Fabien Hug

We’ve Survived Worse Markets (and Economies) Before – the 1970s

You have an excellent word to describe the situation then; apathy.
I think the problem now is apathy. We cling to policies and techniques that were in place for 20 years and hope for the best.

Cheating Death: Possible Winners and Losers in Life Extension Strategies

Pharma, day care, prothesis. We'll live longer but will need help along the way.

A Different Approach to Economic Forecasting: A Hard Look at Whitney's Skill

Still, everything is very expensive and I think she's right about it. You can stay long because there is nothing else to do; don't fight the FED. However, her reco to put some cash on the side makes sense.

Is This the Beginning of a New Secular Bull Market?

So far, following Mr. Staut has paid well. I'm glad I did and give him all my thanks. Regarding the future, I think that everything became very expensive again and I took some money out.

Isn't the Fed Monetizing Housing Debt?

Sean
As a European living in the US, your comments helped me put words on that strange feeling I have since living here. Feeling I get not be interacting with people but by reading the blogs and the paper press. However, I think and always thought that this the price the US has to pay to be the boss. Roughly, the US spend in military what Europe spends in social and education and vice versa. Life in Europe in much sweeter but, because there is always a but, without the US military, I think Europe would be in deep trouble also. With resources getting scarce and competition for them increasing with the emergence of India and China, I think it is unfortunately essential that a Western power shows a strong hand. Irak was effectively not a threat on the strict military sense but was certainly one on the political scene. If we loose our grip on these countries, we are going to feel it badly. Fortunately, the US still has what it takes to guarantee a favorable trade.

Schwab's Commission-Free ETFs: A Watershed Event

It good to have a new low cost opportunity. However, I doubt it will drastically change the industry. These non performing high load funds are still around even if you already much cheaper alternatives for some time now.

Has the Market Already Hit Its High for the Year?

Straight to the point. Too many people attach a morale value to the present conditions (read Mr. J. Grantham comments for the quarter) which, even if correct on a moral point of view, is irrelevant for investment decisions.

S&P500 Trend Line Support Broken: What's Next?

This market is "polluted" by government interventions, massive liquidity injections and guaranteed FED put option. You must look more at Washington than at the trend lines. Furthermore, I think that starting the trendline at March low gives a biased image. It was clearly an exceptional event and the trendline is too steep.

It's Good to Be Goldman: Part 64

Rotten to the core, but do they hire by any chance?

Stunning Facts About Public Sector Unions

In all fairness, home value assessments for tax purposes have been revised downward generously in CA. A house that sold for $ 1,1 mio in 2006 is now valued $ 765K for tax purposes.
This being said, prepare to vote with your feet. Running always beats democracy.

The Secret to the Banking Sector's Success

OK, the FED lends money at 0% to the banks. The banks buy Treasuries yielding 3 % from the FED. So far, so good, let's face it.
Those who didn't sell the market in a panic have almost been made whole. Others can refi on their mortgage at a great rate and, slowly but surely, banks' losses on assets are reduced by the profits made thanks to this little trick described above.
Now, why and how will this miracle end? Because it will end like the Chinese seller / lender virtuous circle ended. That's the questions we should ask ourselves.

Forecaster Gerald Celente: 'There Is No Economic Recovery'

I don't think a revolution is in the cards. Unless mothers see their children starving and even (look at Somalia). People don't like conflicts and hope for the best, until it's too late (look at Jewish people during WWII).

Whose Face Should Grace the $1 Million Bill?

Tim Iacono, for warning us.

U.S. Empire In Decline, Makes Way for China

Poor bloke. Tahiti is French and French women, they are something...


On Oct 25 10:35 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> bdt The US is turning into Europe. Think high taxes, chronic high
> unemployment, more government involvement in everything, less innovation,
> and much lower growth, in exchange for a social safety net and better
> coffee. That is the message the markets told us by retreating to
> the 6,000 handle in March, levels not seen since 1996, and down 54%
> from the 2007 peak. Equity prices will shrink to multiples, in line
> with permanently lower long term growth rates of maybe 1%-2%, a shadow
> of the 5% rate seen for much of this decade. Hint: that’s a lot lower
> than here. Perhaps this is what mature economies are supposed to
> look like. If someone is holding a gun to your head and you must
> buy American stocks, only select names that get the bulk of their
> earnings from overseas. Microsoft (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> Intel (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), Oracle, (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> Cisco (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) all get 60%-70% of their
> profits from overseas, where up to 90% of the real economic growth
> will come from for the next decade. Commodity, agricultural companies,
> and their ETF’s also fit this picture. As for me, I think I’ll move
> to Tahiti and live off of coconuts and freshly speared fish, wearing
> only a loin cloth. Anything is better than becoming French.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

Since I live in the US, I bought an Imac. It's a superb machine and I truly like it. Bit more expensive than a PC but well worth the difference imo (it runs Windows Office great). Back in Switzerland in January my mom wanted to buy her first PC with me teaching her. I told her get a Mac and you'll be running smoothly in 1 one day. The prices were crazy. Not worth it. The cheapest Mac laptop was selling for $1,400 vs $ 850 in the US! I don't understand how they can increase market share with such prices.