Sharp45

The Recession Is Already Priced Into Stocks

I'll play devil's advocate. I think stocks are still overpriced, and that earnings are likely to crash worldwide:

2/3rds of U.S. economy is consumer spending. And that's just starting to nosedive, will get a lot worse. Consumer debt is at record levels (not to mention gov and corporate).

Layoffs just picking up speed now, don't see unemployment improving in the foreseeable future.

Non-saavy investors are just now realizing something is wrong. Many will be pulling their money out soon. Yes, there is a lot of $ on the sidelines, but I think most of that is very skeptical and has lost it's risk-appetite.

1/6 homeowners underwater on their mortgages. And his may be only the first wave of foreclosures. Alt-A loans and commercial are starting to look ugly.

Unfathomably large derivatives market adds to the chaos. Honestly, I don't understand this one completely. But what I do understand ain't pretty.

Add to this unfunded medicare and social security costs of around $35 trillion, with baby-boomers retiring.

Call me a pessimist, but I'm holding my short positions (while it's still legal) and not buying much yet. Looking to buy gold bullion once it gets cheap enough. Seems like deflation will eventually give way to inflation with the inevitable $ printing presses running.