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    • First Marblehead Fights to Free Itself from Credit Market Whims [view article]
      Interesting article and analysis. The Savings bank must be providing a temporary haven for loan origination, however, it's capital base is insufficient to allow FMD to return to the origination volume that used to drive it's eranings. Further, the allowance for loan losses on Union's balance sheet is probably way low for the losses that the student loan portfolio will eventually show. Just look at the delinquincies revealed in the company's disclosures of it's securitization trusts (in Jan). That's probably why the T-1 capital has been raised so high at the savings bank. I agree that Goldie is probably helping to direct brokered deposits (a.k.a. Hot Money) to the savings bank. In my opinion, it's a good TEMPORARY tactic to gain some time, however, if the capital markets don't open up eveneually, FMD unfortunately will probably not make it. Finally, I thought the CapitalSource-Fremont deal cratered. I could be wrong, or do I have my faxed mixed up with the ier One acquisition? May 26 09:55 AM
    • Why I'm Not Long Downey Financial [view article]
      Excellent analysis! KPMG is forcing Downey to account for the restructured loans as "TDR's". Further attempts to address the increasing delinquencies will only bloat the NAL levels more. While a portion will cure, the rising tide may overwhelm the earnings base. A significant writedown of the portfolio will cause a large erosion in capital, as the allowance for loan losses is now just a fraction of the non-performing levels. While the bank has about 700 million of capital in excess of regulatory minimums, it's not beyond the realm of possibility to see that floor challanged. Jan 31 11:48 AM
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