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    • Sun Mar 16th 17:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Estimating KSW at 40% Below Fair Valuation
      You say: TT had 34% less revenues and 47% less net income.

      Reality is:
      - Reports fourth-quarter income per diluted share from continuing operations of 32 cents; 33 cents on an adjusted basis, up 27 percent
      - Delivers 14.2 percent increase in fourth-quarter sales, up 10.2 percent for the year

      Additionally:
      - Net income growth of 14% for 2007
      - Provides 2008 full-year outlook: sales up 5-6 percent, income from continuing operations up 18-26 percent, adjusted income from continuing operations up 21-28 percent
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 17:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Estimating KSW at 40% Below Fair Valuation
      KSW simply spent no money on SG&A in the last quarter of 2007 to achieve your 32% net income growth. They saved $1 million - more than the entire amount of the growth you've claimed. They spent about $1 million less on SG&A than the prior 3 quarters. Had they spent what they usually spend, they would have been marginally profitable, or possibly even posted a loss for the quarter. That is not something to be proud of, nor a reason to go flaunting that the company has been successful in increasing the bottom line. I might even be inclined to think that there may have been a bit of manipulation on their part, seeing that Q4 was going to be weak, reducing that SG&A would be the only way they could prevent a loss, or not being able to show the increase in net income for the year.

      From 2005 to 2006 revenues increased 40%, almost $25 million, yet the bottom line was flat. You ignore that fact, but are getting excited about increasing the bottom line less than $1 million on flat revenues?

      TT and JCI are not "comparable" competitors as they are multi-billion dollar corporations - not a company that can disappear next year if the wind blows in the wrong direction.

      Your numbers on FIX are also incorrect. Over the last FY, FIX had about 5% increase in revenues and about 13% increase in net income. They increased revenues every quarter of the year, and the only reason why earnings were down in the final quarter of 2007 was because they spent more on SG&A - most likely to acquire new business and continue increasing revenues going forward. FIX top and bottom line growth numbers are very impressive over the past few years (much more so than KSW's).

      I wonder what the effect of decreasing SG&A to almost nothing in one quarter will be as we see KSW revenue numbers for the next couple quarters?

      Regarding TT - clearly you have no idea what you are talking about and have done absolutely nothing other than reading top and bottom line numbers off the Yahoo income statement page. If you had done any real investigation you might have noticed the following link and the information regarding the spinoffs which took place - there wasn't a 34% drop in revenues as your 90 seconds of "research" indicates. In fact, revenues increased 14.2% in the final quarter, and 10.2% for the year.

      biz.yahoo.com/prnews/0...

      On Feb. 1, 2007, Trane, then known as American Standard Companies, announced plans to separate its three businesses. On July 31, 2007, the company completed the spinoff of its Vehicle Control Systems business as an independent company known as WABCO (NYSE: WBC - News). On Oct. 31, 2007, the company sold its Bath and Kitchen business to funds advised by Bain Capital Partners, LLC. On Nov. 28, 2007, the company changed its name to Trane to reflect its focus on its remaining business, Air Conditioning Systems and Services. On Dec. 17, 2007, the company announced that it had entered into an agreement to be acquired by Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited (NYSE: IR - News).

      "Doesn't this mean it merits a higher P/E than the competitors rather than a 35% lower one?"

      Since the information you added is completely wrong, as all of the "comparable" competitors have shown top and bottom line increases every year, in addition to the fact that the only way KSW showed this amazing 32% increase in net income was be eliminating SG&A for a quarter, I'd have to say the answer to your question is no - KSW does not warrant a higher P/E than these others.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 13:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Estimating KSW at 40% Below Fair Valuation
      When the CEO begins buying shares, I'll take that to mean the stock is undervalued. Until then, it is overvalued. Actions speak much louder than words.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 09:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      DryShips Deserves More Love
      Two years ago this was a $10 stock. A year ago it was a $20 stock. The company has so many transparency issues it is a joke. This is nothing more than one of Cramer's pumps and the "market kids" as DRYS realist puts it, bid the stock up way beyond any reasonable price. PE of 3? Please - that's based on the earnings they spoon feed the gullible folks - and clearly there's enough that actually believe it.

      You will see the stock track back to $20 and even to $10. And once they announce the restatement in earnings, or heaven forbid the loss, you'll see it trade even lower.

      Who the hell even talked about "dry bulk shippers" before Cramer filled your head with such garbage?

      Wait, wait...I'm having a flashback...ACLN/ASW..... something is too good to be true...it generally is. Some folks here will learn the hard way.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 16th 09:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Estimating KSW at 40% Below Fair Valuation
      When the CEO sells shares continually for 2 years, regardless of the reason, that sends a clear message to the market. How he can now come out now and say the stock is undervalued is laughable. "I stopped selling, now the stock is undervalued". When he began selling the stock 2 years ago, the price was under $4/share. Now, with a decline in year over year quarterly earnings and his sales completed he thinks the stock is undervalued? Again, laughable.

      The homebuilders told us for the better part of 2 years that everything in their businesses were just fine and we can all keep drinking the Kool Aid. I see little difference with this company and statements made.

      The author also appears extremely biased being long the stock. His "estimated fair valuation of $9.72" is nothing more than that - an estimate, one which he has provided absolutely no insight how it was arrived at.

      Until mid 2005, this was a $1 stock. A year later, when the CEO began his selling, it was then a $3.60 stock. That should be a clear indicator of what point the CEO thought the stock was fairly/overvalued. The growth in the company/stock appears to have merely tracked the housing/building boom since. Revenues for 2007 are flat with 2006, and the December quarterly sales number is down 15% from September - that would be the indicator to what happens in the next year or two to me. You bail out when cracks begin to apear, not when the company finally later confirms to you that things are not so rosy. The yearly income growth is attributable to nothing more than cost cutting. The "record backlog", as with the homebuilders, can have cancellations. Not a single analyst covers the company/stock because it is valued at under $40 million - who wastes his time on something so small?

      The flat revenue figure for 2007 compared to 2006 is the key point here. The jump from 2005 to 2006 simply tracked the building spurt across the sector.

      Now that the CEO stock sales are complete (the press release Friday to tell the world was amateurish) and he thinks the stock is now undervalued, you think he'll jump in tomorrow and begin buying? Don't count on it.
      View article »
    • Sun Feb 24th 08:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jim Cramer's Mad Money, 2/22/08: Rally Round the Cash
      Cramer talks out of both sides of his mouth whenever the opportunity presents itself. Cash in on a rally? Sounds like daytrading techniques to me. But isn't Cramer's mission not only to entertain, but to educate? Yeah, maybe if you picked some of Cramer's dogs (like NSTK which he pushed on viewers for a good 9 months) selling on a rally makes sense. For the investor who bought a stock for it's future growth and ability to hold it long-term (not just the next 2 months or 2 weeks as all of Cramer's picks are intended) while that growth takes place, a rally has no relevance on the merits of whether it is time to sell a stock.

      Remember, Cramer is the man who claimed:

      1. Clear sailing after the Fed announced the first rate cut (we've all seen the YouTube replay of the wild man telling the Fed they know nothing, and then when they did what he said he was all happy), everything was then under control, we were out of danger, tech stocks are where you want to be

      2. DJIA would close 2007 at 14,548

      3. Many other things that he relies on the short-term memory of Wall St. (and his viewers) to forget.

      Cramer is nothing more than a comedian who is only good enough for CNBC.
      View article »
    • Sun Feb 10th 08:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      EZCORP: It's Easy to Own This Stock
      PAYDAY LOAN is all you need to read.

      You can throw around all the technical metrics and valuation analysis you like. However, this business is nothing more than legalized loan sharking.

      Anyone consdering EZPW (or competition mentioned) might first want to educate themselves with payday loans, usury laws, and the public backlash against them.



      online.wsj.com/article...

      www.azcentral.com/ariz...

      www.fredericksburg.com...

      www.laurinburgexchange...

      consumerist.com/tag/us.../
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 31st 21:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      4 Microcaps Warren Buffett Would Love
      To extend your analysis a little, as Buffett and Graham would say, cashflow returned to the shareholder in the form of dividends is also important. DCU = 5%, ELSE = 3.1%, AIRT = 2.7%, WSCI = 1.5%.

      Disclosure - I own DCU and have looked at and considered purchasing the other 3 at various times over the past couple years.
      View article »
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