Wall_St_Geek

Dell Investors Need More Patience

More patience - you are joking right? You have obviously only followed this stock for a short period of time. You forget when it was trading in the $40's in the 90's and the long and extended fall from grace it has seen sence. More patience - as a long suffering shareholder of this poorly managed, poor returning company who seems to be more interested in Michael Dell's personal agenda than executing sound business decisions, I think what Dell shareholders need is more valium.

Netflix: High Flier or Falling Star?

<<And since the company’s costs are relatively fixed, much of the revenue from these additional subscribers flowed directly to the bottom line.>>

Not sure how you arrived at this conclusion. Each new sub is not more profitable than prior subs. Their SAC cost is fixed - per - sub, but therefore is variable, and their content licensing and fulfillment costs are also variable based on the number of movies watched. While their G&A expenses are largely fixed, this represents a smaller portion of their overall expense base.

Coinstar and Netflix: Two Shorts on Movie Rentals

I also think the NFLX is due for a correction, but not for the reasons you state. NFLX's plans are roughly equally profitable regardless of the X-out status due to corresponding usage, so if subscribers reduce their plans due to discretionary spending cutbacks, their earnings should remain intact. While some may cancel all together, NFLX actually saw strong sub adds in the last quarter, as people moved away from dining out, going out, to home entertainment. I believe this trend will continue.

With regards to the online competition, your comment....

"Their moat will disappear quickly, as giants such as Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Hulu and Blockbuster move into the arena"

...is a a little off-base. First, each of these players are ALREADY in this space, and in the case of AMZN and AAPL, have been for some time. This has not slowed the growth in NFLX. These other players still have to work out a decent revenue / pricing model. As a NFLX sub, I get free access to the online content with my sub, rather than paying / view with the others.

Having said that, I think that growth will slow due to less "new" subscribers, and that a miss on topline revenue may be waiting, as people reduce their plans. IMO, this will cause the correction.

Vonage Loses Subscribers but Does Anyone Care?

Perhaps the largest opportunity here is for an acquisition by Verizon or one of the other telcos. At this level, and with the current assets/debt, it may be an attractive target. I don't see a cableco buying it because of the distribution of their customers, but with 2.6 million subscribers, that's a decent revenue stream that could be acquired.

Novell vs. Red Hat: The Battle for Software Partners

Red Hat seems to struggle on how to deal with partners. My own experiences have direct relevence. My firm provides solutions to large organizations in emerging economies - where Red Hat claims to have a large part of their strategy focused. I was clearly able to articulate what I needed from Red Hat as a partner, and they were completely unable to get organized around it. While I'm a Red Hat shareholder, and have followed them closely since 1999, I think they have reached the size where they are losing touch with their partner base.

Lack of DISH Ruling Disappoints TiVo Holders

If you want a better perspective, check out the investor boards at fool and investor village. Both of those had people who actually WENT to the hearing yesterday and can give you a perspective on what was said and the general demenaor of the judge.

While each of the items mentioned by the analysts COULD happen, IMO the judge just wants to be seen to have considered this matter carefully, given that E* has said they want this to be heard by the Supreme Coury (unlikely). We should have a ruling within 2-3 weeks, and personally I will be adding to my position at these prices in anticipation of a positive ruling for TIVO.

E-Trade Financial Carries High Risk-Reward

OK - I'll bite....While I am a frustrated LONG position holder in E-Trade at the moment, I really don't buy your analysis. Your statement that "With all the wrong moves, there is hardly anything else that it can do wrong."

Well....actually there is PLENTY else it can do wrong, and probably continues to do so:

1. Not apply the right focus to customer service. I closed 6 accounts with E-Trade last summer because of their horrible customer service and policies.

2. Continue the same path that brought them into the mess in the first place. While I've seen plenty of talk from them about focusing on their core business, and I'll admit they've been prudent about managing their exposure, I've seen very little news in the past 6 months that demonstrates anything BUT the status quo.

3. Fail to realize the extent of their problem. While they are busy sorting out their mess, the market is not standing still. Other online discount brokers continue to increase the quality of their service and in the main, offer lower/competitive fees. E-Trade runs a very real risk that they will emerge from this mess and no one will care.

Personally, I'm betting on a price just south of $5 in the next 6 months, but this company still stands a very real change of going out of business or being acquired....

Countering the AP's 'E*Trade Financial Earnings Preview'

Cindy, Occasionally in the past, I have criticized your articles for not having enough substance to support your position. Well done on this one - whether or not people agree with you - this was well researched, well presented and clearly separated quantitative analysis from qualatative. I enjoyed reading and thanks for posting.

YouTube Coming to TiVo, But Only for Under 750,000 Users

"And out of those 750,000, how many are connected to a broadband connection and not just a phone line? I know of many friends who have a Series 3 but only connect to a phone jack..."

Hardly a scientific analysis. I agree that this is good for Tivo, but with the many different types of content enabled for the Series 3, I think the proportion of the 750K is much higher than you think. Also, consider that the 750K is only going to go higher, while the users upgrade to the latest platform - particularly with the prices for the Series 3 continuing to drop.

AMD: Chipping Away at Intel

Ockham Research is far from anonymous. They have a website, contact info available on that website and fully describe what they do and what their philosophy is. Just bother to click on one of the links on the left, and you will get all you need.

As to the article, I don't see that they are saying "all is right" - but more that "it is getting better", and that they see price appreciation opportunities. Instead of bashing them, feel free to write your own artciles refuting their analysis....

Sony's Latest Play for Your Living Room

"None of these have really taken off--largely because each option only has a sliver of content."

On what basis do you believe they have not taken off? From tracking order numbers, we know that the Netflix Roku box sold over 50,000 units within 2-3 weeks, and it is believed they sold over 100,000 before they hit supply difficulties. They have ~ 10,000 titles ready for instant viewing on your TV at no additional cost to the NFLX subscription. I don't call that a "sliver" of content.

Having said that, I agree Sony is late to the game here, and the PS3 has not sold that well, so this may be too little, too late. However, I do think it is a good, strong move to make.

Citadel Infuses E*Trade with Strong, Experienced Management

I'd agree with manohmanoh on this one. Cindy - your articles are generally reasonably well balanced, but this one definitely feels like a "pump". Drawing direct correlations between Citadel hiring someone to manage the securities they acquired and it translating into direct benefit for E-Trade is a stretch at best. Most of these transactions tend to be managed by completely different groups, with different focus areas. I'd be surprised if there was anything more than cursory discussions between Bill King and the E-Trade management team.

Also, your rebuttal to theory #2 just does not hold water. Wall St may be short-sighted, but having worked there for 15+ years, I can tell you they don't invest millions of dollars in a company they don't even realize the sector for, and they are WELL AWARE of what type of company E-Trade is.

That said, I'm also long ETFC, so believe the shorts are wrong - but not for the reasons you mention. Also, given the narrow trading range for this stock over the past few months, I would expect to see some covering of positions rather than a huge squeeze....Still I could (and often am) wrong.

E*Trade: Hindsight with Binoculars

I'm long E-Trade, but this article is a bit of a stretch....in particular:

"but the fact that the company has had a management facelift would be a more compelling reason to believe that a turnaround is in progress ahead of expectations. "

I don't think we have seen much of a facelift. Although the CEO has changed, the general counsel and CFO resigned - with no clear succession plan. If they had been "asked" to resign, there would have been a clearer plan in place, rather than just "interim" appointments.

Although the Street is tough for employment at the moment, I think the potential exodus of talent is going to be one of the bigger risks to the company. The last thing they need in the middle of a turnaround plan is institutional knowledge walking out the door.

Why the E*Trade Shorts Have It Wrong

Wow. I came here to post a comment on the original article, and saw that passions are inflamed regarding this stock. Personally, I'm in the "it will recover" camp, but I do see a significant degree of risk to this opinion. Anyway, I have 2 issues with the original article:

"...stocks traded on a variety of global stock exchanges in local currencies. That strategy should become highly accretive to earnings once it gets more widely adopted. "

Have you seen any evidence of that? In my experience (working in the Financial industry), the instititutional investors (not E-Trade's market) are only just waking up to the possibility of international trading, and most U.S. individual investors are still happy making their "offshore" investments via mutual funds, ETF's etc - also not E-Trade's market. Personally, I don't see this being anymore than a footnote in the revenue numbers for the next 12-24 months at least.

I also take issue with the "...actually a positive rather than a negative as I expect a wave of recommendation upgrades in this name that will send the shorts panicking for the exits" comment. On exactly what grounds does the author expect the upgrade? Frankly, I would be surprised if any analyst was willing to stick their neck out to make an upgrade until the full impact of the current recession is known and the impact of mortgage defaults have fully worked through the system.

How’s TiVo’s Turnaround?

"In January, it won $94 million in a patent dispute with EchoStar or Dish Network".

To be clear the number now is probably much higher. The $94 million were the damages awarded at the time of the original judgement. Damages continue to accrue while the company remains in infringement. If this is adjudicated rather than settled, many people expect the new number to be > $180-$200 million.