fabien hug

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115 Comments

    • Sun Aug 3rd 09:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Economic Outlook: Cut Out the Noise
      A lot of bad is already in the $ price, other currencies should follow particularly in Europe. I also think that from here, the $ should stay or go higher.
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    • Wed Jul 30th 18:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Best of the Deal - Cramer's Stop Trading (7/29/08)
      MER lend 5 billions to the buyer for it to buy 6.5 billions of debt.
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    • Tue Jul 29th 14:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Making Profits Through Understanding Market Psychology
      The crowd of hard workers, how do you find your information? Do you spend hours reading management reports? I don't do any research and it is not a question of laziness. I think it is useless for most of us. I am a CFA and worked for several boutique banks and I have never seen an analyst get any particular insight in a stock even if they do the most serious job they can. If you don't have access to the CEO or CFO for lunch or golf, you have NO information.
      Base yourself on a serious analyst, check the reco with some publicly available tools (Stock Sccoter and else) and/or Vectorvest and off you go. The key; if it doesn't go the expected direction; sell or cover.
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    • Fri Jul 25th 08:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Setting a New High Mark for the Next Housing Bubble
      Arnold, I agree with the way you present the problem. However, to reach parity (without rent increases) it takes another 20% drop in market prices. In San Fernando Valley prices are still in the high 400k and mortgage rates seem to be on the way up.
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    • Sat Jul 19th 13:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Silly "Taxpayer Funded" Bailout Talk
      If GDP drops what happens? Talk about % of debt relative to home value.
      As per the graph, politics aside, US$ wouldn't qualify to enter the EUR. Not good.
      View article »
    • Sat Jul 19th 13:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Free the Frozen Fed!
      Truthinvesting, I am really sorry but I have never seen a country with such an amount of crooks in my whole life. The only good thing is that the few who get caught get penalties just short of the one the get in China.
      View article »
    • Sat Jul 19th 13:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Butterfly Effect and the Uptick Rule
      The problem with this butterfly theory is that it implies that a single event can launch a storm. In fact, a lot of factors need to be present to launch a storm. When these factors are present (over leverage, mispricing, wrong ratings, etc) the storm will launch. What actually triggers the storm is not really important.
      Regarding watchdogs, they always seem to be pro cyclic. They remove a rule that attenuates short selling when the market is at the top. If, effectively, they are not the crooks mentioned in some comments, their ability to keep these crooks under watch is not that great. Considering that more than 50% of your productive output is transferred to the gvmt through various taxes, I do not consider it a satisfactory result.
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    • Thu Jul 10th 09:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Stagflation and the Limits of Growth
      One of the definition of economics is the allocation of LIMITED resources to UNLIMITED needs. Now that some big developing nations got a taste of consumer products, they are not going to stop. The pie may grow a little bit but not fast enough and we will have to share more of it.
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    • Tue Jul 8th 11:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bank of America vs. Banco Santander: Whose Dividend Is Secure?
      Listen to Mak. The Spanish market is dangerous, people went overboard on real estate. Furthermore, you have a socialist gvmt; people will declare bankruptcy and that's going to be it. You also have a big $/EUR currency risk. The buck is so low now...
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    • Thu Jul 3rd 11:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Have the Financials Found Their Bottom?
      Effectively, where are the fundamentals? Many years of credit expansion are at an end and losses are piling up (see report somewhere in this blog about car loans). Short term rebounds are always possible but there is not much value in this sector right now.
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    • Thu Jul 3rd 09:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The U.S. Dollar: A Six Month Outlook
      Very good analysis, factual and I think right to the point.
      Thank you
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    • Tue Jun 24th 10:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don’t Worry About a Return to ‘70s Stagflation
      That's right we are not in the 70's anymore. But beware of "this time it's different". In the 70's wages were adjusted to a different measure of inflation. The majority of people kept their jobs and could consume. The minority lost their jobs. Now, it seems that wages are not adjusted. People seem to keep their jobs (if unemployment is measured correctly) but they can't consume. This will create another set of problems.
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    • Thu Jun 19th 10:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      In Praise of the Wealth Effect
      When stocks were raising banks didn't try to lend to you on this value. When home values were high, there were constant proposals from banks to borrow against it to finance consumption. Hammering from banks and keep up with with your neighbor created this.
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    • Wed Jun 11th 09:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Measuring Inflation? You Try Setting the Rules!
      Gas goes from $ 2 to $ 4 a gallon. You exchange your Silverado for a Prius you get 40 mpg instead of 10 mpg, deflation. Et voila.
      View article »
    • Tue May 20th 09:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Who's Wrong About Inflation?
      It is like the GPS in a car. Bang, $ 1,500 more and you use it 2 times/year on average but you have a great hedonistic experience. Another great hedonistic experience is Windows Vista and the very expensive PC you must purchase to run it.
      View article »
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