fabien hug

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115 Comments

    • Fri Apr 11th 10:55 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Two Housing Crises
      A lot of people don't own their houses, the bank does and the government does (invest in tax liens). RE is an investment like any other and sometimes it is better to rent, not always. You have to do the math and compare. When I came in LA from Switzerland 2 years ago there was no way I'd put so much money compared when I compared with the price level of 5 years ago and I rented.
      I think a good point to start is to ask yourself; if I buy this house to rent it, would I have a brake even in cash flow? If not, it may be too expensive.
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    • Fri Apr 11th 10:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Fed is Terrified
      To WaveNet; how can you be constructive in face of such a mess. People have been living in LaLa land for 5 years and this FED is trying to keep the illusion alive. Since when borrowing on unrealized equity to purchase a RV or put granite in a kitchen, is a sound economic decision? Now people all over the world are starving, mighty America is whining like a baby and nobody wants to bite the bullet. It is ridiculous. Any sane social group would stop it all, reassess the situation and give new direction. There is no leadership, no vision anymore and it doesn't bode well for future generations as well as for our.
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    • Fri Apr 11th 10:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Value Traps and Market Bottoms
      Good article. Thanks. Stocks are cheap relative to their past earnings and still... Lots of not so good news may still come.
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    • Tue Apr 8th 09:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Alan Greenspan Responds to His Critics
      If there is a decoupling in the economy I think we have one in the data produced by our governments and the perception of the public. In a less spectacular way we face a similar situation as the one your described with inflation (Bernanke just said again that inflation is not a problem but my day to day purchasing power is REALY shrinking). This is extremely confusing and nobody seems to mind about it.
      It is like if a foot is still 12 inches long in Washington but only 10 inches at Home Depot.
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    • Tue Apr 8th 09:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Plunging Schwab Bond Funds
      Gee, this market is awful. Where can you turn? We are a bunch of people facing retirement and forced into gambling on MM funds for a living.
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    • Tue Apr 8th 09:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Bottom Already? I Don't Think So
      I liked your analysis and your way to focus on fundamentals that are so quickly ignored. Beware however of the fact that this market was manipulated (ghost profits in banks, inflation data) and is still manipulated (Bernanke just said inflation is no a problem, RE market will have bottomed at the latest by year end! and, as you mentioned, Lehman seems to interpret its figures in a funny way...again).
      What do I mean whit that? It is very possible that the market starts a new rally based on whatever positive data they can find. It seems that there is still a lot of money around and what can you do with it?
      When China and India will announce that they start building an Interstate road network then we may see a change.
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    • Fri Apr 4th 09:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Taxpayer Bailout Ideas Stabilize U.S. Dollar, Trip Gold
      Great article. About troops in Irak (even if I don't think that the next president is going to be a democrat), if US withdraw it is going to be very messy. If US stays (a 100 years with McCain) it is going to be very expensive. It is already very expensive.
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    • Thu Apr 3rd 13:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Disclosure: Long Bernanke
      Are you looking for a job at the FED ? Under Greenspan, no problemo. During Bernanke, no problemo. This incredible capacity of the US economy to adapt, adjust? It is only printed money. Relax, you sound like the Germans in WWII or the Swiss in the 80's (-2% unemployment rate).
      The biggest strength of this country was its ability to face problems. Now they are dealing; you saved your bank now I save my voter. It is ridiculous, particularly when you are supposed to be the leader.
      The only thing that's left is innovation. However, if you visit UCLA's engineering department, 90% of the students are from Asia. If this is the same in other universities, expect innovation to start to move away sooner than later.
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    • Tue Apr 1st 10:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      10 Reasons Why the Dollar Will Strengthen
      I do also think that the pendulum will switch course but, as Mr. King mentioned, the recovery will likely be less robust.
      -The Euro may be prepubescent but prepubescents are generally in a much better health than old people. In any case this currency is better managed than the $.
      -You have another alternative to the $ in the realm of commodities. If you run huge surpluses, it doesn't hurt to put some of them in hard assets you can always use later.
      -US is not anymore the stronghold of financial normality since other countries adopted US methods. Think that during the last five years countries like Russia or Brasil turned out to be better managed than the US (OK it is too early to pretend that it will last but still...). This decline in relative competitiveness may have long term effects. People may want to invest more in their homelands.
      -There is an important aspect that's overlooked. US runs a huge deficit with its trading partners. This deficit is financed by the surpluses of these same trading partners. What will happen when the surpluses melt away thanks to a falling $? This virtuous circle will end or collapse or slowly stop. Some months ago this refinancing problem was closely watched by the markets but today nobody talks about it anymore. I think the $ future is closely linked to that. Maybe that's why the Buffets of this world are still bearish on the buck.
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    • Sun Mar 30th 19:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Citigroup: We Never Learn
      How much did you say?
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    • Fri Mar 28th 15:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Viewing Recessions at the State Level
      I don't have your technical expertise but on intuition I was asking myself the other day if this centralization of the monetary policy is not becoming more a burden than an asset. Each state has its own economic cycle and that one fits all policy in my opinion could exacerbate problems in certain states whilst not be good enough for other states.
      To be the only financial block in the world was certainly an advantage but now, with other blocks emerging (the Euro, China, commodity countries) that will have a more and more influence, I wonder if a more elusive policy would not grant better results. Of course, that would imply dramatic changes ...
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    • Fri Mar 28th 14:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has Wall Street Lost Its Edge?
      Good article. Thanks.
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    • Wed Mar 26th 10:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      In Defense of Bill Miller
      I agree with you that there is a lot of noisy rants in those blogs and I always appreciate to read those who take the time to "helicopter" their views.
      Regarding your point of view on the future of the market, I don't quite agree on everything.
      -A low price is not absolutely an indicator of cheap (BoA put $ 2b in Countrywide at $ 19/share, not to mention the BS saga).
      -Why are we in this situation and are these conditions still present? I think they are. Very briefly, the problem originates in the real estate bubble and the correction still has a good way to go.
      -There is effectively a bubble in everything Treasury. If you lock yourself for 30 years with the US government, your risk is rewarded at less than 5%! Looking at the last 20 years, I wouldn't bet that the next 20 could be so smooth that 5% can compensate for your risk. However there are certainly some macro economic factors that can justify this at present but it is difficult to find opinions on this subject.
      -The bubble in Treasuries doesn't imply that other assets are cheap. If Treasuries drop, this will not help the valuation of other assets if you use the discount of CF model.
      -Decoupling is not happening and will not happen. Who can afford to lose its biggest client? However normalization is happening. What is normalization? A lot of countries, and not small ones, are adopting US norms or models in conducting business when US itself is clearly lowering its standards. This creates alternatives and this will have some effect on the US economy.
      -To ponder this, US is still the leader in innovation and is, to my knowledge, the only market in the world where you can invest the yield curb no matter how much money you have.
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    • Tue Mar 25th 10:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Decouples From Global Markets - in Reverse
      There is decoupling, these figures are inversely proportional to the amount of government's cash injection into the economy. If China starts to sell its us t/bonds and inject them into its economy... you know the drill.
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    • Fri Mar 21st 22:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      15 Notes on the Current Market
      I like your perspectives. You try to make some sense out of that mess and your article is a very good basis for reflection. Thanks
      View article »
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