Fabien Hug

A Different Approach to Economic Forecasting: A Hard Look at Whitney's Skill

Still, everything is very expensive and I think she's right about it. You can stay long because there is nothing else to do; don't fight the FED. However, her reco to put some cash on the side makes sense.

The Secret to the Banking Sector's Success

OK, the FED lends money at 0% to the banks. The banks buy Treasuries yielding 3 % from the FED. So far, so good, let's face it.
Those who didn't sell the market in a panic have almost been made whole. Others can refi on their mortgage at a great rate and, slowly but surely, banks' losses on assets are reduced by the profits made thanks to this little trick described above.
Now, why and how will this miracle end? Because it will end like the Chinese seller / lender virtuous circle ended. That's the questions we should ask ourselves.

Two Prominent Economists Admit Leverage Kills

Counter cyclical measures are great in theory but they are never implemented. The pressure of the crowd is too strong.

Hedging Your Way to Healthy Dividends: Part 2

good ideas and interesting too

Juicing Your Income with Select Bonds

I don't have that one. 4 stars with MS, manager in place since 1996, good yield for the duration of 3.36 year, no short position and reasonable expense ration of 0.76%. Just one thing to study, a position of 6.59% of assets in a T Rowe Price Reserve (maybe their the cash on hand 8.4%).
It seems all clear, I'll check it further.


On May 18 02:34 PM briantigers2009 wrote:

> what about T Rowe Prices High Yield Bond fund. PRHYX. Priced at
>
> 5.32 as of May 18 with a dividend yield of 8.32 % and a 3 month return
> of nearly 9%.
> Any comments on this one.

Stress Tests Were Never a Serious Exercise

They "Washington DC" were always clear about that; "we will do whatever necessary to avoid a collapse of the financial system".
That's what they are doing, invest accordingly. Is it fair? Is it globally good for us the outsiders? I frankly don't know.
Nobody complained when they guaranteed $ 100k/deposit (only in America), nobody complained when they were lending money like if there was no tomorrow. We are still in the same logic and have to live with it.

Jonathan Finger Balks at BofA Results, Pushes for Lewis's Ouster

As much as I would like to see these bankers bite the dust, I'm very worried about an eventual collapse of the system. Billions of what is left in savings would be lost forever. I think that, like in life, what's fun is not necessarily healthy.

Why GM's Wagoner and Not BofA's Lewis?

In what shape is this country if it needs Lewis more than Lewis needs it?

Time to Bury the Rotting Carcasses of Dead U.S. Banks

As a matter of fact they have opposing thumbs. Even their feet work this way. That's how they can eat a banana whilst they type.


On Mar 15 05:46 PM InnocentsAbroad wrote:

> Monkeys have a hard time typing, because they don't have opposing
> thumbs.

Bailoutspotting: Zombie Bank System Needs to Detox from Federal Rescues

Good post but you unfortunately bring more fuel to the crowds that simply shout "just have to" (let the banks fail, nationalize, fire the Senate, etc.). Now, what is the law of unintended consequences if "zombie banks" are given a silver bullet?
If everything goes down the drain we can always move to Switzerland; they prescribe heroin there. Heroin is not so much a problem when you have some; look at Keith Richards. He certainly doesn't spend his days watching Wall Street and DC, shitting in his pants.

Accounting Rule Changes Creating False Rally in Financials

Change of rules in the middle of the game is never good and I can understand the frustration of some people. However, when I read a lot of posts lately that were promoting sort of a final solution; nationalize the banks, wipe out bondholders and so on, I didn't think this was the best solution. This market will take time to heal and it is in the best interest of almost everybody that it heals well. If a change of rules helps, why not.

Opportunities in Bank Bonds

About systemic risk; if the US government can't back up C, BofA or AIG anymore after all the money that was already poured in, we are in deep trouble.
Who will be next? Furthermore, PIMCO, pension funds and Sovereign Funds can't do with FDIC insured CDs.
I think, it's too late to back up and receivership was never a viable option.

Thoughts on the Worthless Equity Value of Some Banks

Risk for preferred equity and bond holders is real but I still think that this bond and CDS trading has more to do with opportunity than fundamentals. I hope that C's first quarter results will confirm Mr. Pendit declarations from early this week and that it was not another manipulation. If Q1 results don't confirm, brace yourself.

Preview from Europe: The Horror Show's Alive and Well

The only country that would gain from quitting the EUR is Germany. As long as they stay, EUR stays.

Stocks on the Verge of... Something

Great article and info. Thanks. And yes, you can't really trust CEOs.