It Figures's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/146136/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/176268-bofa-to-repay-tarp-but-all-is-not-settled?source=feed#comment-787948 787948 Thu, 03 Dec 2009 06:16:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171034-keynesian-economics-why-krugman-and-delong-need-to-read-more-carefully?source=feed#comment-744971 744971 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:19:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162767-dodd-s-push-for-regulatory-reform-has-unintended-consequences?source=feed#comment-687433 687433
You don't get to stay in the Senate as long as he has by screwing your donors, or playing it straight with the voters.]]> Wed, 23 Sep 2009 10:02:35 -0400
You don't get to stay in the Senate as long as he has by screwing your donors, or playing it straight with the voters.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161813-does-true-competition-among-credit-card-issuers-exist?source=feed#comment-681191 681191
Given that most credit card issuers are losing money right now, and have for the last year or so, it is hard to characterize the sector as lacking competition in any economic sense.

Folks would benefit from trying to separate their personal "beefs" with these companies from their economic/investment analysis]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 15:06:43 -0400
Given that most credit card issuers are losing money right now, and have for the last year or so, it is hard to characterize the sector as lacking competition in any economic sense.

Folks would benefit from trying to separate their personal "beefs" with these companies from their economic/investment analysis]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161682-not-even-delinquencies-inspire-capital-one-financial-shorts?source=feed#comment-678896 678896
Investing isn't about what you feel should be. I'ts about what is.]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 09:45:19 -0400
Investing isn't about what you feel should be. I'ts about what is.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155848-fiscal-stimulus-the-evidence-based-view-as-opposed-to-the-keynesian-view?source=feed#comment-629284 629284
It was October, before the election, that Buffett publicly said buy stocks. Many others did as well. Do you think they didn't know a recovery was around the corner, well before we even elected a President, much less any talk of size or shape of a stimulus package?


As for the argument that it must work because everyone is doing it - is that a joke? Politicians spend money, whether they have it or not, because that's what they do. Show us some instances of when they DON'T spend and you will be more persuasive.


This recovery is what standard business cycle theory, and automatic stabilizers, are all about. Downturns are followed by upturns, stimulus or not.

Did the stimulus influence the upturn? Probably. Did it cause it? Not proved.]]> Thu, 13 Aug 2009 23:26:50 -0400
It was October, before the election, that Buffett publicly said buy stocks. Many others did as well. Do you think they didn't know a recovery was around the corner, well before we even elected a President, much less any talk of size or shape of a stimulus package?


As for the argument that it must work because everyone is doing it - is that a joke? Politicians spend money, whether they have it or not, because that's what they do. Show us some instances of when they DON'T spend and you will be more persuasive.


This recovery is what standard business cycle theory, and automatic stabilizers, are all about. Downturns are followed by upturns, stimulus or not.

Did the stimulus influence the upturn? Probably. Did it cause it? Not proved.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155130-credit-conditions-in-the-absence-of-consumer-protection?source=feed#comment-624754 624754
If I pay late all the time and you don't, we have decidedly different costs. The "APR" , by your measure, would be maybe 42% for me, but only 8% for you. So would you average these two results to decide the APR on this product is 25%? Ridiculous.

What you are missing is that CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR DETERMINES THE CHARGES, not some secret and mysterious credit card company conspiracy.

If you want credit users to pay less, support efforts to help them protect themselves from themselves. Disclosure is a good first step. Your idea is not.]]> Tue, 11 Aug 2009 10:30:44 -0400
If I pay late all the time and you don't, we have decidedly different costs. The "APR" , by your measure, would be maybe 42% for me, but only 8% for you. So would you average these two results to decide the APR on this product is 25%? Ridiculous.

What you are missing is that CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR DETERMINES THE CHARGES, not some secret and mysterious credit card company conspiracy.

If you want credit users to pay less, support efforts to help them protect themselves from themselves. Disclosure is a good first step. Your idea is not.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154889-healthcare-tax-what-s-going-on-here?source=feed#comment-621842 621842
Why not give some thought to blaming the actual people in Congress and the Administration today who are attempting to impose this monstrosity on us.

Most economists understand and agree taxes are ultimately paid by consumers regardless of where they are imposed. This is Econ. 101.

It would be very useful if a well known, respected, liberal leaning economist such as yourself would LOUDLY raise your voice against this charade. If the nation truly wants these programs, so be it. But don't let the politicians get away with trying to trick the unsuspecting into thinking we taxpayers are not picking up the check.]]> Sun, 09 Aug 2009 10:53:42 -0400
Why not give some thought to blaming the actual people in Congress and the Administration today who are attempting to impose this monstrosity on us.

Most economists understand and agree taxes are ultimately paid by consumers regardless of where they are imposed. This is Econ. 101.

It would be very useful if a well known, respected, liberal leaning economist such as yourself would LOUDLY raise your voice against this charade. If the nation truly wants these programs, so be it. But don't let the politicians get away with trying to trick the unsuspecting into thinking we taxpayers are not picking up the check.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154913-tracking-the-odds-of-positive-economic-growth-in-q309?source=feed#comment-621821 621821
This is nothing more than a measure of current sentiment. It tells us nothing about the future.

This index will be accurate as long as in-place trends continue, but wrong at turning points, as it was in March.

It is virtually guaranteed to be wrong the next time real GDP turns negative again, whenever that is.]]> Sun, 09 Aug 2009 10:38:50 -0400
This is nothing more than a measure of current sentiment. It tells us nothing about the future.

This index will be accurate as long as in-place trends continue, but wrong at turning points, as it was in March.

It is virtually guaranteed to be wrong the next time real GDP turns negative again, whenever that is.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139356-lower-credit-card-fees-lower-credit-card-profits?source=feed#comment-517124 517124
Good job, Washington!]]> Mon, 25 May 2009 17:50:58 -0400
Good job, Washington!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137776-30-year-fixed-mortgage-rates-remain-low-as-10-year-treasury-yield-climbs?source=feed#comment-505443 505443
There is good money to be made in mortgage lending today, with spreads wide and (new loan) credit quality better than in many, many years. Just look at Q1 mortgage origination profitability at the big mortgage players - JPM, BAC, WFC, etc.The wipe-out of the "crazies" over the last few years has signicantly changed the competitive landscape.]]> Fri, 15 May 2009 12:42:02 -0400
There is good money to be made in mortgage lending today, with spreads wide and (new loan) credit quality better than in many, many years. Just look at Q1 mortgage origination profitability at the big mortgage players - JPM, BAC, WFC, etc.The wipe-out of the "crazies" over the last few years has signicantly changed the competitive landscape.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137571-treasury-accepts-lowball-price-for-tarp-warrants?source=feed#comment-504207 504207
And exactly why should the banks that neither wanted nor needed govt. money be required to "open their books" to these bungling power grabbers?

In what world is it justified for the govt. to come in uninvited to dictate terms to private companies, thus robbing shareholders of value?

For those REQUESTING help, certainly the govt. has a right to know the details. But for those resisting gov.t "help", like Wells, GS, State Street, etc., they have no right whatsoever.]]> Thu, 14 May 2009 15:22:57 -0400
And exactly why should the banks that neither wanted nor needed govt. money be required to "open their books" to these bungling power grabbers?

In what world is it justified for the govt. to come in uninvited to dictate terms to private companies, thus robbing shareholders of value?

For those REQUESTING help, certainly the govt. has a right to know the details. But for those resisting gov.t "help", like Wells, GS, State Street, etc., they have no right whatsoever.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136274-adding-to-capital-one-financial-short-position-gotta-love-the-stress-test?source=feed#comment-494775 494775
You would do much better, I think, shorting some of the past 6 month's winners that are now pretty tired and are not participating in this rally.]]> Thu, 07 May 2009 19:48:41 -0400
You would do much better, I think, shorting some of the past 6 month's winners that are now pretty tired and are not participating in this rally.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132965-capital-one-defies-even-constanza-logic?source=feed#comment-476557 476557 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 19:30:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129774-krugman-vs-sachs-on-ppip-loopholes?source=feed#comment-454051 454051 Mon, 06 Apr 2009 18:03:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129334-what-created-market-misunderstandings-about-lamar-advertising?source=feed#comment-451941 451941
While I'm sure there are some who came to their negative conclusions based on these factors, you may be underestimating the more human aspects. There are a great many so called investors who simply can't get beyond Q1 revenues feared to be down 15%, especially when accompanied by "questions" about LAMR possibly violating covenants. In other words, fear and momentum are as important these days as fundamentals in understanding recent performance.

You obviously did your homework. Thank you.

And for the record, I think "billboard guy" nailed it as well.]]> Sat, 04 Apr 2009 21:07:42 -0400
While I'm sure there are some who came to their negative conclusions based on these factors, you may be underestimating the more human aspects. There are a great many so called investors who simply can't get beyond Q1 revenues feared to be down 15%, especially when accompanied by "questions" about LAMR possibly violating covenants. In other words, fear and momentum are as important these days as fundamentals in understanding recent performance.

You obviously did your homework. Thank you.

And for the record, I think "billboard guy" nailed it as well.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128248-are-citi-bank-of-america-pushing-prices-up?source=feed#comment-442495 442495
First, in a market with thousands of participants involving trillions of dollars, a single institution buying a few tens or hundreds of millions of securities doesn't move the needle.

Second, with the feds promising to finance, almost for free, private speculators to buy this paper "to remove toxic assets from the banking industry's balance sheet" in the popular terminology, how can it be bad in any way if a private entity puts it's own capital on the line in an attempt to acquire assets it deems undervalued.

Third, the author has no concept of what "insider trading" means. These banks have been telling the world that the current market prices are nuts, and are now acting on their analysis, for their own profit. Yes, they probably have better insight into the economic value of these securities, because they own similar paper and know first hand the cash flow and prepayment behavior, but this information is readily available to market participants, and the banks have made no secret of their opinions. That's why they carry them on their books at the values they do.

This is exactly what the dozens of government programs are hoping to accomplish.

]]> Fri, 27 Mar 2009 12:05:29 -0400
First, in a market with thousands of participants involving trillions of dollars, a single institution buying a few tens or hundreds of millions of securities doesn't move the needle.

Second, with the feds promising to finance, almost for free, private speculators to buy this paper "to remove toxic assets from the banking industry's balance sheet" in the popular terminology, how can it be bad in any way if a private entity puts it's own capital on the line in an attempt to acquire assets it deems undervalued.

Third, the author has no concept of what "insider trading" means. These banks have been telling the world that the current market prices are nuts, and are now acting on their analysis, for their own profit. Yes, they probably have better insight into the economic value of these securities, because they own similar paper and know first hand the cash flow and prepayment behavior, but this information is readily available to market participants, and the banks have made no secret of their opinions. That's why they carry them on their books at the values they do.

This is exactly what the dozens of government programs are hoping to accomplish.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128189-the-650-billion-leasing-industry-has-dramatically-changed?source=feed#comment-442312 442312 Fri, 27 Mar 2009 10:27:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127708-ppif-a-step-in-the-right-direction-but-not-a-cure-all?source=feed#comment-439666 439666
Bair mentioned the other day that such desicions would be made "in consultation" with regulators. Being that bank and regulator objectives and motivations differ significantly, and that the regulators hold all the power in the relationship at the moment(via the "stress test"), this could be a bad thing for banks seen to be vulnerable - whether they actually are or not.]]> Wed, 25 Mar 2009 11:35:23 -0400
Bair mentioned the other day that such desicions would be made "in consultation" with regulators. Being that bank and regulator objectives and motivations differ significantly, and that the regulators hold all the power in the relationship at the moment(via the "stress test"), this could be a bad thing for banks seen to be vulnerable - whether they actually are or not.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118661-good-news-points-to-recession-s-end-by-july?source=feed#comment-377097 377097 Thu, 05 Feb 2009 12:09:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112836-2008-performance-of-stocks-oil-dollar-long-bond?source=feed#comment-343221 343221
Think before you click.]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 08:58:54 -0500
Think before you click.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111999-bank-of-america-optimism-is-unwarranted?source=feed#comment-336483 336483
Where do you see optimism in BAC's price, estimates, P/E, yield or analyst commentary? Market is profoundly pessimistic on BAC presently.

This post simply reiterates the widespread popular opinion.]]> Tue, 23 Dec 2008 09:06:22 -0500
Where do you see optimism in BAC's price, estimates, P/E, yield or analyst commentary? Market is profoundly pessimistic on BAC presently.

This post simply reiterates the widespread popular opinion.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112033-15-key-types-of-bond-etfs-2008-review?source=feed#comment-336426 336426
Second, are these based on total return numbers, or strictly the price return on the ETF? It would seem with these especially, periodic payments count.

Thanks]]> Tue, 23 Dec 2008 08:15:40 -0500
Second, are these based on total return numbers, or strictly the price return on the ETF? It would seem with these especially, periodic payments count.

Thanks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111831-why-are-mortgage-rates-so-high?source=feed#comment-335510 335510
Should these re-writes become standard, all historic loss and recovery rules of thumb will become useless, and lender recoveries-in-default will decline. The way lenders protect themselves against this possibility is to further widen spreads against their cost of funds, to accommodate likely larger future loss/incident costs.

"Helping" today's struggling borrowers this way raises mortgage rates for all future borrowers. When policy changes increase lender losses, alert lenders - the only kind left- naturally build in fatter cushions to protect themselves and their profitability. ]]> Mon, 22 Dec 2008 08:21:49 -0500
Should these re-writes become standard, all historic loss and recovery rules of thumb will become useless, and lender recoveries-in-default will decline. The way lenders protect themselves against this possibility is to further widen spreads against their cost of funds, to accommodate likely larger future loss/incident costs.

"Helping" today's struggling borrowers this way raises mortgage rates for all future borrowers. When policy changes increase lender losses, alert lenders - the only kind left- naturally build in fatter cushions to protect themselves and their profitability. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103518-pc-makers-face-netbook-peril-barron-s?source=feed#comment-296688 296688 I think her concerns are excessively negative and much too short term oriented. While the readers of this service probably don't blink at paying $1000+ for a computer, millions in the US, and tens or hundreds of millions around the world, do. This will explode the units sold, albeit at thinner margins, but inteligently managed, should be very profitable. Think Wal-Mart(low margins/big volume) rather than Neiman-Marcus.

This post reminds me of Detroit's decision to stick with producing SUV's and pick-up trucks, with big per unit profits, instead of embracing smaller, more fuel efficient models, due to their thinner margins. The customer decides in the end, and couldn't care less about your "need" for margin.

If DELL and HP fail to join in (DELL is in already, don't know about HP) customers will just buy from someone else. Management's job is to first get the product right, and then get the costs right. This is the right product, for the times and for the world. Hoping the trend goes away is for fools.]]> Sun, 02 Nov 2008 19:53:14 -0500 I think her concerns are excessively negative and much too short term oriented. While the readers of this service probably don't blink at paying $1000+ for a computer, millions in the US, and tens or hundreds of millions around the world, do. This will explode the units sold, albeit at thinner margins, but inteligently managed, should be very profitable. Think Wal-Mart(low margins/big volume) rather than Neiman-Marcus.

This post reminds me of Detroit's decision to stick with producing SUV's and pick-up trucks, with big per unit profits, instead of embracing smaller, more fuel efficient models, due to their thinner margins. The customer decides in the end, and couldn't care less about your "need" for margin.

If DELL and HP fail to join in (DELL is in already, don't know about HP) customers will just buy from someone else. Management's job is to first get the product right, and then get the costs right. This is the right product, for the times and for the world. Hoping the trend goes away is for fools.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101346-steak-n-shake-preparing-for-tasty-cash-flows?source=feed#comment-288529 288529
Nothing wrong with loving the product, but that, plus a few random data points lacking any context, is not sufficient analysis.]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 09:07:18 -0400
Nothing wrong with loving the product, but that, plus a few random data points lacking any context, is not sufficient analysis.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101403-five-ways-the-global-economy-is-rebounding?source=feed#comment-288511 288511
But seeing around corners is what this is all about, isn't it? Good observations.]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 08:50:18 -0400
But seeing around corners is what this is all about, isn't it? Good observations.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100904-moody-s-sees-stress-on-credit-card-industry-through-2009?source=feed#comment-288352 288352 Wed, 22 Oct 2008 23:44:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100904-moody-s-sees-stress-on-credit-card-industry-through-2009?source=feed#comment-288350 288350 Wed, 22 Oct 2008 23:39:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/65847-morningstar-on-munis-what-kind-of-credit-crisis-is-this?source=feed#comment-118637 118637
You make some interesting points, and have some good insights, but they are off the point of the Morningstar story. If all the monolines disappear tomorrow, muni default rates will probably perform as the underlying credit ratings imply. And on that basis, the credits are cheap.]]> Mon, 25 Feb 2008 08:11:31 -0500
You make some interesting points, and have some good insights, but they are off the point of the Morningstar story. If all the monolines disappear tomorrow, muni default rates will probably perform as the underlying credit ratings imply. And on that basis, the credits are cheap.]]>