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Aurelien

Aurelien
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  • Equal Energy: Broken Management And A Broken Board [View article]
    This valuation is a joke; I don't understand why we aren't getting a premium from the closing price when the announcement was made.
    Dec 10 10:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biglari Holdings, Inc: Sardar Biglari - Bet The Jockey Part VIII [View article]
    Perhaps Dana just chooses to let his story speak for him Alan. I'm willing to get into a discussion with you regarding your questions to him though. Post away.
    Apr 17 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biglari Holdings, Inc: Sardar Biglari - Bet The Jockey Part VIII [View article]
    Watch,

    I believe he has to hold each share purchase for at least 3 years. Personally, I don't think we will need to worry about him selling shares for a long time unless he was somehow ousted from power. I think Biglari wants to follow in Buffet's footsteps, which will involve him slowly gaining a significant minority of the company as he makes new purchases each year.

    I believe that the main reason he's extremely concentrated is because it gives him the ability to really focus on companies where he sees significant value creation possible. Personally I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, because his track record speaks for itself. I'm sure there will be a mistake at some point, but that has to be expected. I also expect that as BH get bigger, the position concentration will shrink.

    Regarding the management of the companies Sardar is investing in; I think that over time we will see a more hands off approach. I think that this will start occurring when market valuations become more attractive in general (eg the stock market drops substantially). Right now I think Sardar is seeing the most value in situations where management is mismanaging their assets, and thus he is coming in and telling them that they are doing a terrible job, which obviously doesn't endear him to them (especially since he's only 35, 20 years younger then most of those people).

    At some point managers will start to realize that maybe this guy has some good ideas and start to be willing to implement them, rather then fight him. He'll be able to keep them around rather then fight them and we will all be happier.
    Apr 15 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biglari Holdings, Inc: Sardar Biglari - Bet The Jockey Part VIII [View article]
    You are not completely correct in your assessments Watch. Remember that Sardar is required to purchase shares in BH with 50% of his after tax compensation. Thus if he doesn't increase book value by at least 6%/year over time, not only will he not get any bonus, the stock will not increase, or even go down if his investments don't perform. Thus his incentives are very closely linked with ours as shareholders in the long run.
    What I find interesting is that if BH stock was up 25% this year like book value was, I doubt any stockholders would be complaining about the compensation Sardar received.
    Apr 14 03:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biglari Holdings, Inc: Sardar Biglari - Bet The Jockey Part I [View article]
    What are the facts Froyo?
    Apr 11 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biglari Holdings, Inc: Sardar Biglari - Bet The Jockey Part VIII [View article]
    Great ending to an excellent series of articles Dana. I hadn't properly understood some of BHs balance sheet details under this last post.
    Mar 20 05:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biglari Holdings, Inc: Sardar Biglari - Bet The Jockey Part VI [View article]
    Biglari has generated a nice profit for himself and investors in every single large position he's taken, so I'm not sure why you don't like him. Anyone thats been with him for more then the last 2 years has done extremely well, and the stock really should be higher right now then it is.
    Mar 14 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biglari Holdings, Inc: Sardar Biglari - Bet The Jockey Part II [View article]
    I would also argue that the value of BH is much higher today then it was 2 years ago. Just because the market isn't paying for it doesn't mean its not there.
    Mar 7 04:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biglari Holdings, Inc: Sardar Biglari - Bet The Jockey Part I [View article]
    Great initial post! I've been following Sardar's story for about 4 years now and owned some SNS a few years back. I wish I'd kept those shares and added to them instead of selling for a small profit at $9 (pre reverse split). I've been tracking them again carefully recently as I would like to buy back in.

    A comment on your post: I would love to be able to view the two charts but even when you click on them to expand they are too small. Could you reload them in a bigger size. Thanks!
    Mar 6 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Energy: Broken Management And A Broken Board [View article]
    Hi Nawar,

    Another nice article from you. If you have 30% of shareholders behind you, it seems that we should be able to vote you into a board position. What is the current criteria for being nominated for the vote coming up at the annual meeting?

    In the meantime, I don't mind picking up some more shares at these levels and locking in almost 7% dividend.
    Jan 15 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China North East Petroleum Is Another Opportunity To Make A Fortune [View article]
    Why does this seem so unusual to you? The former Shengyuan shareholders were able to exchange their property for a 16% stake in NEP. If the field is developed out like NEP plans to do, then the stock will likely be worth much more then $51m.
    Feb 10 04:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Energy: An Unparalleled Opportunity [View article]
    Very interesting article Nawar, I will have to take a closer look at this.
    Nov 2 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China North East Petroleum: MBO Or Multi-Year Profit Growth A Win-Win [View article]
    I guess you must have conveniently missed this press release:
    http://yhoo.it/rLbjj5

    The lawsuits against NEP have been dropped because they were without merit.
    Nov 1 01:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Bigfish right or wrong about NEP. Is NEP really a fraud? I don't think so! [View instapost]
    The new CFO is young and has gone to school in the U of California system, so obviously he has been speaking English a lot more then the others at the company. But I was not overly impressed with his English either listening to the CC, which led me to believe that he is actually from China and came here for college. You may very well be right though.
    The thing with most young people is that while they may be quite qualified for the job, they may not be as comfortable speaking in public situations, especially if English is their 2nd language. At my university there were a lot of foreign students in my accounting classes who were extremely intelligent and spoke quite well when in one on one situations, but then got very nervous when making presentations in front of the group.

    By waiting for "institutional investors" to buy back in, you are giving up the largest gains in an effort to feel "safer" about buying the stock. I would much rather take a risk on a stock that I feel is undervalued before they arrive, so that I enjoy the price appreciation when they buy in.

    @Bigfish: I realize that you may still be short and thus need to present everything in the worst light possible. But to be fair to investors you should have pointed out that no company funds were found to be lost in the "inappropriate transactions" done by the CEO which led to his resignation. In fact, the CEO transferred funds between company and personal accounts to pay for various company expenses. This is something that many small business owners do all the time. This doesn't exonerate him because he should know that as a public company things need to be done a certain way, but I believe that the CEO meant no harm, and the audit agreed.

    I understand why you are bringing up all the negatives on NEP, since you are trying to make money off being short NEP. I already know about all the negatives you are bringing up (although I had not caught the two discrepancies in the filings, so I'm happy that you brought my attention to them), and I'm willing to risk my money that NEP is legit.

    If this company is a fraud, I will likely lose 100% of the money I invested in it. But if it isn't and they complete the purchase of the Durimu production rights, then I think that in 5 years the stock can be at $30+.

    As long as my perceived odds of the company being a fraud are less then 80%, then this speculation has a positive expected outcome.
    Apr 16 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Bigfish right or wrong about NEP. Is NEP really a fraud? I don't think so! [View instapost]
    Buying any stock or for that matter any asset is a gamble on some level. You think all the people buying homes in 2006 thought they were gambling with their money? They assumed hosues were going to keep going up because they always did, until they didn't.

    Of course there is a risk NEP is a fraud, but I think that risk is only 10-15% and the upside if it isn't is more then worth the risk.
    Apr 15 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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