Fabien Hug's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/145909/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174217-cheating-death-possible-winners-and-losers-in-life-extension-strategies?source=feed#comment-767081 767081 Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:15:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173967-a-different-approach-to-economic-forecasting-a-hard-look-at-whitney-s-skill?source=feed#comment-765184 765184 Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:02:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173724-is-this-the-beginning-of-a-new-secular-bull-market?source=feed#comment-763665 763665 Tue, 17 Nov 2009 10:06:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173073-isn-t-the-fed-monetizing-housing-debt?source=feed#comment-759722 759722 As a European living in the US, your comments helped me put words on that strange feeling I have since living here. Feeling I get not be interacting with people but by reading the blogs and the paper press. However, I think and always thought that this the price the US has to pay to be the boss. Roughly, the US spend in military what Europe spends in social and education and vice versa. Life in Europe in much sweeter but, because there is always a but, without the US military, I think Europe would be in deep trouble also. With resources getting scarce and competition for them increasing with the emergence of India and China, I think it is unfortunately essential that a Western power shows a strong hand. Irak was effectively not a threat on the strict military sense but was certainly one on the political scene. If we loose our grip on these countries, we are going to feel it badly. Fortunately, the US still has what it takes to guarantee a favorable trade.]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 21:41:15 -0500 As a European living in the US, your comments helped me put words on that strange feeling I have since living here. Feeling I get not be interacting with people but by reading the blogs and the paper press. However, I think and always thought that this the price the US has to pay to be the boss. Roughly, the US spend in military what Europe spends in social and education and vice versa. Life in Europe in much sweeter but, because there is always a but, without the US military, I think Europe would be in deep trouble also. With resources getting scarce and competition for them increasing with the emergence of India and China, I think it is unfortunately essential that a Western power shows a strong hand. Irak was effectively not a threat on the strict military sense but was certainly one on the political scene. If we loose our grip on these countries, we are going to feel it badly. Fortunately, the US still has what it takes to guarantee a favorable trade.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171141-schwab-s-commission-free-etfs-a-watershed-event?source=feed#comment-746248 746248 Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:09:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171056-has-the-market-already-hit-its-high-for-the-year?source=feed#comment-744509 744509 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:22:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171042-s-p500-trend-line-support-broken-what-s-next?source=feed#comment-744259 744259 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:31:59 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170472-it-s-good-to-be-goldman-part-64?source=feed#comment-741601 741601 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:57:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170479-stunning-facts-about-public-sector-unions?source=feed#comment-741599 741599 This being said, prepare to vote with your feet. Running always beats democracy. ]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:55:16 -0500 This being said, prepare to vote with your feet. Running always beats democracy. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169040-the-secret-to-the-banking-sector-s-success?source=feed#comment-732479 732479 Those who didn't sell the market in a panic have almost been made whole. Others can refi on their mortgage at a great rate and, slowly but surely, banks' losses on assets are reduced by the profits made thanks to this little trick described above.
Now, why and how will this miracle end? Because it will end like the Chinese seller / lender virtuous circle ended. That's the questions we should ask ourselves. ]]> Tue, 27 Oct 2009 12:22:00 -0400 Those who didn't sell the market in a panic have almost been made whole. Others can refi on their mortgage at a great rate and, slowly but surely, banks' losses on assets are reduced by the profits made thanks to this little trick described above.
Now, why and how will this miracle end? Because it will end like the Chinese seller / lender virtuous circle ended. That's the questions we should ask ourselves. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168787-forecaster-gerald-celente-there-is-no-economic-recovery?source=feed#comment-730612 730612 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 10:31:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168768-whose-face-should-grace-the-1-million-bill?source=feed#comment-730543 730543 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 09:57:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168664-u-s-empire-in-decline-makes-way-for-china?source=feed#comment-729968 729968

On Oct 25 10:35 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> bdt The US is turning into Europe. Think high taxes, chronic high
> unemployment, more government involvement in everything, less innovation,
> and much lower growth, in exchange for a social safety net and better
> coffee. That is the message the markets told us by retreating to
> the 6,000 handle in March, levels not seen since 1996, and down 54%
> from the 2007 peak. Equity prices will shrink to multiples, in line
> with permanently lower long term growth rates of maybe 1%-2%, a shadow
> of the 5% rate seen for much of this decade. Hint: that’s a lot lower
> than here. Perhaps this is what mature economies are supposed to
> look like. If someone is holding a gun to your head and you must
> buy American stocks, only select names that get the bulk of their
> earnings from overseas. Microsoft (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> Intel (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), Oracle, (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> Cisco (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) all get 60%-70% of their
> profits from overseas, where up to 90% of the real economic growth
> will come from for the next decade. Commodity, agricultural companies,
> and their ETF’s also fit this picture. As for me, I think I’ll move
> to Tahiti and live off of coconuts and freshly speared fish, wearing
> only a loin cloth. Anything is better than becoming French.]]> Sun, 25 Oct 2009 21:12:31 -0400

On Oct 25 10:35 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> bdt The US is turning into Europe. Think high taxes, chronic high
> unemployment, more government involvement in everything, less innovation,
> and much lower growth, in exchange for a social safety net and better
> coffee. That is the message the markets told us by retreating to
> the 6,000 handle in March, levels not seen since 1996, and down 54%
> from the 2007 peak. Equity prices will shrink to multiples, in line
> with permanently lower long term growth rates of maybe 1%-2%, a shadow
> of the 5% rate seen for much of this decade. Hint: that’s a lot lower
> than here. Perhaps this is what mature economies are supposed to
> look like. If someone is holding a gun to your head and you must
> buy American stocks, only select names that get the bulk of their
> earnings from overseas. Microsoft (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> Intel (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), Oracle, (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> Cisco (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) all get 60%-70% of their
> profits from overseas, where up to 90% of the real economic growth
> will come from for the next decade. Commodity, agricultural companies,
> and their ETF’s also fit this picture. As for me, I think I’ll move
> to Tahiti and live off of coconuts and freshly speared fish, wearing
> only a loin cloth. Anything is better than becoming French.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168503-how-apple-s-market-share-will-propel-stock-to-500-part-1?source=feed#comment-728645 728645 Sat, 24 Oct 2009 17:16:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168200-scary-labor-market-chart-of-the-day?source=feed#comment-726909 726909 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 10:16:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168270-why-the-home-buyer-tax-credit-is-a-bad-idea?source=feed#comment-726887 726887 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 10:06:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168039-real-cause-of-this-financial-crisis-global-hunger-for-savings-instruments?source=feed#comment-725368 725368 That's the cause of the crisis, nothing else. If interest rates would be kept high, we would face a growth problem and there would be no savings to be fed with these high interest rates anyway. What should we do? Less growth, higher interest rates? That would profit the retired generation. Do they need it? Certainly, but they have the baby boomers to back them up for the moment (Soc Sec). Low interest rates, higher growth? That profits the workforce and the biggest demographic mass (it worked so far but the machine seems to be rusted). Is there a way to balance this out? Certainly, but that will involve a lot of politics and government interference so forget about for the moment. The solution for baby boomers? Profit from growth when you can and save. In Switzerland, the actuarial pension rate is 6.5% down from 7.5% earlier in the decade. This rate is an official rate that includes life expectancy and return on investment. It is used to compute the reserve level of pension funds. Many say that it's still too high (pension funds have real a problem to get returns that allow to reach this technical rate). What it means, is that if you have $ 1 mil in savings at retirement, you get $ 65,000/year in pension money. $ 1 mil is still a lot of money but $ 65,000 doesn't bring you far in a big US or European city. As far as I can see, baby boomers have nobody to cover their backs. ]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 12:24:25 -0400 That's the cause of the crisis, nothing else. If interest rates would be kept high, we would face a growth problem and there would be no savings to be fed with these high interest rates anyway. What should we do? Less growth, higher interest rates? That would profit the retired generation. Do they need it? Certainly, but they have the baby boomers to back them up for the moment (Soc Sec). Low interest rates, higher growth? That profits the workforce and the biggest demographic mass (it worked so far but the machine seems to be rusted). Is there a way to balance this out? Certainly, but that will involve a lot of politics and government interference so forget about for the moment. The solution for baby boomers? Profit from growth when you can and save. In Switzerland, the actuarial pension rate is 6.5% down from 7.5% earlier in the decade. This rate is an official rate that includes life expectancy and return on investment. It is used to compute the reserve level of pension funds. Many say that it's still too high (pension funds have real a problem to get returns that allow to reach this technical rate). What it means, is that if you have $ 1 mil in savings at retirement, you get $ 65,000/year in pension money. $ 1 mil is still a lot of money but $ 65,000 doesn't bring you far in a big US or European city. As far as I can see, baby boomers have nobody to cover their backs. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167223-l-a-commercial-real-estate-no-signs-of-life?source=feed#comment-720325 720325 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 09:20:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167072-how-galleon-got-and-lost-its-edge?source=feed#comment-719272 719272 Sun, 18 Oct 2009 09:53:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/166277-it-s-the-direction-of-stock-price-movement-that-counts?source=feed#comment-714813 714813 Wed, 14 Oct 2009 09:13:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163875-20-of-the-50-most-common-trading-mistakes?source=feed#comment-695712 695712 Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:29:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163198-what-happened-to-the-post-fed-statement-rally?source=feed#comment-690596 690596 Fri, 25 Sep 2009 09:14:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162844-equity-market-bulls-history-is-not-on-your-side?source=feed#comment-687359 687359 Wed, 23 Sep 2009 09:33:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162571-market-remains-overbought-but-don-t-expect-a-major-pullback?source=feed#comment-686034 686034 Tue, 22 Sep 2009 09:25:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162433-are-we-due-for-a-crash?source=feed#comment-684743 684743 Mon, 21 Sep 2009 08:44:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162190-straightforward-answers-to-recent-thorny-investment-questions?source=feed#comment-682365 682365 Fri, 18 Sep 2009 09:54:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161862-queasy-quantitative-easing-aids-speculators-yields?source=feed#comment-680509 680509

On Sep 16 04:10 PM SmartMoneyJoe wrote:

> Yesterday the 30-year bonds sold better than anyone expected. I was
> caught off guard, although we had planned our stop loss on the TBT
> position. We were ready for a selloff with a trailing stop entered
> in their computer at $58. This was important because of the potential
> swiftness of movement on this position. We were prescient in our
> preparedness, as TBT dropped $2.08 in twenty-seven minutes!
>
> It did not make sense that bonds would sell strongly, when the day
> before the 10-year bonds met resistance. Adding confusion was that
> the dollar sold off, while interest rates were going down. One would
> normally associate lower rates with a stronger dollar. The dollar
> had been falling since the beginning of March and bond sales were
> weak the previous week.
>
> Today the dollar popped higher. This week's auctions were for only
> $65 billion compared to last weeks monstrous $101 billion! Can you
> imagine we just auctioned more bonds in two weeks, than the annual
> national deficit of just a few years ago?
>
> The Fed has spent over half of the $300 billion they committed to
> print for Treasury bonds purchases. This program was to end in August,
> but Bernanke has floated the idea of extending the plan with additional
> 'quantitative easing' of as much as $700 billion. That is a BIG
> checkbook, I would remind you, like most bubbles, it will pop with
> great anguish!
>
> I recommend never entering trailing stops in your computer on long-term
> portfolio positions. Market makers can see them, and dip the market
> to take you out. Many times on trading positions, we enter our stops
> in the trading program, so we protect our profits.
> --------------------
>
> Look after your pennies, and your pounds will look after themselves.
>
> www.personalbudgetinve...]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 09:26:36 -0400

On Sep 16 04:10 PM SmartMoneyJoe wrote:

> Yesterday the 30-year bonds sold better than anyone expected. I was
> caught off guard, although we had planned our stop loss on the TBT
> position. We were ready for a selloff with a trailing stop entered
> in their computer at $58. This was important because of the potential
> swiftness of movement on this position. We were prescient in our
> preparedness, as TBT dropped $2.08 in twenty-seven minutes!
>
> It did not make sense that bonds would sell strongly, when the day
> before the 10-year bonds met resistance. Adding confusion was that
> the dollar sold off, while interest rates were going down. One would
> normally associate lower rates with a stronger dollar. The dollar
> had been falling since the beginning of March and bond sales were
> weak the previous week.
>
> Today the dollar popped higher. This week's auctions were for only
> $65 billion compared to last weeks monstrous $101 billion! Can you
> imagine we just auctioned more bonds in two weeks, than the annual
> national deficit of just a few years ago?
>
> The Fed has spent over half of the $300 billion they committed to
> print for Treasury bonds purchases. This program was to end in August,
> but Bernanke has floated the idea of extending the plan with additional
> 'quantitative easing' of as much as $700 billion. That is a BIG
> checkbook, I would remind you, like most bubbles, it will pop with
> great anguish!
>
> I recommend never entering trailing stops in your computer on long-term
> portfolio positions. Market makers can see them, and dip the market
> to take you out. Many times on trading positions, we enter our stops
> in the trading program, so we protect our profits.
> --------------------
>
> Look after your pennies, and your pounds will look after themselves.
>
> www.personalbudgetinve...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161911-senator-isakson-here-s-why-extending-the-home-buyer-program-is-a-big-mistake?source=feed#comment-680456 680456 Thu, 17 Sep 2009 08:44:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161297-could-fico-scoring-scheme-boost-housing-market?source=feed#comment-676798 676798 However, it seems to me that the advantage of FICO is that you face much less subjectivity if you can manage to have a good score.
Anyway, I think it is good to "smoothen" blips in a credit history.]]> Mon, 14 Sep 2009 22:42:58 -0400 However, it seems to me that the advantage of FICO is that you face much less subjectivity if you can manage to have a good score.
Anyway, I think it is good to "smoothen" blips in a credit history.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161354-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-675530 675530 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 09:06:49 -0400