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  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Andrew Baker

    you are more right than most will ever know. Silver and gold, silver and gold . . .

    Yep, it's starting: they'll inflate the debt away, they think. In the meantime, gold and oil and the like will go north at a rate of knots, and the US $ will head southwards. We'll also get treated to a lot of irrelevant chatter and going-nowhere "disputes" (like the AIG bonuses) to try to get us on side and stop us noticing what's really happening.
    Mar 19 17:48 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Very true Hedged In,

    Good article. It would be interested in knowing exactly what the actual increase in debt has been thusfar, and where the directed numbers are taking us in regards to national debt. From my simplistic models using growth charts over the last century (pop, GDP, debt, etc.) I am finding that by 2015 we will hit a 34 T Public debt. That is eliminating all extra deficit spending by 2010, which is now a wholly ridiculous assumption. It appears we may approach 50 T with servicing costs, etc. People are just starting to bring numbers to the table and speaking out about this. Thta is not a sustainable debt.

    The only thing that is happening here, is that we are moving the over leveraged part of our economic system to the gov which will then become weaker, and much more vulnerable to economic attack. We should be embarrassed to be letting all of this happen.

    I agree that this rally is not sustainable. I am in for a short ride, maybe til earnings start coming in.
    Mar 19 08:49 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    bobbobwhite -

    I am organizing with people for April 15th and 9/12 (my birthday). It is up to you. Define your principles and values, live by them, and identify those who know what their principles and values are.

    It is an identification process. If living by principles and values becomes illegal, then help us all.
    Mar 18 12:40 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I see that testimony from CEO's now makes the economic calendar. AIG this, AIG that. It is a nice diversion. I guess the fact that the new administration so joyously offer small business in America 15 billion while AIG gets 170 billion (with no end in sight). Am I the only one who sees a serious problem with this?
    Mar 18 08:33 am |Rating: +8 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I am very curious about the mark-to-market modification. What does "significant judgment" mean? Is that a new legalese term? It seems to make sense to me to modify the rules such that maturity dates of 10 years or greater would not be subject, but how does that equate to significant judgment?
    Mar 17 08:22 am |Rating: +8 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    axelrod,

    let us just hope that we see a continued rally so this spring when when cap and trade comes into the spotlight, they won't be able to push a stimulus 2 (as an actual rebate)at the same time to give an illusion that the bottom 95% will get a rebate from the Cap and Trade program. That is surely how they will drum support and leave the two completely separate. I totally agree with you, but we have to ever cognizant of the reality of our government. Cards are so far up the sleeves it is like they have a full deck hidden, and claiming just one deck being played with.

    Also, be very wary of what is coming out of Copenhagen this week at the Climate Conference. Cap and Trade may work on a very small scale, but I get the feeling this global in scope. There is a lot of hand waving going on, and whenever I ask on of these "Climate experts" to show a viable forward and reverse model that doesn't explode, the can't. My education was in geophysics, and these experts claim that they need geophysicists to work on the problem, but very few geophysicists agree with them as far as I can tell.

    Just watch it very carefully, and expect extremely underhanded tricks. This is apolitical movement and it has nothing to do with anything but selling a product that has no value.
    Mar 13 11:22 am |Rating: +6 -1 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    I am curious as to who believes Lewis and Pandit?
    Mar 13 09:12 am |Rating: +6 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    This is starting to get ridiculous folks . . .

    FRE, PRU, HIG, MET?

    Is it going to stop?

    WE have to start paying attention. I took the data from bea.gov, and census.gov and mapped public debt, population growth and particularly per capita public debt over the last 100 years.

    With the extra spending last year, and estimate additional 3 trillion this year with - 4% GDP, and -2% GDP for 2010 with 2 trillion in additional deficit spending in 2010. And flat GDP until 2015 with no deficit spending, our public debt (state, local and federal) will be 34 trillion dollars in 2015. That does not include any additional deficit spending and debt servicing costs.

    Our per capita debt will double by the end of 2010 at 80K for every man, woman and child. Our federal debt will double in the same time period. Am I the only one who sees a problem with this?

    If you want the xcel spreadsheet, just write. I was worried that my estimates were too high for additional spending, but it appears they may be too low.

    Mar 12 10:10 am |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    does anyone else see how asinine it is to let a company survive whose loses are 62 Bln in one quarter . . .

    beat 'em down with a big stick.

    We really have to get rid of this idea that something, anything is too big to fail. Let them fall!

    Bring back the free market!
    Mar 02 08:56 am |Rating: +11 -1 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    In regards to GM

    "Why prop grandpa up in the living room next to the fire place when he died three months ago. He's starting to smell. "

    Seriously folks, why add to the burden. It is called a jettison. We need more jettisons.
    Feb 17 09:15 am |Rating: +4 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    James,

    since when did you believe it would be anything but?

    Seriously, the political and financial elite could care less about you. It is just becoming more obvious.
    Feb 11 08:22 am |Rating: +8 -3 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    you all want to take down the banks? Stop paying your credit cards.
    Jan 16 08:42 am |Rating: +2 -4 |Link to Comment
  • Deepwater Drillers: Not in a Very Deep Hole [View article]
    nothing is ever pure unless humans make it so.

    It's the God thing.
    Dec 31 07:25 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Deepwater Drillers: Not in a Very Deep Hole [View article]
    Alan,

    The geophysical environs in Brazil, and all of the transform faults that are there make for a very tricky drilling environment. And at depth. Those holes are deep.

    I just visited your website. I would love to read what you have written on the field in question. It is a very complex area . . . and the cooking was dicey and fluids have been so mobile. I would love to know more. I haven't done anything with that type of environ since about 2004.

    Thanks . . .

    You can find me on my contact page on my website if you would like to forward a link . . .
    Dec 29 22:02 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Deepwater Drillers: Not in a Very Deep Hole [View article]
    Alan,

    I have heard news that Mexico is drying up. Now, Brazil's new recent find has rallied reserves but it is not enough to fill the void should China's economy stabilize and remain in the positive growth territory.

    That being said, there are many more emerging markets that are increasing the demand even with this downturn. We will have to see what happens in the next 6 months to get a better picture. I am a bit worried about the commercial real estate and what implications that might have on lending in the next year. Time will tell.

    Now, Oil shales are a last reserve desperate attempt (with today's technology) to compete with easy oil of the middle east. I think one should look at that being the oil that runs the infrastructure when most are too poor to go visit grandma in the nursing home. And here is where the big issue is with the oil game. Oil services (with the exclusion of small exploration companies, et cetera) are not subject to short term fluctuations in oil prices. You seem to understand the oil industry well enough to know that a short time period for the Oil industry is 2-3 years. They just can't mobilize that quickly so why pay attention to it? XOM et cetera think in term of 5 - 10 years. They have to. In today's world, the average human mind thinks in terms of days to months at the most. There is a big disconnect there. Oil services are always a long term play, although if there were smart people, some (RIG) can played on the short term.

    One thing we should be looking for in the next six months is to what the countries who depend on oild prices at a stable level, ($75 so they say) need to stay afloat, and what they are willing to do should Oil prices remain low.

    I personally think there will be pipeline attacks, escalation of mid east tensions, and other disruptions and fear mongering that will send oil prices back to the 70 - 90 range in the next 4 months. Wait for the next puppet to take office, that is when it will really start. While RIG has been following closely to the per barrel price lately, it really shouldn't be, that is the truth, and you know it. Compare to DO (although RIG has greater deep water exposure). Oil prices will not remain low. Devalue the dollar, start the next commodity boom! PRINT . . . PRINT . . . PRINT.
    Dec 29 09:12 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment
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