berkshire Likely to Emerge as New Bond Insurance Leader

Anybody know if BRK is still the largest shareholder of Moody's, the company that started the downgrade run on ABK and MBI? It screams conflict-of-interest, but I've heard little chatter on this matter since this time last year.

MBIA and BofA: Thoughts on Litigation

Thanks for your comments. It's good see a pro-MBIA veiwpoint. I'm long MBIA, and have been a fan of the co since before Ackman's shinanigans.

What's Going on at MBIA?

wobatus - kudos! Much of the real story isn't getting any air time, and, on tht note, will probably never be told. Instead of hearing genuine worthwhile debate over the catalysts for this mess, such as "naked" CDS, naked short shelling, elmination of uptick rule; all tools of manipulative hedge funds, as well as the destructive prior revisions to Fair Value Accounting (i.e. mark-to-market), the blatant bias and subjectivity of the rating agencies.....all of which have played a role.....instead, all folks hear is "subprime"..."insolven... bond insurers"...."let the banks fail!" Yep, Congress, the rating agencies, and manipulative hedge funds needed scapegoats, and apparently they've found them. And the public (and apparently Reggie) are buying the ruse.

What's Going on at MBIA?

I can't believe I wasted the time to read this. I should have learned the last time.

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square: Portfolio Update

Tom, I agree with you; Ackman is the king of "misinformation". His dubious (and dare I say, unethical) actions have destroyed companies, with negative consequences reaching far beyond their four walls. Frankly, in my humble, naive opinion, he should be counting his lucky stars that he's not a permanent resident of Club Fed. The fact that he's still out there, walking the streets, a continuing threat to our financial system (and the economy indirectly) is...well...unnerving, to say the least.

PS - the fact that Congress actually engaged him for testimony is bewildering -- talk about a fox in the hen house!

AIG's Speculative CDOs in Perspective

Interesting. The article and comments both provide convincing arguments for and against, but I'm a simpleton of sorts, so I default to the basics - you shouldn't be able to buy insurance without an insurable interest, period.

Of Guarantees and Printing Presses

Lovely. Haven't seen this type of nonsense on AS for months. I assume you hold as gospel the opinions of Ackman, as well as others of his ilk, so I'll offer you some advise; beware the Pied Piper (and those like him), as he'll fill your head with nonsense and lead you astray.
Stick to the facts and you'll find value, but follow the "spin" and you'll come up empty-handed. (hint: you're currently in the latter category)

MBIA Sues Countrywide: Part of the Solution to Clean Up the Lies

Has anyone seen the latest release regarding mark-to-market accounting? Here's the link: www.sec.gov/news/press...

If this gets legs, I think it could "right" a "wrong" and be a big benefit to the bond insurer's balance sheets and capitalization structures.

Mark-to-market has required them to write down assets to near zero without any regard for future income streams (premiums) generated by existing contracts. Those premium streams have been relatively unaffected by today's market turmoil, so the PV of those income streams should be relatively unaffected as well, yes? Unfortunately, no. They've had to book large write-downs (and obtain LOTS of additional capital as a result) to adhere to existing m-to-m standards...and adhere to the seemingly subjective demands of the rating agencies. Hopefully, this will right a wrong with regard to mark-to-market, and the bond insurers will find themselves not just "over-capitalized" but EXTREMELY over-capitalized. The spotlight will then turn to the rating agencies to see how they react - will they maintain their current positions? Last week, Moody's indicated it would be conducting follow-up reviews of the monolines over the coming weeks and implied that further downgrades were likely. We'll see.

Ambac, MBIA: Moody's strikes again

apppro and gph - I agree, its a self-fulfilling prophecy (has been since late last year) and it is "reality"....sadly.

I continue to be suprised at the blatant subjectivity of the rating agencies, particularly as it relates to manipulation and/impact to the marketplace. The rating agencies wield a very powerful sword...with impunity....unaccounta... unregulated. One could naively assume, as I've done in the past, that said agencies would utilize the tool of ratings in a fair, objective, consistent and honest manner, but such is clearly not the case. They continue to act irresponsibly and with very harmful outcomes, and yet they are allowed to continue.
I don't understand.

Ambac Collapse: Anticlimax of the Week

Just curious; am I the only one making these connections?

Ambac Collapse: Anticlimax of the Week

Also, since on my conspiracy jag, consider this: MBIA agreed to reinsure FGIC's public muni portfolio of biz. This is a big win for MBI! But I bet they beat out Buffett in the bidding. However, if Moody's (note: Buffett is its largest shareholder) downgrades MBIA, and thereby disrupts their acquisition of FGIC's portfolio, that puts FGIC back on the auction block....where Buffett can pick it up for a song....the same cheap song that he offered (and was out-big on before).
Again, just a theory...

Ambac Collapse: Anticlimax of the Week

briacal - it is true, Berkshire is Moody's largest shareholder. And considering Buffett started his own bond insurer earlier this year, does the air not carry the strong scent of fish on it? Percieved or real, there is a conflict of interest. The Connecticut AG raised the issue months ago, but his drum has gone quite. I wonder why?
I've never been a conspiracy theorist, but....

Moral Hazard: A Danger to Our Financial System

Very well done!