daffy

http://www.angelheartwoodworking.com
Total Rating:
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81 Comments

    • Mon Mar 10th 18:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success
      Since it isn't my job to cheer people up, I am not even going to go there. However, if you want me to try, I charge about $500 per hour for said services.

      If you are a moron for cost averaging through a downturn, well, I guess I am one too, and there are plenty more where I came from. I know a lot of people right now who wish they had more money to put into the market, a lot more money.

      That'll be $500. Oooops, I forgot to tell you that I have a one hour minimum. One hundred shares of ETFC will do.

      Ooops, got off track there. USER162264. Just checking to see if you might be around somewhere. I would really like to hear more from you on the topic of speculation vs. fact. Can anyone else enlighten this pumper elf?
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 10th 12:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success
      User,

      I really don't think that they will be writing down a full BLN this year. I really don't. I see their portfolio as stronger than the average joes, and much stronger than CFC. I didn't work for ETFC, so I do not know what their porfolio actually looks like, but everything I read, and everything that comes out tells me that their loan losses will be much less than their predictions.

      The thing that gets me is this. Have you seen public announcement of CFC predicting their loan losses, allowances and writedowns for the next year? Why is it that Etrade is at the forefront of all of this? Why are they the ones getting butchered? Shouldn't it be CFC that is getting butchered? Oh wait, they are. I am beginning to think that the reason ETFC is getting all this bad press is because of these other VERY large lenders are setting up a smoke screen. Now the smoke is clearing, and not that Etrade is shining, but I do think it is going to lokbetter than all of the others. Seriously, if ETFC is going to go under, I can only assume (and quite favorably), that every single large lender will fold and no one will bailout anyone, definitely leaving the entire world in a prolonged depression.

      I do hear what you are saying, but I want to see proof that their current allowances are eaten up by charge-offs? Where are you getting this information? Please forward a link so I can see it. That is a pretty serious accusation, and could have enormous investor relation issues. Are you speculating, or actually speaking fact? If fact, I would really like to see it, especially when I just tripled my position at $3.65. If you are speculating, then you should say so. Speculation is very important as well, but there is a difference between speculation and fact.

      OK, I have to get back to work.

      User, please inform.

      Thank you.

      Seller, bullish on Etrade is not a bad thing. It seems like there are two distinct sides to the fence for this issue. It will be an interesting play. Will it be a tragedy? Or will it be Glory of God resurrection? Probably somewhere in between.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 10th 12:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success
      S&P has been increasing the target price over the last month. It was as low as $2.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 10th 09:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success
      Just a quick focal point. QTR ending 12/31/07. 500 mln allowance on 30 billion. 1.66%.

      ASSUMING that the current rate of default and delinquency continues in Etrade's portfolio (which the current RV portfolio has a DELINQUENCY RATE of 1.1%). The end of the year ALLOWANCE will be 1.96 BLN.

      That is the allowance, not the charge off. The charge off was roughly one quarter of that bringing that number down to 490 MLN for the year. I seem to remember that the statement of 1.5 BLN was a charge off statement, I may be wrong. I still don't see the doomsday scenario you propose.

      Now, I have not yet had time to look at the 700 mln you are talking about, I will try and find it later. Please enlighten us as to how you concluded that. I didn't see any statement about 700 mln and writedown anywhere. I could have missed though. It is early and I have yet to have my coffee.

      I really think you are painting a doomsday picture. ETFC is not CFC. They both have a fc in them, but they are not the same company. Just wanted to clarify that. If what you say really happens, I think we all should seriously consider as to whether you want to stay in the US as it will fold. We all should consider it. Seriously, you underestimate the resilience of people. Especially those with good credit.

      More later . . . I am sure

      View article »
    • Sun Mar 9th 16:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Read This Before Buying E*Trade
      After I wrote that, I figured you must have . . . the "pretty" gave it away. Forgive me for my lack of coffee in the AM.

      If BAC would punt on CFC, then I would retract on the tendon comment. I am not sure I would do a short term play on CFC even if it dropped to $3.00. It just really feels like CFC is REALLY unraveling, and the rope is running out, and it is raining, and someone smeared grease all over El Capitan. There may be something much bigger than two companies here at play.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 9th 11:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Read This Before Buying E*Trade
      newcomer,

      thank you.

      being a numbers guy, I appreciate this type of stuff. Models are good, and I in good faith have to take your model, the ONLY model I have seen, and go with it.

      I just want to say one thing. I am calling on $15 by the end of the year, prescient is calling $15 1Q09. Close enough when we look at time lines and the fact that I am in at about $4. It was great to see that Prescient corrected the cost of the 1.75B. It was nice to see that you ran the model again with the limited constraint, but the first showed the importance of the variables(and the ones that matter). I have to assume (and hopefully not to liberally), that the powers that be at Etrade know these potentially wayward variables and are taking measures to correct them (i.e. refinance the whole 1.75B with a new win of a government auction). I know very little about all of this, but isn't it possible that Etrade could, over the next year, refinance that down to 8%? Is there a prepayment? et cetera?

      In any case, from what I can see of your numbers, and taking into account quaismatter's account of default rates and how they affect
      the mortgage portfolio, it seems to me like prescient and I are not too far off on our calls, especially if Etrade can muster a 8% growth rate.


      I now, thanks to jbmaria, have earned the name "pumper elf". Wow, I do not know what to say. I am kind of flattered. I guess the light at the end of the tunnel might not be a freight train after all. Imagine that for all of these years I have expected a train, to my suprise, to my suprise. Thank you jbmaria, for bringing me peace.

      And Rich:

      "Anyway, as far as the financials in general: Hey, look the tide mysteriously went out and there are so many pretty seashells out there, lets go collect some!"

      now that is scary . . . very scary. Have you ever heard of a tsunami? That is how people get washed out to sea.

      It is my personal opinion that BAC is about to have one of it's achilles tendons cut. It is already too fat to maneuver too much.

      View article »
    • Sat Mar 8th 13:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financials and Retail: Not as Dire as They Seem
      I love it:

      "give yourself some time for stupid to be finished"
      View article »
    • Sat Mar 8th 08:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financials and Retail: Not as Dire as They Seem
      Don't agree with retail at all. I have a lot of discretionary income and I have to say, it is going into the market right now, not to BBY, or JWN, or a new car, et cterea. The spending of my discretionary income has gone almost to zero. If that is the case with someone who has discretionary income, what say about those who don't?

      Financials? whoa . . . I made a few bucks on the cfc-bac deal. Might make a few more if CFC gets down to four and BAC stays put. Doubt it though, it will have to look pretty darned good. Although, a 3/4 point reduction might just get one a good short term gain on the deal. Timing there. Now might be the time to get into that one, or next week. Other than that, well, I am staying away from financials. Too risky. The only financial I am playing with right now is ETFC (and some might say I am crazy for doing that).

      The hypothesis about 02-03 prices is interesting. If you take the 80 month EMA, and find that the stock price is under that AND is under the 2002 share price, you might have a stock that is worth investigating (in financials and retail). BAC falls short by about 5$ on the share price. I would say that is too risky right now. If the price went to $29, yeah, I would buy. This summer isn't going to be very nice to financial stocks, but there will be a few winners, and they will bethe agressive ones.

      Opinions and conjecture.

      embarassing disclosure: 1% of my portfolio is CFC @ $16.80. OUCH.
      View article »
    • Sat Mar 8th 07:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success
      Believe me, I have been thinking of doubling my position in Etrade for a week now . . . I will make a decision next week sometime. Like I said, even if there is a buy-out, and you said it yourself, the stock will only appreciate so much. I will hold on after that. Etrade has a good business retail platform, and I believe that it would be very foolish to change that who ever owns/takes control. Good business ideas AND good executions of those ideas are rare, and obvious when they show up. Etrade is an example of this. I do think that I will end up selling more in the $15 dollar range later in the year. I may be wrong. I personally think any rancid debt that etrade holds will be long gone by then. You have to remember, there are plenty of people out there right now who are paying thier mortgages. If you call Etrade and mention that you would like to refinance your home, and tell them you need to finish remodeling your bathroom, or tell them that you credit score is 702, or some other seemingly inane item that really shouldn't matter too much, I think that you will find that they really don't even want to talk to you. They are simply shutting out all potential risky debt. In the next 9 months, you will see that eTrade will minimize their exposure to risky debt by increasing the good, and getting rid of the bad. They have had this plan in effect for awhile now, and have been more astute than any other firm as far as I can see. Again, I see strength in integrity, in a good business model, and very good execution of that model. I see no reason why a buyout would destroy these items unless someone was really trying to just take that whole business model and shove it down the drain. That would be just plain foolish, don't you think? Look at the customer loyalty this company has. Not even the AAPL heads have this kind of loyalty. The AAPLer's would drop everything(possibly even thier iPhone) for a different flavor of coffee(remember, it is a fad). Etrade's customers have been called Etrade marines. They are affluent. They are wise. They are having fun. They are doing something they plan to do for the rest of their lives. To trash them by doing anything wrong would be a mistake, a big mistake. Etrade has been long forgiven by it's customer base for the subprime snafu. These people are loyal for all of the above reasons. This is the reason why I do not pay attention to your buy-out talk. Yes it helps, but why not let a quick buck turn into a continuing quick buck. I am saying the same thing you are, hold on for an enjoyable ride. The only thing a buyout does for me right now, is makes at least a 50% short term gain gauranteed. For those who held on through this entire dowturn, they MAY have some piece of mind knowing that their value will return (if they can get over the fear of the buyout terms and how that will affect the company).

      In short, I will believe the buy-out talk when I see it. For now, I will focus on how vested, and at what price I want to be in Etrade (for the next year).
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 7th 18:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success
      I didn't buy into etrade to sell until their real value was realized and the rate of return dropped below 15%. End of story. I do not expect this to happen anytime soon. After the elections, that is for sure. So, you have my shorts.

      I may not have 20 years market experience, but I do know that when some guy comes online and starts screaming about how much they know, it is a good sign that something is amiss, very amiss. It is kind of like getting your retirement advice from the yahoos on Craigslist.
      View article »
    • Fri Mar 7th 17:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success
      for those of you even thinking that short seller cares . . .

      https://us.etrade.com/...

      Don't listen to his jibberish . . .

      View article »
    • Fri Mar 7th 15:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success
      End of Business day is approaching quickly.

      Curious as to the smell of your shorts . . .
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 6th 16:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success
      PJ, would you please postthe link to the article where Layton said to expect another 1.5 B.

      I couldn't find anything.

      Mr Egan. You are the first person I have ever heard of having a bad experience with Etrade. Sorry to hear that. I have had nothing but a wonderful experience (except over the last few days with my portfolio crying). Oh well, if the world ends tomorrow, I am just a bit poorer than I was yesterday. Can't really blame Etrade for the world ending too soon now can I?
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 6th 07:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success
      prescient11 ~

      I am almost kicking myself right now for choosing GRMN over ETFC when it was at $3.80 the other day. Maybe it is good that I waited. Reagrdless, I have confidence in Etrade. They have a great platform. I also think that people are paying their mortgages even though their home value dropped and that the rate of defaults will range widely with various banks. I think ETFC will have the lowest, or if not the lowest, very close to it. Personal opinion.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 6th 07:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Contrarian Indicator: Analyst Buy Ratings
      To all you naysayers . . .

      If the pundits and analyst had their say about the direction of the economy and the media propaganda, T-rexes would be roaming the earth will-nilly and what humans that were left would be scampering around with limbs bleeding due to fear alone.

      Lighten up a bit, and you might make some money. This piece may be a far cry from the more positive recovery spins I would like to see coming out of the pundits and analsyts (has anyone ever noticed the presence of anal in analyst?). All I see is "the sky is falling, you are going to die". I am bored. At least this piece was humorous and gave me a break.

      I even bought ETFC at $3.14. Right when everyone was screaming sell. Oh well, I guess I made the wrong decision there. I don't think they sell $3.14 lottery tickets, do they?
      View article »
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