jimmy46

FDIC, FHA, Fannie and Freddie Real Estate Exposure Killing Home Values in Georgia

We know that the biggest source of default in the current cycle is that borrowers are so far underwater they have no economic incentive to pay. So they don’t.""""

That's like saying those people who had stock losses last March should have sold at the bottom of the market.
RE will rebound, just like stocks have, and those that hang on will be glad they did.

Anyone who defaults now won't be able to buy another house for at least 10 years.
What kind of idiot wants to put himself in that position?

ConocoPhillips Plans Two Year Makeover

Hello Tom
Zacks has a blog about COP today:

"ConocoPhillips’ earnings from its LUKOIL Investment segment came in at $545 million as against $438 million in the prior-year quarter.
The year-over-year increase came primarily from refinery throughput.
LUKOIL’s estimated contribution to the company’s quarterly E&P volumes was 424,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
The Chemicals unit reported earnings of $104 million as against earnings of $46 million a year ago.

I assume the "Chemicals" isn't related to Lukoil,
but zack's editing made it hard to be sure.

I also assume that the $545,000,000 earnings they got from Lukoil is a bookkeeping entry and that they got no cash from them.

finance.yahoo.com/news...

How to Play the Gold / Silver Ratio

Fussing about the ratio is silly, times change.

Today so much silver is a by product of copper mining that holds the price down.
And the copper miners aren't going to reduce mining just because silver isn't selling "up to it's ratio".

Future or No Future: Siblings Molybdenum and Nickel

That doesn't exist in the world of moly, a mineral that lacks a futures market yet has world wide applications.""""""

If anyone doubts that it is speculators that have doubled the price of oil this year, look here.

Goldman Stockholders - What Chumps

I knew that the day they had their IPO,

The wonder is that so many people still don't get it.

A sucker is still born every minute.

Why a Gold Bug Isn't Buying Gold Now

The one thing we know is that at no point in history have we ever seen such a snap back in equity prices in such a short period of time""""""

And the fed government has never printed money like they have in the last year.
What's the surprise?

Ackman Shorts Realty Income, But Is It a Good Idea?

"more amazingly, offer stock in lieu of cash dividends (imagine cash income investors voluntarily accepting more of a stock as a dividend of a company that can't afford to pay the cash dividend that you invested in the company for):"

REIT's are required by law to distribute 90% of net income every year. Because the credit markets weren't working well this year,
the IRS made the decision to let them pay 90% of the dividend in stock.
This allows them to maintain their status as a tax favored REIT.

For the last 20 years the FED has bailed out the stock market after every crisis, now that so many people are underwater with their home mortgages, I believe gov. policy is to inflate real estate prices so people won't walk away from their houses.

This inflationary policy is evidenced by the stock market going up in an extraordinary manner the last 7 months.

Also in inflation in metal & oil prices.
Gold over $1,000, copper over $3, oil over $80

Companies with real assets and a lot of debt will benefit from this trash the dollar policy.

As long as interest rates are low, this will continue.
When the FED starts raising rates, it'll be time to reevaluate.

The Importance of Volcker

What a stupid idea,
The cost of capital is a cost of business.
Just like labor or materials.

The error is in taxing dividend payments.
Debt & equity should have the same tax treatment.

As for low tax receipts from corporations,
that's because of all the tax loopholes the lobbyist's have gotten from a corrupt congress.

Opportunities in Dual Share Classes

Here's another example of the disadvantage of buying low voting shares:
stocks.investopedia.co...

" you'd assume that Federated's total shareholder return would be exceptional.
It isn't. In fact, it lost 16.8% for shareholders over the last three years.

Then who's the beneficiary of this supposed wealth creation? The Donahue family is. It holds all 9,000 class A shares in the company, which are the only ones with voting privileges.

Controlling the board with just 9.4% of the class B stock, the Donahue clan occupies the top three jobs at the company, receiving $30 million in total compensation in the last three fiscal years.

That's wealth of the wrong kind. (Learn about voting privileges in Knowing Your Rights As A Shareholder.)""""

Goldman Bonuses Based on Socialist Policies, Not Capitalism

Before the election, Obaba said he'd raise taxes on the very rich.
So far, he's done nothing.
If these $33 million dollar bonuses were taxed at a higher rate,
the scoundrels wouldn't have such a rich haul.

At least social security taxes should be paid on all income,
only taxing the first $97,000 is a real give away.

Wynn Resorts: Unfavorable Conditions

Singapore is looking to cash in on gambling,
any forecasts as to how that'll impact Macau casinos?

Toward a New Theory of the Cost of Equty Capital

Forgive me, but either I don't understand what you're saying or you're contradicting yourself.

First you quote Merton:
"since the equity holders have the put option of giving the debt holders the firm if things go bad,
but the equity holders have all of the upside if things go well."

Then you say:
"As for common stocks, they should trade at an earnings or FCF yield greater than that of the highest after-tax yield on debts and other instruments."

Are you forgetting to value that Put option?
Having all the upside, even if it often doesn't realize, is worth a lot.

Enough that I rarely buy bonds.

Inflation and the Hierarchy of Needs

The FED has a problem trying to control the economy with interest rates.
Productive borrowers, ie business's looking to expand,
or people looking to buy a home to live in,
are very sensitive to increasing interest rates.

Speculators on the other hand,
are very much less affected,
in their mind, their speculation is going to make
50% or more in a year, so who cares about the difference
between a 5% and 6% interest rate?

Can the FED set different rates for speculators?
I don't think so.

Horsehead: No Longer the Zinc Value It Once Was

Well thought out, and well written,
I sold my zinc also,
thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Clues from the Options Market

Interesting and well written,
now what stocks have you screened and found changing volatility?

I know beta is the product of 2 numbers, so it's a bit flaky,
but to what extent is there a relationship between beta and
implied volatility?