Sharp45's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/146726/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/111272-0-financing-doesn-t-mean-it-s-free?source=feed#comment-332712 332712
Is a debt-funded spending-spree sustainable indefinitely? FYI, that's a rhetorical question. Of course it's not. At some point we have to stop spending at current levels, and it's going to crush our consumer-funded economy for a while. Like a college student graduating with 100k in credit card debt, we're about to get smacked in the face.

If we're smart (unlikely) the markets/economy will be reborn in a more efficient and risk-averse form, and we'll grow from there. But we have a nasty crash headed our way some time in the near future, and we're just delaying the pain.

Advice for the Fed: "Don't just do something, stand there".]]> Wed, 17 Dec 2008 23:13:50 -0500
Is a debt-funded spending-spree sustainable indefinitely? FYI, that's a rhetorical question. Of course it's not. At some point we have to stop spending at current levels, and it's going to crush our consumer-funded economy for a while. Like a college student graduating with 100k in credit card debt, we're about to get smacked in the face.

If we're smart (unlikely) the markets/economy will be reborn in a more efficient and risk-averse form, and we'll grow from there. But we have a nasty crash headed our way some time in the near future, and we're just delaying the pain.

Advice for the Fed: "Don't just do something, stand there".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110401-excluding-five-worst-states-november-2008-foreclosures-down-by-1-10?source=feed#comment-328099 328099
We will never completely stop propping up home prices artificially, but doing so at current levels is insane. Mortgage interest tax write-offs and artificially low rates have done more than enough. There is absolutely no need to further fan the flames with principal reductions, mega-low-rates, and other morally hazardous reward structures.]]> Sat, 13 Dec 2008 02:48:32 -0500
We will never completely stop propping up home prices artificially, but doing so at current levels is insane. Mortgage interest tax write-offs and artificially low rates have done more than enough. There is absolutely no need to further fan the flames with principal reductions, mega-low-rates, and other morally hazardous reward structures.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105825-gold-bugs-beware?source=feed#comment-305764 305764
If the economy recovers, precious metals rebound too. But gold and silver also serve as protection against nightmare scenarios like the dollar collapsing. Unlikely, but it is possible.]]> Fri, 14 Nov 2008 01:30:56 -0500
If the economy recovers, precious metals rebound too. But gold and silver also serve as protection against nightmare scenarios like the dollar collapsing. Unlikely, but it is possible.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105690-reits-are-gold-mines-on-the-short-side?source=feed#comment-305749 305749
Today was especially gut-wrenching, though. I've been trading SRS for a few months, sold a bunch(for me) at $176 from $105 last month, was pretty happy.

Bought more on the way down, some at $140, then more at $110. I had a limit-sell order in at $185 this afternoon when I left for the dentist, and it was trading around $182. I figured it would hit $185 again, and still think it will in the near future. But it closed today at $134? Wow.]]> Fri, 14 Nov 2008 00:46:23 -0500
Today was especially gut-wrenching, though. I've been trading SRS for a few months, sold a bunch(for me) at $176 from $105 last month, was pretty happy.

Bought more on the way down, some at $140, then more at $110. I had a limit-sell order in at $185 this afternoon when I left for the dentist, and it was trading around $182. I figured it would hit $185 again, and still think it will in the near future. But it closed today at $134? Wow.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104229-forecasters-see-a-bear-market-till-mid-2009?source=feed#comment-299058 299058
If recovery means getting back to 2007 highs, that seems unlikely in the next 5 years, maybe 15. Stimulus packages and bailouts may allow the pipe-dream to continue a little longer. But confidence is broken, corporate responsibility is out the window.]]> Wed, 05 Nov 2008 21:33:20 -0500
If recovery means getting back to 2007 highs, that seems unlikely in the next 5 years, maybe 15. Stimulus packages and bailouts may allow the pipe-dream to continue a little longer. But confidence is broken, corporate responsibility is out the window.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100460-google-3q-results-reveal-chinks-in-the-armor?source=feed#comment-290621 290621
If you really think a combined Microsoft and Yahoo will preset a formidable challenge to Google, I would guess you have a poor understanding of the search-advertising market. No offense. Most people don't.

I work with the 3 major search engines every day, spent about $1.5 million on search advertising so far this year.

#1 - Search advertising is an auction/bidding based system. You bid on keywords, and whoever has the highest bid and the best ad gets their ad placed higher (more traffic/leads). Read up on Google's quality score if you're not familiar with this process. If people are getting great sales/leads from Google at x price, will they decrease their spending if microsoft and yahoo merge? No.

#2 - Microsoft and Yahoo's search technology isn't even close to Google's. Their results just aren't as good, period. Their advertising platforms lag far, far behind as well.

If Microsoft does buy Yahoo, they'll probably insist that Microsoft's search remains the main platform, and Yahoo features be integrated. What a disaster that would be, ugh. Bickering engineers, red-tape hell, etc.

If you think a Yahoo/Microsoft merger will solve these problems.... Good luck to you sir.

Google is suffering from the downturn, just like everyone else. But I'm holding my shares and waiting to buy more.]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 03:55:47 -0400
If you really think a combined Microsoft and Yahoo will preset a formidable challenge to Google, I would guess you have a poor understanding of the search-advertising market. No offense. Most people don't.

I work with the 3 major search engines every day, spent about $1.5 million on search advertising so far this year.

#1 - Search advertising is an auction/bidding based system. You bid on keywords, and whoever has the highest bid and the best ad gets their ad placed higher (more traffic/leads). Read up on Google's quality score if you're not familiar with this process. If people are getting great sales/leads from Google at x price, will they decrease their spending if microsoft and yahoo merge? No.

#2 - Microsoft and Yahoo's search technology isn't even close to Google's. Their results just aren't as good, period. Their advertising platforms lag far, far behind as well.

If Microsoft does buy Yahoo, they'll probably insist that Microsoft's search remains the main platform, and Yahoo features be integrated. What a disaster that would be, ugh. Bickering engineers, red-tape hell, etc.

If you think a Yahoo/Microsoft merger will solve these problems.... Good luck to you sir.

Google is suffering from the downturn, just like everyone else. But I'm holding my shares and waiting to buy more.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101805-the-recession-is-already-priced-into-stocks?source=feed#comment-290535 290535 BEARX) for a while, and added some Grizzly bear fund GRZZX last month.

Basehitz - keep in mind that SeekingAlpha and other sites do NOT reflect your average investor.

Every non-financial-junkie I talk to keeps repeating the mantra of "just hold on through times like these, my financial advisor told me this is actually the best time to buy!"

The vast, vast majority of America and the world still have no idea about the true scale of the crisis. Most of them stocks are cheap now, but it's just everyone getting scared and selling in a panic. Scared is right, but scared about earnings that are likely to nosedive.

I'm not covering or buying anything until I see some convincing signs that things are actually improving. "Stocks are cheap" doesn't do it for me. Bear markets (or depressions) usually overshoot to the downside. I don't think we're even at fair value yet, let alone have we overshot to the downside.]]> Sat, 25 Oct 2008 22:22:43 -0400 BEARX) for a while, and added some Grizzly bear fund GRZZX last month.

Basehitz - keep in mind that SeekingAlpha and other sites do NOT reflect your average investor.

Every non-financial-junkie I talk to keeps repeating the mantra of "just hold on through times like these, my financial advisor told me this is actually the best time to buy!"

The vast, vast majority of America and the world still have no idea about the true scale of the crisis. Most of them stocks are cheap now, but it's just everyone getting scared and selling in a panic. Scared is right, but scared about earnings that are likely to nosedive.

I'm not covering or buying anything until I see some convincing signs that things are actually improving. "Stocks are cheap" doesn't do it for me. Bear markets (or depressions) usually overshoot to the downside. I don't think we're even at fair value yet, let alone have we overshot to the downside.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101802-happy-sad-news-foreclosure-sales-climb?source=feed#comment-290055 290055
They never include the % of sales that are foreclosures. His statement about 80% of purchases being primary residences doesn't mean much. Obviously there's less speculation with tanking prices. I'm curious what the overall % of these sales were in foreclosure.

A few saavy buyers waited for prices to drop before buying, but I think it'll be a brief boost. There are only so many people who can actually afford a home in the U.S., and we're still way overbought.]]> Fri, 24 Oct 2008 22:39:47 -0400
They never include the % of sales that are foreclosures. His statement about 80% of purchases being primary residences doesn't mean much. Obviously there's less speculation with tanking prices. I'm curious what the overall % of these sales were in foreclosure.

A few saavy buyers waited for prices to drop before buying, but I think it'll be a brief boost. There are only so many people who can actually afford a home in the U.S., and we're still way overbought.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101805-the-recession-is-already-priced-into-stocks?source=feed#comment-290032 290032
2/3rds of U.S. economy is consumer spending. And that's just starting to nosedive, will get a lot worse. Consumer debt is at record levels (not to mention gov and corporate).

Layoffs just picking up speed now, don't see unemployment improving in the foreseeable future.

Non-saavy investors are just now realizing something is wrong. Many will be pulling their money out soon. Yes, there is a lot of $ on the sidelines, but I think most of that is very skeptical and has lost it's risk-appetite.

1/6 homeowners underwater on their mortgages. And his may be only the first wave of foreclosures. Alt-A loans and commercial are starting to look ugly.

Unfathomably large derivatives market adds to the chaos. Honestly, I don't understand this one completely. But what I do understand ain't pretty.

Add to this unfunded medicare and social security costs of around $35 trillion, with baby-boomers retiring.

Call me a pessimist, but I'm holding my short positions (while it's still legal) and not buying much yet. Looking to buy gold bullion once it gets cheap enough. Seems like deflation will eventually give way to inflation with the inevitable $ printing presses running.]]> Fri, 24 Oct 2008 22:09:38 -0400
2/3rds of U.S. economy is consumer spending. And that's just starting to nosedive, will get a lot worse. Consumer debt is at record levels (not to mention gov and corporate).

Layoffs just picking up speed now, don't see unemployment improving in the foreseeable future.

Non-saavy investors are just now realizing something is wrong. Many will be pulling their money out soon. Yes, there is a lot of $ on the sidelines, but I think most of that is very skeptical and has lost it's risk-appetite.

1/6 homeowners underwater on their mortgages. And his may be only the first wave of foreclosures. Alt-A loans and commercial are starting to look ugly.

Unfathomably large derivatives market adds to the chaos. Honestly, I don't understand this one completely. But what I do understand ain't pretty.

Add to this unfunded medicare and social security costs of around $35 trillion, with baby-boomers retiring.

Call me a pessimist, but I'm holding my short positions (while it's still legal) and not buying much yet. Looking to buy gold bullion once it gets cheap enough. Seems like deflation will eventually give way to inflation with the inevitable $ printing presses running.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98937-roubini-was-right?source=feed#comment-276382 276382
But this qualifier attached to your quasi-apology makes it completely worthless:

"At some point, Nouriel will be too bearish."

What does that mean, exactly? If the S&P dives another 40% over the next 12 months, will he have been too bearish? So far it looks like he foretold this crisis pretty damn well, and took a lot of heat from journalists like yourself in the process.

At this point I'm in favor of handing over the reigns of the bailout to Roubini and a hand-picked group of economists he trusts. Better him than the all-Goldman team currently in charge. No conflict of interest with investment bankers in charge of bailing out the investment bankers, no sir....]]> Tue, 07 Oct 2008 21:35:07 -0400
But this qualifier attached to your quasi-apology makes it completely worthless:

"At some point, Nouriel will be too bearish."

What does that mean, exactly? If the S&P dives another 40% over the next 12 months, will he have been too bearish? So far it looks like he foretold this crisis pretty damn well, and took a lot of heat from journalists like yourself in the process.

At this point I'm in favor of handing over the reigns of the bailout to Roubini and a hand-picked group of economists he trusts. Better him than the all-Goldman team currently in charge. No conflict of interest with investment bankers in charge of bailing out the investment bankers, no sir....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69046-why-buffett-would-not-buy-google?source=feed#comment-128169 128169
"the way the company makes 99% of its money is by putting publishers and advertisers together"

Google makes the vast majority of its profits from Adwords (ads that are on search results). There are no publishers involved in this aspect of their business, at any point. If you search for "car insurance" and click on a Geico ad, $5 (estimate) goes directly to Google.

The smaller part of their business is Adsense, which are text-ads on publisher sites. Lots of revenue here, but not nearly as much profit as Adwords. With Adsense, they pay publishers about 60-90% of the revenue generated per-click from advertisers. They keep 100% with Adwords.

So as long as Google dominates search (which should be a very long time, I think) their main source of profits will be intact and growing healthily.]]> Tue, 18 Mar 2008 10:09:40 -0400
"the way the company makes 99% of its money is by putting publishers and advertisers together"

Google makes the vast majority of its profits from Adwords (ads that are on search results). There are no publishers involved in this aspect of their business, at any point. If you search for "car insurance" and click on a Geico ad, $5 (estimate) goes directly to Google.

The smaller part of their business is Adsense, which are text-ads on publisher sites. Lots of revenue here, but not nearly as much profit as Adwords. With Adsense, they pay publishers about 60-90% of the revenue generated per-click from advertisers. They keep 100% with Adwords.

So as long as Google dominates search (which should be a very long time, I think) their main source of profits will be intact and growing healthily.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63127-is-google-scared?source=feed#comment-115309 115309 Fri, 08 Feb 2008 14:41:29 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63351-google-longs-consider-yourselves-lucky?source=feed#comment-114862 114862
Google has pulled back, it's a great value here. They will continue to dominate and extend their lead while Microhoo stumbles around, dazed and confused.]]> Wed, 06 Feb 2008 09:48:59 -0500
Google has pulled back, it's a great value here. They will continue to dominate and extend their lead while Microhoo stumbles around, dazed and confused.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/62753-despite-4q-miss-google-s-still-a-good-investment?source=feed#comment-114268 114268
Check out the earnings call, they go into this topic a few times. Reyes even refers to it one point as something that will probably be a one time "Q4 event".]]> Sat, 02 Feb 2008 20:35:50 -0500
Check out the earnings call, they go into this topic a few times. Reyes even refers to it one point as something that will probably be a one time "Q4 event".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/62696-google-a-buy-on-msft-yhoo-news?source=feed#comment-114197 114197 Sat, 02 Feb 2008 04:09:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/62696-google-a-buy-on-msft-yhoo-news?source=feed#comment-114193 114193
My take - They only missed avg earnings estimates by .01 after you remove stock option costs, they missed revenue by $60 million or 2%. One of the big factors for the quarter seems to be that they had to Myspace a bunch of cash in Q4 as part of their $900 million ad deal (was triggered by minimum payment clause).

Check out the conference call, they refer to the Myspace (or unnamed partner site, just guessing it's Myspace) payments as something that's probably just a one-time 4th qt event. Hopefully they won't make that mistake again. They're also doing a lot of ad-experiments to figure out what works on social media sites. It's not like search, harder to monetize and will take a bit to nail down.]]> Sat, 02 Feb 2008 02:07:00 -0500
My take - They only missed avg earnings estimates by .01 after you remove stock option costs, they missed revenue by $60 million or 2%. One of the big factors for the quarter seems to be that they had to Myspace a bunch of cash in Q4 as part of their $900 million ad deal (was triggered by minimum payment clause).

Check out the conference call, they refer to the Myspace (or unnamed partner site, just guessing it's Myspace) payments as something that's probably just a one-time 4th qt event. Hopefully they won't make that mistake again. They're also doing a lot of ad-experiments to figure out what works on social media sites. It's not like search, harder to monetize and will take a bit to nail down.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/62696-google-a-buy-on-msft-yhoo-news?source=feed#comment-114090 114090
I'm a search-marketer by trade, so I've seen the difference in how MSFT/YHOO and Google run their operations. There's no comparison. Google has the best platform by far.

Merging YHOO/MSFT ad platforms is gonna be ugly, unless they just decide to scrap Microsoft's.]]> Fri, 01 Feb 2008 13:17:58 -0500
I'm a search-marketer by trade, so I've seen the difference in how MSFT/YHOO and Google run their operations. There's no comparison. Google has the best platform by far.

Merging YHOO/MSFT ad platforms is gonna be ugly, unless they just decide to scrap Microsoft's.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/62666-say-goodnight-as-google-disappoints?source=feed#comment-114082 114082
I just read over the entire earnings call. Sounds like they had to pay Myspace or another partner site at a loss, because of guaranteed minimum payments written into the contract. They won't make that mistake again, I would imagine.

Still incredible growth and potential in core business, international, mobile, apps for enterprise, etc etc. Microsoft/Yahoo cannot be considered a serious threat until they get their sh$@ together.]]> Fri, 01 Feb 2008 12:57:00 -0500
I just read over the entire earnings call. Sounds like they had to pay Myspace or another partner site at a loss, because of guaranteed minimum payments written into the contract. They won't make that mistake again, I would imagine.

Still incredible growth and potential in core business, international, mobile, apps for enterprise, etc etc. Microsoft/Yahoo cannot be considered a serious threat until they get their sh$@ together.]]>