carefully investing but more often investigating; have had 6 decades of remembered losses in both public markets and private placements. Still a board member of a nonprofit and still holding shares in companies seeded long ago but not yet having reached their investor exits. Trying to be thoughtful about investments and enjoying the experience. Becoming less current all the time, likely finding me to be a doddering old fuddy duddy for anyone reading what I post here.
I am retired and live in San Francisco’s quaint Sunnyside neighborhood; I live just five short blocks from San Francisco’s only wilderness park: the world renowned Glen Canyon Park!
My investment approach is based on my belief that the US economy is transitioning from a currency based economic system to an earnings/wealth creation based economic system.
I think we are now in the middle stages of this transition: the dollar is still used as global legal tender, but there is vocal group of central bankers advocating changing the global currency system. And indeed, even among our friends, the dollar is losing its luster as a global tender. Our ongoing budget deficits, our ongoing trade deficits, and our ongoing commitment to deficit financing to finance whatever. Our policy wonks decisions makes many conclude that we are no longer in control of our money supply! Can we control expenses? The end will come because we cannot stop printing more money to pay for things;, our expenses must be paid for through revenues, not credit.
The only questions is how and when the end will occur: I think the global currency system will change quickly, with the dollar users simply abandoning the dollar: they will wake up one morning and decide it is no longer prudent to use the dollar as global legal tender. I think there is a strong possibility that the dollar users will abandonment the dollar in panic, like how the Dutch tulip traders abandon their stockpile of tulips, they woke up one fine morning and understood that the tulip is a beautiful flower but not worth the money they paid for it. Panic ensued, with tulip holders trying to sell their tulip stockpile for any price!
I doubt that the dollar abandonment (or the euro, the Yen, or other national currencies used as global legal tender) will occur slowly, simply because the last ones to unload their dollar holding will lose money big time.
So my thinking is that the global currency system will change suddenly, with both domestic and foreign dollar holders taking a loss, with the foreign dollar holders taking the biggest loss.
I pray that the global community will see this currency upheaval as an opportunity to work together to develop a global currency system that is fair and equitable to all players.
Jeff is the President of NewArc Investments Inc., manager of both individual and institutional investments. Jeff is a registered investment advisor, and portfolio manager for NewArc's investment programs. Jeff is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy. Jeff began in the financial business as Research Director for trading firm at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He investigated anomalies in the standard option pricing models, taught classes for beginning options traders, and developed new forecasting techniques. In 1991 he established a general research consultancy, working with professional traders at all of the Chicago financial exchanges. In 1998 he started NewArc Investments, Inc. Jeff has a commitment to the specific needs of individual investors. It is not a one-size-fits all approach, but one that emphasizes the unique circumstances of each client. Jeff also serves on the board of two small technology companies (currently Chairman at one). He is occasionally as an expert witness in legal cases involving financial markets and hedging.